by Randy Shaw on May 28, 2024 (BeyondChron.org)
Roberto Hernandez campaign kickoff
Board Control Up for Grabs
San Francisco has tightly contested supervisor races in Districts 1, 3, 5, 9 and 11. That’s the most since district elections returned in 2000.
Here’s our latest analysis of the key races.
District 1
Supervisor Connie Chan is the most vulnerable incumbent. Here’s why.
First, redistricting brought an estimated 2500 Seacliff voters into D1. Most will back Marjan Philhour.
Second, a Chinese-American moderate candidate will not divert votes to Chan as David Lee did four years ago.
Third, crime is a much bigger issue. Philhour is seen as far more concerned with public safety.
Fourth, Philhour will get the SF Democratic Party endorsement. I discuss below the meaning of these endorsements this election cycle but it clearly helps Philhour.
Chan is campaigning hard. Self-identified progressives have always won in D1 (see McGoldrick, Mar, Fewer). Labor sees Chan as its top supervisor priority. Chan also benefits from Aaron Peskin’s campaign in D1. There are a lot of progressive voters in the Richmond and those energized for Peskin will also help Chan.
Philhour has the edge. But there’s a long way to go.
District 3
Moe Jamil, Sharon Lai and Danny Sauter all have a path to victory. They are well-informed and have key district endorsements, which explains the close race (JConr Ortega is also running but despite his great work exposing retail vacancies he is not in position to win)
Only Moe Jamil has endorsed D3 Supervisor Peskin for mayor. That could mean a lot in a district likely to go big for Peskin in November. Lai has been endorsed by Peskin (who also backed Jamil) but has not endorsed him. Sauter is not a Peskin ally.
What do D3 voters care most about? If public safety is the chief issue—which appears likely —it will matter that Jamil and Sauter backed the police staffing measure Prop E in March while Lai opposed it. Lai backed the rival Prop B, which Jamil and Sauter opposed.
Jamil was alone in backing Mayor Breed’s Prop F. The measure says substance abusers who refuse treatment lose their welfare grant.
Prop E and F passed by large margins in D3 and Prop B was defeated there. If voters connect their stance on these public safety measures to those of the candidates, this could help Jamil and Sauter and hurt Lai.
Sauter’s prior campaign gives him a huge name identification edge. This could be especially important in a large turnout presidential cycle where many voters don’t pay close attention to local politics. Sauter is also the favorite to get the SF Democratic Party endorsement; allies of Lai and Jamil will try to prevent him from getting the 2/3 vote required.
Ranked Choice Votes will prove decisive in a race that is too close to call.
D5
Supervisor Dean Preston faces two strong challengers, Bilal Mahmood and Autumn Looijen. Preston is targeted by some of the same moderate groups as Chan. His connection with DSA’s ground game coupled with the fact he remains an incumbent for most voters despite redistricting gives him a fair chance to win. The question is whether Preston’s ignoring D5’s public safety problems will alienate enough voters to elect one of his opponents.
I described in March what I still see as Mahmood/Looijen’s path to victory: a concerted rank choice voter strategy ensuring each is the other’s second choice. Mahmood’s greater name recognition from both his Assembly and DCCC races (the latter he won) gives him an edge. But Looijen’s campaign has just started so its too soon to draw conclusions.
D9
Long held by supervisors on the city’s left—-Ammiano, Campos and Ronen—the D9 November election once seemed safely in Jackie Fielder’s hands . But Roberto Hernandez’s entry into the race changed this (See “SF D9 Supervisor Race Takes Big Turn,” October 30, 2023). His May 5 kickoff turned out hundreds and included Senator Wiener and Supervisors Walton and Melgar.
Labor has backed past D9 winners. But this year unions will be split. Hernandez was the first D9 candidate to qualify for public financing and has a field campaign in place.
Is Ronen still popular in D9? I hear a lot of criticism about her public safety views. These concerns could also hurt Fielder. As with D1 and D3, public safety will likely be a bigger issue in D9 than ever before.
Trevor Chandler is the most visible D9 candidate on X (formerly Twitter). But a lot of D9 voters are not on X. And while he’s door to door canvassing to meet voters, I had not even heard of him until he mounted his campaign. His greatest impact on the race could be to ensure his second-place votes go to Hernandez. Either he or Hernandez will get the SF Democratic Party endorsement.
Hernandez is a legend in the Mission. He’s spent his entire life in D9. His win would not be an upset.
D11
As in D3, there are three top candidates who can win. EJ Jones, former aide to Supervisor Ahsha Safai, appears to have the most window signs. Chyanne Chen has the longest career in labor, youth and community organizing. Michael Lai, recently elected to the SF DCCC, has the most money and likely the largest name recognition given his DCCC campaign.
What’s not clear to me at this point is what district or citywide issues divide the candidates. Jones and Chen have a much longer history working in the district than Lai. That matters in D11. But until debates reveal how the candidates differ on key issues it is too soon to analyze this race.
D7
I know Supervisor Melgar has opposition but do not see her at risk of losing.
Will SF Democrats Endorsements Matter?
In The Activist’s Handbook I wrote how our Prop H campaign in 1992—which cut annual rent increases in half and remains the biggest progressive redistribution of wealth in the nation’s history—tied the initiative’s campaign themes to those of Clinton-Gore. I felt highly partisan presidential elections elevate the value of San Francisco Democratic Party endorsements in local races.
I don’t think the Party’s endorsement means as much as it once did. Voters overwhelmingly rejected the Party’s opposition to the School Board and District Attorney recalls. Plus the Party’s ranked choice voting endorsements can easily get voters unhappy with where their favored candidate is ranked; this can lead them to thrown out the entire slate card.
Philhour and Mahmood are virtually certain endorsees. Sauter is probable. Hernandez is the most strategic and politically pragmatic first choice for the moderate SF DCCC majority.
All will be helped by the Party’s first choice endorsement. But it’s not the game changer it once was. Considering the SF Democratic Party will either make Breed their sole first choice or give the mayor and Farrell their co-number 1 choices, supporters of other mayoral candidates could quickly throw the Party slate card in the recycling bin.
My advice to candidates is keep talking to voters. That, not mailers, social media ads, or spending hours each night on candidate forums, is the key to victory.
Randy Shaw
Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco’s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s latest book is Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. He is the author of four prior books on activism, including The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century. He is also the author of The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco
Source: https://beyondchron.org/sf-supervisor-races-heat-up/
