FEBRUARY 12, 2021 (prospect.org)<\/p>\n\n\n\n BILL CLARK\/CQ ROLL CALL VIA AP IMAGES<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) speaks with reporters outside of Speaker Pelosi\u2019s office, June 27, 2019.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Few Democrats, and even fewer Republicans, expect the 2022 election cycle to be kind to House Democrats. Nursing a minuscule margin after 2020\u2019s face-plant, and up against the twin challenges of redistricting and the typical midterm backlash against a new president\u2019s party, House Dems will need a near-miracle effort to hold onto the chamber. Early comments<\/a> from new DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney on their strategy\u2014the Republican Party \u201ccan do QAnon, or they can do college-educated voters. They cannot do both,\u201d he wrongly decreed\u2014does not portend divine inspiration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The calculus for progressives, however, will be different. Long before Democrats do battle with the GOP in November, progressives will mount challenges to moderate and right-wing Democratic incumbents. For the past two cycles, they\u2019ve had increasing success, taking down long-tenured incumbents and growing the ranks of progressives in the Democratic caucus. Their presence is part of the reason progressive priorities like the $15-an-hour minimum wage and broader stimulus checks have been a part of the first Biden rescue package.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Though we\u2019re still in the early days of 2021, those primary challenges are not far off. And while most candidates are waiting on redistricting, which will throw a wrench in some of these districts, there\u2019s already a sense of where these challenges might come from.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The first and most likely target will be Henry Cuellar<\/strong>, from Texas\u2019s 28th Congressional District. Cuellar, widely seen as perhaps the most conservative Democrat in the House, narrowly escaped a primary challenge from 27-year-old immigration lawyer Jessica Cisneros in 2020. Cuellar routinely voted against the Democratic agenda; early in the Trump administration, he was voting with the disgraced Republican president a startling 75 percent<\/a> of the time and rocking an A rating from the now-bankrupt NRA. This, despite representing a district with a D+15<\/a> partisan lean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since surviving that primary challenge, Cuellar returned to the chamber with a vengeance<\/a>, orchestrating an ambush on fellow Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) to keep her out of a highly sought-after seat on the House Energy and Commerce Committee. In opposing her appointment, he pointed to AOC\u2019s support for his primary challenger. Cisneros hasn\u2019t announced she\u2019s running again, but, if she did, she\u2019d be following in the footsteps of progressives who took two cycles to dispatch incumbents, including first-year reps Marie Newman and Cori Bush. Texas Republicans control redistricting and may seek to pick off South Texas Democrats after improving with Latinos, but that may lead to gerrymandering more Democrats into Cuellar\u2019s district to bolster nearby seats. We\u2019ll find out soon what the district looks like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Next on the list would be Massachusetts\u2019s Fourth District representative Jake Auchincloss<\/strong>. Joe Kennedy III vacated this seat in 2020 to make an ill-fated attempt at knocking off Sen. Ed Markey. Auchincloss won a crowded primary, but he did so only because progressives split the vote between multiple candidates, including Jesse Mermell and Ihssane Leckey. This allowed Auchincloss, a former registered Republican who voted in Republican primaries as late as 2015, to squeak out a narrow victory over Mermell, carrying just 22.4 percent of the vote. In a heavily Democratic district\u2014Auchincloss won in the general by 22 points\u2014there will be desire from progressives and liberals alike to correct the mistake and get a former Republican out of that seat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Georgia\u2019s 13th District, currently represented by David Scott<\/strong>, will be another likely target. Coming off victories in the Senate special elections, grassroots organizing groups have proven their muscle, and could look to get someone more aligned in the 13th, a majority-Black district in the south Atlanta suburbs. Scott, an extremely Wall Street\u2013friendly representative, has been a notorious and unapologetic co-sponsor<\/a> of Republican bills to deregulate derivatives markets. As the new chairman<\/a> of the House Agriculture Committee, he is now in charge of all derivatives regulation, a role with heightened importance in the wake of the Robinhood craze. Scott was famously the only Democrat to co-sponsor all seven Republican bills that aimed to water down the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform package.