by Randy Shaw on September 3, 2024 (BeyondChron.org)
Which Endorsements Matter?
Have San Francisco Supervisor endorsements changed the likely outcomes? Let’s take a look.
District 1
In 2020 Connie Chan was endorsed by the San Francisco Democratic Party. Since she only defeated Marjan Philhour by 134 votes, that endorsement likely swung the result.
Now Philhour has the Democratic Party endorsement. Plus public safety is a much bigger issue, which helps Philhour. The shift of roughly 1500 more conservative Seacliff voters into D1 also boosts Philhour’s chances.
Chan benefits from D1 voters unhappy with Prop K, which opens up the Great Highway to people rather than cars. Philhour also opposes the measure but she is politically aligned with Prop K supporters Mayor Breed and Supervisor Engardio. The passion of Prop K opponents could shift some moderate to conservative votes to Chan.
Chan’s re-election is labor’s top supervisor priority. Unions will do independent expenditure battle with Grow SF, TogetherSF Action, and Neighbors for a Better San Francisco, all of whom back Philhour.
The Democratic Party endorsement is very impactful in D1. It gives Philhour the edge.
District 3
Danny Sauter won the sole Democratic Party endorsement. Coupled with his prior supervisor run, Sauter has a clear name recognition advantage over his rivals.
But how influential will the Democratic Party card be in D3? Mayor Breed is its sole mayoral endorsement in a district where Aaron Peskin is strong. Moe Jamil and Sharon Lai have been endorsed by Peskin, who has handily won all of his district races. Jamil and Lai also share the SF Tenants Union endorsement, particularly helpful in the heavily tenant district.
Jamil may have secured the most important D3 endorsement by being the top choice of the San Francisco Police Officers Association. The group did not endorse Sauter and Lai. In a district where public safety is a top issue, Jamil’s law and order support is significant.
Sauter’s backing from moderate groups noted above will boost independent expenditure campaigns favoring him. But D3 is a much lower “moderate” priority than D1, D5, and D9.
Endorsements have improved Jamil’s chances. But D3 remains too close to call.
D5
Bilal Mahmood has secured a very impressive endorsement list. It includes the SF Democratic Party, Mayor Breed, DNC star and congressional candidate Lateefah Simon, Attorney General Rob Bonta and others.
Dean Preston got Nancy Pelosi’s endorsement. That’s a big deal in the progressive district. Preston will try to use it to offset Mahmood’s Democratic Party nod.
Autumn Looijen has been shut out of major endorsements. Scotty Jacobs got the sole endorsement of Mark Farrell.
Mayor Breed has a lot of support in D5, much of which she represented as supervisor. So the Democratic Party card featuring her and endorsing Mahmood has greater impact.
Mahmood’s endorsements and field campaign give him at least an equal chance of winning in D5. But supervisor incumbents remain hard to beat.
D7
My prior stories have Supervisor Myrna Melgar winning without strong competition. Her sole endorsement by the San Francisco Democratic Party likely ensures this.
Grow SF and other “moderate” groups have endorsed small business owner Matt Boschetto. But these groups are far more committed to funding campaigns in D1, 5, 9 and 11. Boschetto does not have the money, issues, or name recognition to defeat an incumbent supervisor backed by the Democratic Party.
D9
Trevor Chandler secured the number one Democratic Party endorsement. Chandler was elected to the DCCC in March and he and his colleagues in the Democrats for Change slate now control the endorsement process. Roberto Hernandez got the second-choice endorsement. D9 was the only district that gave a candidate a second-place nod.
Considering that most of the DCCC seek to defeat Jackie Fielder, its endorsement of Chandler makes no political sense. Chandler is a moderate in the city’s most progressive district. He is the only candidate in the entire D9 field to oppose the state rent control measure (Prop 33) and also the only one to oppose the Gaza ceasefire resolution passed by the Board.
A progressive will win D9. Hernandez is an outspoken progressive. He has spent more than fifty years working to benefit D9. Hernandez secured the firefighters union endorsement that in the mayor’s race went to Mark Farrell. He has won the Alice B. Toklas Club nod and has other endorsements reflecting his broad support.
The Democratic Party could have given Hernandez a major edge by making him their top choice. As it stands, his race with Fielder remains a tossup.
D11
D11 resembles D3 in that there are three candidates who could win. Like Trevor Chandler, Michael Lai was elected to the DCCC in March on the Democrats for Change Slate. He then got the sole endorsement.
Lai may benefit more from the Democratic Party endorsement than any other supervisor candidate citywide. Accused by rivals as “parachuting into the district”—he did not move into D11 until this past February— Lai has nowhere near the district track record as rivals Ernest “E.J.” Jones and Chyanne Chen. The Democratic Party endorsement gives a critical name recognition advantage for Lai.
I see Lai’s money, independent expenditure support from moderate groups plus the Democratic Party endorsement as giving him a very slight edge. It’s really going to come down to which candidate reaches the most voters through direct contact in the next two months.
Does RCV Reduce Endorsement Power?
I recently saw a candidate advertising support from a powerful group that I assumed would endorse a rival. But I soon learned that the group had endorsed multiple candidates, so that advertised endorsement didn’t have the weight it appeared to have.
Candidates are often promoting endorsements without divulging they have been only the second or third choice. This could lead to a decline in voter trust and hence the impact of endorsements in RCV contests.
The SF Democratic Party endorsement has long been the most impactful in presidential election years. I described in The Activist’s Handbook how we tailored our 1992 Prop H campaign to cut annual rent increases by more than half to the Clinton-Gore presidential race. Our strategy was fueled by our Democratic Party endorsement and the Republican Party’s formal opposition.
But most Democrats will not be making London Breed their first choice. The Democratic Party’s decision to make a sole mayoral endorsement among multiple Democrats sharply reduces its ability to sway voters in that race and across the board.
How will supervisor races will be impacted by the Party making sole endorsements in all but D9?
We’ll find out in November.
Randy Shaw
Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco’s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s latest book is Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. He is the author of four prior books on activism, including The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century. He is also the author of The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco
