{"id":15851,"date":"2020-09-08T10:15:59","date_gmt":"2020-09-08T17:15:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/?p=15851"},"modified":"2020-09-08T10:16:02","modified_gmt":"2020-09-08T17:16:02","slug":"its-too-late-for-2020-but-electoral-college-must-go","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/2020\/09\/08\/its-too-late-for-2020-but-electoral-college-must-go\/","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s too late for 2020, but Electoral College must go"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

OPINION \/\/ JOHN DIAZ<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Photo<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

John Diaz\u00a0<\/a>Sep. 6, 2020\u00a0(SFChronicle.com)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Democratic
1of3Democratic presidential nominee former US Vice President Joe Biden speaks during a campaign event at Mill 19 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, August 31, 2020. (Photo by SAUL LOEB \/ AFP) (Photo by SAUL LOEB\/AFP via Getty Images)Photo: Saul Loeb, AFP via Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Joe
2of3Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential nominee, speaks at Mill 19 in Pittsburgh on Monday, Aug. 31, 2020. Biden used his speech to describe how President Donald Trump has destabilized every aspect of American life. (Amr Alfiky\/The New York Times)Photo: Amr Alfiky, NYT<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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3of3<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Here is a statistical analysis that should keep Democrats up at night: Joe Biden could win the popular vote by two to three percentage points and his chances of becoming the next president would be just 46%. In a narrow election \u2014 a Biden plurality over President Trump of less than one percentage point in the popular vote \u2014 he would have a 6% chance of being inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2021. Could there be a more compelling argument against the anachronistic Electoral College system and its potential to thwart the will of the people?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The possibility of a 2016 replay \u2014 in which Hillary Clinton prevailed by two percentage points in the nationwide vote, but lost the Electoral College, 227 to 304 \u2014 is very real. Nate Silver, the statistics whiz and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight, laid it out in a recent tweet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYou\u2019ll sometimes see people say stuff like \u2018Biden MUST win the popular vote by 3 points or he\u2019s toast,\u2019\u201d Silver tweeted Wednesday. \u201cNot true; at 3-4 points, the Electoral College is a tossup, not necessarily a Trump win … (on the other hand) the Electoral College is not really *safe* for Biden unless he wins by 5+.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And to think Trump complains about the prospect of a rigged election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In truth, the nation\u2019s Founding Fathers created the Electoral College in 1787 out of the regional sensitivities of the day, rather than to advance any particular candidate or ideology. One of their concerns was whether the 4 million voters in 13 states along 1,000 miles of Eastern Seaboard would have sufficient access to information about candidates from distant points; another more insidious motivation was deference to Southern states that feared domination by the North (as reflected in the compromise that counted a nonvoting slave as three-fifths of a person for congressional representation).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WILMINGTON, DELAWARE – SEPTEMBER 02: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speaks on the coronavirus pandemic during a campaign event September 2, 2020 in Wilmington, Delaware. Biden spoke on safely reopening schools during the coronavirus pandemic. (Photo by Alex Wong\/Getty Images)Photo: Alex Wong, Getty Images<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The system endured through the centuries because it so rarely produced a conflict between the popular vote and the ultimate winner \u2014 just three times between the founding and 1888. Now the candidate with the votes of more Americans has lost two of the past five elections (Clinton in 2016, preceded by Al Gore to George W. Bush in 2000).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Would yet another anomaly finally force Americans to demand change?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It should, but it won\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The straightforward approach would be an amendment to the Constitution, which would require a two-thirds vote in each house of Congress, followed by ratification by 38 states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Republicans would be unlikely to cede their Electoral College advantage. Small states would be unwilling to give up their outsize clout in a system that provides a baseline of three electors (reflecting one House member, two senators). As a result, a Wyoming vote is worth 3\u00bd times a California vote in a presidential election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not that the major party campaigns will spend any time or money in solidly Republican Wyoming or solidly Democratic California.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Losing by winning?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

New analysis by FiveThirtyEight shows the distinct advantage President Trump enjoys in the Electoral College. Joe Biden\u2019s chances of winning the electoral college if he wins the popular vote by these margins:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Biden\u2019s margin is 0-1 points<\/p>\n\n\n\n

22%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Biden\u2019s margin is 1-2 points<\/p>\n\n\n\n

46%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Biden\u2019s margin is 2-3 points<\/p>\n\n\n\n

74%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Biden\u2019s margin is 3-4 points<\/p>\n\n\n\n

89%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Biden\u2019s margin is 4-5 points<\/p>\n\n\n\n

98%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Biden\u2019s margin is 5-6 points<\/p>\n\n\n\n

99%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Biden\u2019s margin is 6-7 points<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The even greater distortion of democracy is the way the Electoral College reduces the selection of a leader for nearly 330 million people to a handful of potentially competitive states. The battleground has shifted slightly from 2016 \u2014 with Arizona, Georgia and Texas coming into play, joining with perennials such as Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin \u2014 but most of the rest of the nation will be taken for granted by the campaigns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A shortcut to establishment of the \u201cone person, one vote\u201d principle in presidential elections would be the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact <\/a>being pushed by some reformers. Here\u2019s how it would work: States would essentially pledge to award their electors to whichever candidate who received the most votes nationwide, regardless of the results of their individual states. The compact would take effect once it assembled enough states to reach the magic 270 electoral votes to decide the winner. So far, 15 states (including California) and the District of Columbia \u2014 196 electoral votes \u2014 have signed on to the deal. It won\u2019t be a factor in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My issue with the compact is that it merely replaces one convoluted system with another. Also, it almost certainly would produce a legal challenge. The Supreme Court recently affirmed the right of states to require electors to vote in accordance with their states\u2019 outcome, thus preventing \u201cfaithless electors\u201d from becoming free agents after an election. But that left open the question of whether a state could order its electors to vote against<\/em> state voters\u2019 wishes to comply with the compact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The last thing Americans should want is another presidential election decided by the Supreme Court, as we saw in 2000, when the justices ruled 5-to-4 to halt the Florida recount. It\u2019s far better to do the hard work for a constitutional amendment that settles it once and for all: The candidate with the most votes wins. Full stop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

John Diaz is The San Francisco Chronicle\u2019s editorial page editor. Email: jdiaz@sfchronicle.com<\/a> Twitter: @JohnDiazChron<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

John Diaz<\/a><\/h5>\n\n\n\n

Follow John on:https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/SFChronicle\/<\/a>johndiazchron<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before joining the opinion pages, he directed the newspaper\u2019s East Bay news coverage. He started at The Chronicle in 1990 as an assistant city editor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

John began his journalism career as a reporter for the Red Bluff Daily News. Two years later, he was promoted to the Washington, D.C., bureau of the newspaper\u2019s parent company, Donrey Media Group. After that, he worked as a general assignment reporter for the Associated Press in Philadelphia and as a statehouse reporter and assistant city editor for the Denver Post.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He graduated from Humboldt State University in 1977 with a degree in journalism. He received a Distinguished Alumni Award from HSU in 2009 and was the university\u2019s commencement speaker in 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u00a92020 Hearst<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

OPINION \/\/ JOHN DIAZ John Diaz\u00a0Sep. 6, 2020\u00a0(SFChronicle.com) Here is a statistical analysis that should keep Democrats up at night: Joe Biden could win the popular vote by two to three percentage points and his chances of becoming the next president would be just 46%. In a narrow election \u2014 a Biden… Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15851"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15851"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15851\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15852,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15851\/revisions\/15852"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15851"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15851"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15851"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}