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By: Marc DAOU<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n It has been more than ten years since Abdel Fattah al-Sisi<\/a> overthrew Egypt<\/a>\u2019s first democratically elected president, the Islamist Mohamed Morsi<\/a>, and he is still ruling the country with an iron fist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sisi\u2019s opponents and supporters alike are convinced that he will win this year\u2019s presidential election, set to take place from December 10-12. His victories in 2014 and 2018 saw him win over 96 percent of the vote, a track record that leaves little room for doubt on what is likely to happen this time around.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Another victory would see the former army chief hold on to power until 2030. Running for a third term was made possible when Sisi himself amended the Egyptian constitution in 2019, extending the presidential term from four years to six.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Born in Cairo in November 1954, Sisi was one of fourteen children raised in a conservative household. Son of a shopkeeper, he decided to pursue a military career at an early age, climbing the social ladder in a country ruled by the army. Spending much of his life out of the public eye, Sisi achieved prominence by becoming chief of staff of the Egyptian army and minister of defence in 2012.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The surprise promotion was granted by President Morsi, the first democratically elected Egyptian head of state, just over a year after former president Hosni Mubarak<\/a> was ousted in the Arab Spring<\/a>. At the time, Sisi was portrayed by the media as a pious Muslim compatible with the Muslim Brotherhood<\/a> movement from which Morsi hailed. The reputation was largely built on Sisi\u2019s family ties with Abbas Sisi, a disciple of Hassan al-Banna, founder of the Islamist group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But Sisi\u2019s rapid rise to power within the army would not have been possible if his close ties to the Brotherhood, under scrutiny by the Mubarak regime, gave rise to the slightest doubt. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Partly trained in the UK and the US, Sisi became a commander of the northern Egyptian military zone before moving up the ranks to take over as director of military intelligence and quickly established himself as the country\u2019s strongman. In the aftermath of the mass uprisings that saw millions of Egyptians demand the immediate resignation<\/a> of Morsi in early July 2013, Sisi issued an ultimatum<\/a> to the former president and his cabinet. Without explicitly calling for Morsi to step down, he called on Egypt\u2019s politicians to \u201cmeet the demands of the people\u201d within 48 hours. <\/p>\n\n\n\n If Morsi refused, the armed forces (who were already in charge of the post-Mubarak transition) would be forced to \u201cannounce a roadmap for the future<\/a>\u201d and put an end to the revolution that had been boiling since 2011<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Islamist president was deposed, arrested and imprisoned shortly after. But the bloody repression of protesters, many of whom supported the Muslim Brotherhood, would not be forgotten. Human Rights Watch described<\/a> the widespread killing of demonstrators at the time a probable \u201ccrime against humanity\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Morsi died in 2019<\/a> after collapsing in a Cairo court where he was attending a session in his trial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Regarded by his admirers as humble and skilful \u2013 and by his detractors as distrustful and suspicious \u2013 Sisi left his military uniform behind for the suit and tie of de facto presidency. <\/p>\n\n\n\n For Egyptians opposed to the political Islam embodied by the Muslim Brotherhood, Sisi had saved the country from its grip.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since Sisi\u2019s sweeping victory<\/a> in the May 2014 presidential election, opponents as well as local and international NGOs have accused the leader of wanting to return to an autocratic regime. They say that since he came into power, \u201crepression has been reaching unprecedented levels<\/a>\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In a report<\/a> published on October 2, six international and local human rights organisations called out the \u201cwidespread and systematic use of torture\u201d by Egyptian authorities that amount to what they consider \u201ca crime against humanity under customary international law\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Running parallel to his repressive political stranglehold, Sisi also launched a series of gargantuan projects aimed at extolling the greatness of Egypt and flattering the nationalist sentiments of his compatriots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Among these ambitious undertakings was the modernisation of the country\u2019s roads and electricity infrastructure, as well as the construction of a new administrative capital<\/a> located in the desert about 50km from Cairo. Ironically nicknamed \u201cSisi City\u201d, construction was due to be completed in 2020 but is still in its first phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In August 2015, the president unveiled a plan for a giant expansion of the Suez Canal<\/a> \u2013 another flagship project intended to symbolise a \u201cnew Egypt\u201d. Costing some \u20ac7.9 billion, the project was completed on time in less than a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The new Suez Canal brought in netted record revenues of around \u20ac8.6 billion between 2022 and 2023, leading Sisi to promise prosperity and security for all Egyptians. <\/p>\n\n\n\n But in a country plagued by an unprecedented economic crisis and at risk of defaulting on its foreign debt, that is not an easy promise to keep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Egypt relies heavily<\/a> on revenues from Ukrainian and Russian tourists, so when the war<\/a> broke out in February 2022, its economy was hit hard. The number of yearly tourists from both countries plummeted from 35 to 40 percent, according to local figures. Egypt is also the world\u2019s leading importer of wheat. When prices soared as a result of the war, the country\u2019s economy bore the brunt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the ten years Sisi has been in power, Egypt and its 105 million inhabitants \u2013 largely reliant on a steady drip of Saudi Arabian aid \u2013 have been plagued by poverty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite his shortcomings, Sisi is still seen as a guarantor of stability and security in the region by many international leaders. Turning a blind eye to his human rights abuses, the West sees him as a key ally in what they consider an otherwise chaotic Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is even more the case since Hamas’s bloody attacks on Israel on October 7<\/a> and Israel’s ensuing invasion of the Gaza Strip. During the week-long ceasefire in Gaza from November 24-30, hostages held by Hamas were directed south of the enclave to Egypt. The Rafah crossing on the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt is also where humanitarian aid is transported into the Palestinian territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Read more The Gaza-Egypt Rafah crossing explained: \u2018It is not a normal border\u2019<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Back in 2014, the pragmatic Sisi kept a low profile when the West protested his power grab.<\/em> The US and Europe didn\u2019t congratulate him after his election victory, though they did stress the need to get back to respecting human rights as soon as possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In response, Sisi sided with Russian President Vladimir Putin<\/a>. In November 2014, a month after the US froze military and financial aid to Egypt, the Kremlin announced it would deliver air defence systems to the country and said talks to deliver military aircraft were under way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A shrewd strategist, Sisi knows that the West cannot turn its back on the most populated Arab country for too long. Egypt is both a strategic intermediary in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict<\/a> and a key ally in the fight against terrorism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The fight against Islamic militants has moved the cursor for how world leaders see Sisi, especially in the case of the US. After years of strained ties under the Obama administration, former US President Donald Trump congratulated the Egyptian leader in 2016<\/a>. “I just want to let everybody know in case there was any doubt that we are very much behind President Sisi. He\u2019s done a fantastic job in a very difficult situation. We are very much behind Egypt and the people of Egypt,” Trump said during Sisi\u2019s first official visit to the US in April 2017.<\/p>\n\n\n\n When Sisi visited France in October of 2017, French President Emmanuel Macron<\/a> claimed he did not want to \u201clecture<\/a>\u201d his Egyptian counterpart on human rights. <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Between 2010 and 2019, Egypt imported \u20ac7.7 billion in French weapons, according the parliament<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Like his military predecessors, Sisi is obsessed with acquiring modern weaponry and securing his borders. This is increasingly the case as his neighbours \u2013 Libya<\/a>, Sudan<\/a>, Israel<\/a> and the Gaza Strip<\/a> \u2013 are all affected by ongoing conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For years, Egypt has been battling a jihadist insurgency<\/a> in its Sinai<\/a> region, a peninsula located in the northeast of the country. According to the opposition, this ongoing threat to Egypt\u2019s internal security is being instrumentalised by authorities to restrict civil liberties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In 2018, Sisi launched a vast \u201canti-terrorist\u201d operation in the areas where Islamist radicals are rife \u2013 some of whom have pledged allegiance to the Islamic State group<\/a> \u2013 but so far in vain. The Sinai is still a security headache for Sisi, who stands behind yet another empty promise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This article is a translated version of the original in French<\/a>. <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is the front-runner in Egypt\u2019s upcoming presidential election which will be held from December 10-12. Despite being marked by a widespread crackdown on dissent and a weak economic and security record, the former army chief\u2019s ten-year rule may be extended until 2030. It’s an outcome that many… Continue reading Rising in the ranks \u2013 all the way to the presidency<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Repression left, right and centre<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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A key ally for the West<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\nSecuring the Sinai, another empty promise<\/h2>\n\n\n\n