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Kurt Schrader<\/strong>, the six-term representative of Oregon\u2019s 5th District, which stretches from the state\u2019s Central Coast to the south Portland suburbs, could be on the list as well. Schrader hasn\u2019t been particularly high-profile, but he inexplicably pledged<\/a> to vote against Trump\u2019s second impeachment in the wake of the Capitol insurrection, before eventually flip-flopping. He referred to the vote as a \u201clynching\u201d in a House caucus call, in a exceptionally tone-deaf display. Schrader was also one of just two Democrats to vote against a bill that would have increased<\/a> stimulus checks in last December\u2019s COVID relief bill to $2,000, in defiance of a signature pledge of the Biden administration. The only other Democrat to do that is no longer in Congress, thanks to a progressive primary challenger. Schrader, it\u2019s clear, has emerged as one of the party\u2019s most right-wing members. And he\u2019s done so by championing two exceptionally unpopular positions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Currently, the top three ranking Democrats are all in their eighties. This is a party of the youth represented by the old.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n Elsewhere, it would not be a surprise to see progressives take another run at Bobby Rush<\/strong>\u2019s seat in Illinois\u2019s First District, a heavily Democratic district south of Chicago. Rush has held the seat since 1993, and has been a target of progressives in the past, given his unwillingness to pursue progressive legislative priorities in a D+28 district. Rush, now 74 years old, endorsed Michael Bloomberg in the Democratic presidential primary. A guy named Barack Obama was unable to unseat Rush, but this is a new era. Alcee Hastings<\/strong> of Florida\u2019s 20th District could be a target as well. The Florida Democratic Party is in a unique state of disarray, but FL-20, located in Fort Lauderdale and other majority-Black regions of South Florida, is a D+31 district, and Hastings, one of Congress\u2019s leading supporters of the predatory payday-lending sector, is now 84 years old.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That last detail is a crucial one: Hastings, like many House Democrats, is extremely old. In fact, as of 2019 the average age<\/a> of House Democrats was an astounding 71 years. Currently, the top three ranking Democrats are all in their eighties. This is a party of the youth represented by the old.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That\u2019s especially important, given the high probability that Democrats lose the House in 2022. If that does happen, one can assume that the chamber will remain in Republican control until at least 2026. So for the party\u2019s septuagenarians and octogenarians, that means running in 2022 is akin to signing oneself up for being in the minority for at least four, if not more, years. It\u2019s likely that few Democratic members are going to want to spend the last years of their careers, and possibly their lives, sitting idly in a minority chamber unable to do anything, with the hope of returning to power near the end of the decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There is reason to expect, then, that a number of elderly Democrats will step down and retire voluntarily, or could easily be pushed into retirement by the mere announcement of a primary challenge. And for progressives, winning newly vacated seats in safe blue districts will be as important as winning heads-up primary contests. Take the 32nd District in California, which leans D+17, for example. It\u2019s repped by Grace Napolitano<\/strong>, who\u2019s 84, and will be 86 by the start of the next Congress. There\u2019s a huge opportunity for progressives to swell their ranks dramatically in this election cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n While some Democrats might be disinclined to retire, looking to the example set by the ancient House leadership, the prospect of a lengthy primary battle can be a powerful motivator. Last year, the announcement of Mondaire Jones\u2019s candidacy in New York\u2019s 17th Congressional District was enough to push incumbent Nita Lowey, then 82 years old, into retirement. Jones won the open primary in the district and cruised to victory in November. \u201cThe Mondaire Jones race might be the blueprint going forward,\u201d said Sean McElwee, co-founder of Data for Progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Of course, the exact blueprint will be determined by redistricting, a process which will overwhelmingly be done by and to the benefit of Republicans. But while Democrats have their work cut out for them in what promises to be a steep uphill climb, progressives have an opportunity, both in primaries and in open seats, to have their best election cycle yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Alexander Sammon is a staff writer at The American Prospect.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" It\u2019s never too early to scout the next set of primary challenges. BY ALEXANDER SAMMON FEBRUARY 12, 2021 (prospect.org) BILL CLARK\/CQ ROLL CALL VIA AP IMAGES Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) speaks with reporters outside of Speaker Pelosi\u2019s office, June 27, 2019. Few Democrats, and even fewer Republicans, expect the 2022 election… Continue reading ![\"Sammon-Progressive](\"https:\/\/prospect.org\/downloads\/15772\/download\/Sammon-Progressive%20targets%20021221.jpg?cb=3a1ba978ff3959e37d87de7d8fcf94eb&w=640\")
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<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nALEXANDER SAMMON<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n