by Randy Shaw on November 7, 2022 (beyondchron.org)
PA’s John Fetterman, LA’s Karen Bass, CA’s Yes on 30 and Oakland’s Sheng Thao
A National and/or California Blue Wave?
Here are our predictions for national control of Congress, key California ballot measures, and local races in Los Angeles, Culver City, Santa Monica, West Hollywood, Berkeley, and Oakland. I cover so many local races that I had to do an accompanying San Francisco story. The success of past predictions can be checked via our Search box. Predictions are based on who and what I believe will win, not who or what I want to win (though this often converges).
Control of Congress
The Senate
I always felt Democrats would maintain Senate control. I based this on vulnerable Republican seats in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and the likelihood that incumbent Democrats would all win. I’ve also felt that 2022 would be very different from the red wave election of 2010. The Democratic base is motivated and mobilizing to vote. I think young voters will come out to shape America’s future on November 8.
If you are wondering—what about all those polls showing a red wave?—well, if you read Daily Kos you know that aggregate polling has been swayed by GOP-funded polls. In non-partisan polls Democrats are either ahead or tied in key races.
I am surprised that Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson can still win. Senators backing Social Security cuts and aligning with Russia against the United States used to have no chance. Wisconsin is no longer “progressive” but I thought the recent victory by a Democratic Governor would mean Johnson was toast. I’m predicting a Mandela Barnes victory but the race is a tossup.
I’ve always felt Fetterman would beat Oz. I don’t see Pennsylvania voters electing a New Jersey resident to represent them. Especially one with a history of killing hundreds of dogs.
I know incumbent Senate Democrats in Nevada and Arizona face tough fights but think both win. Always put your faith in Culinary Workers Local 226 to swing Nevada.
Democrats are aggressively competing in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina. I don’t believe any will win. Hope I’m wrong.
The House
The main reason Democrats will likely lose the House is that Republican-dominated federal courts upheld gerrymandering in red states while the Democratic gerrymandering of New York was thrown out and replaced by a Republican-friendly map. I felt prior to the New York court ruling that Democrats could pick up several seats in California and New York to make up for those lost elsewhere.
In other words, Republicans rigged the system to take House control. Shame on the national media for ignoring coverage of what Republicans plan to do with their House majority and instead framing the House races around gas prices.
California Ballot Measures
Despite huge spending, the two sports gambling ballot measures—Props 26 and 27—are headed for defeat. I don’t see a public clamor for more sports betting.
I regretfully see Prop 30 as also losing.
The California Teachers Association (CTA) aligned with Governor Newsom to oppose an initiative that taxes the rich to fund climate programs. CTA claims that Prop 30 “bypasses the state’s general fund and the voter-approved Prop 98 education funding guarantees.”
The taxpayers who CTA says Prop 30 is “forcing to pick up the tab” are millionaires. People who earn over $2 million. CTA and Newsom justify protecting the wealthy from a slight tax surcharge by wrongly redefining Prop 30 as a bailout for Lyft. This campaign strategy has turned many anti-corporate voters against the progressive measure. Despite strong environmental support, Prop 30 was still polling under 50% as of last week. That’s a sign it’s headed for defeat.
Los Angeles Races
The November 2022 election could positively transform Los Angeles. The racist tape increased the chances that candidates with progressive views on housing, tenants, homelessness and social justice will prevail.
Karen Bass will be Los Angeles’ next mayor. After a slow start she assembled a broad enough coalition to overcome the $100 million Rick Caruso donated to his campaign. Polls have the race narrowing, not a surprise given Caruso has spent roughly $100 million on his campaign. But I still see Bass winning.
Bass will need help. I think she will get it.
I foresee Hugo Soto-Martinez, Katy Young Yaroslavsky, and Erin Darling all winning council seats. I once felt oil company favorite Bob Hertzberg would use his ample funding to defeat Lindsey Horvath in the race for the powerful position of LA County Supervisor. But Horvath’s endorsements, the renewed urgency for reform and the generational contrast favoring Horvath has me believing she will pull off the win.
I also see Measure ULA winning. I think voters recognize that Los Angeles can’t reduce homelessness without funding more affordable housing. ULA only raises taxes on real estate sales over $5 million, which means it comes at no cost to most voters.
I’m also feeling more confident that Carolyn Menjivar will defeat Danny Hertzberg in a critical State Senate race in Los Angeles. LA voters want to move in a new direction rather than elect the offspring of outdated politicians.
Santa Monica
I wrote about the Santa Monica council race one month ago, urging support for Caroline Torosis, Natalya Zernitskaya, and Jesse Zwick as the three pro-housing, pro-tenant council candidates. I never mentioned the term “Builders’ Remedy.” But the law that penalizes cities for not complying with state housing requirements is now front-page news in Santa Monica. All because the current anti-housing “Change” council majority ignored state law. This opened the city to over a dozen projects that the “Builders’ Remedy” allows to exceed current zoning.
Torosis and Zwick are endorsed by the influential Santa Monica for Renters’ Rights (SMRR). They both will win. I think Zernitskaya will also win due to voter anger at a council majority whose anti-housing fanaticism could resort in a citywide building boom. All three progressive candidates were endorsed by the Santa Monica Democratic Club.
West Hollywood
I’ve previously written about my strong support for Chelsea Lee Byers, who is running for the city council. I see her victory as positively impacting West Hollywood and the larger region.
Culver City
This may be the nation’s most expensive local election on a per capita basis. One commercial developer alone has given more than $480,000 to a PAC supporting opponents of the pro-tenant, pro-housing, progressive duo of Alex Fisch and Freddie Puza. The duo’s backers have cleverly responded to the big money with flyers saying “Culver City Is Not For Sale!”
Incumbent Fisch has been particularly targeted. But his higher name recognition and successful tenure on the council make him a heavy favorite to win. Puza lost narrowly in 2020 and has run a strong grassroots campaign this year. I see the young voters who have moved to Culver City since 2020 as supporting the council’s progressive direction. Fisch and Puza are also backed by the Culver City Democratic Club. Together, these factors should put both Fisch and Puza over the top despite the massive spending against them.
This is truly a “Which Way Culver City” election. The city’s future is at stake. I see both Fisch and Puza winning.
Berkeley Council and Prop L
The Berkeley I wrote about in Generation Priced Out—a city controlled by NIMBYs who drive Prius’ while forcing the non-wealthy into long car commutes—radically changed with the election of Terry Taplin to the council in 2020. Berkeley now has among the nation’s most progressive local governments.
Voters can keep the city in a progressive space by re-electing Rashi Kesarwani and electing Mark Humbert to replace the retired Lori Droste. I see both winning.
Unfortunately, I do not see Berkeley voters passing Prop L. As badly as Berkeley needs affordable housing, improved streets and a sounder infrastructure, many homeowners do not want to pay the slight increase in taxes to pay for the bond. Prop L will get over 50% but California requires an undemocratic 2/3 vote for these bonds.
The No on L campaign reflects a growing strategy for opposing bonds: claim you support the bond’s goals but not the specific measure. This allows people to vote against affordable housing and safe streets while claiming to support both. It’s a great strategy for heavily Democratic cities like Berkeley.
It’s hard to get a 2/3 vote when there is well-funded organized opposition. So absent an unanticipated massive student turnout for Prop L, it will lose.
Oakland
“When you have three “moderates” and one “progressive” in a ranked choice voting system, the path to victory is clear.”—Beyond Chron, October 17
Soon after I wrote that Loren Taylor and Treva Reid formally announced a strategic alliance to be each other’s second place vote. That increased the chances that whoever comes out ahead between them gets the others votes.
Oakland’s 2022 mayor’s race reminds me of the 2010 contest. Moderate Don Perata was the leading vote-getter. But because the second place votes of progressive Rebecca Kaplan went to progressive Jean Quan, Quan vaulted over Perata and became mayor.
Progressive Sheng Thao will get the most first place votes. But there is not another politically strong progressive to deliver her the ranked choice votes to get her over the top.
I don’t know how the Thao camp planned to win without a strong ranked choice ally. Perhaps it thinks most Reid supporters will go with Thao over Taylor. Or that the other progressives in the field (Alyssa Victory Villanueva and Gregory Hodge) will add enough ranked choice votes to put Thao over the top
Taylor or Reid will also get most of the ranked choice votes from the likely third or fourth place finisher, Ignacio De La Fuente (in his third mayoral run). Given Taylor’s far greater campaign resources and Reid’s shorter tenure on the council, I see Taylor outpolling her.
Oakland’s ranked-choice process will elect Loren Taylor mayor.
In other contested Oakland races: Oakland is a lock to get more power on the Alameda County Board of Supervisors as voters will elect Rebecca Kaplan to the Board. And Oakland tenants will have another strong advocate on the city council when Janani Ramachandran wins in D4. Based on Oakland’s recent support for tenant protections at the ballot box, I also see Prop V prevailing.
I cannot offer a prediction on Oakland’s Prop U, which funds affordable housing, transportation and infrastructure. Opponents have not waged as strong a campaign as we’ve seen against Berkeley’s Prop L, but its still hard to get 2/3 vote in the current economic environment.
California races may take days to decide. Check our regular updates on Twitter, @beyondchron
Randy Shaw
Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco’s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s latest book is Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. He is the author of four prior books on activism, including The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century. He is also the author of The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco
