{"id":37466,"date":"2024-11-04T13:17:47","date_gmt":"2024-11-04T21:17:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/?p=37466"},"modified":"2024-11-04T13:17:47","modified_gmt":"2024-11-04T21:17:47","slug":"will-us-middle-east-policy-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/2024\/11\/04\/will-us-middle-east-policy-change\/","title":{"rendered":"Will US Middle East Policy Change?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Will US Middle East Policy Change?<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dr. James J. Zogby \u00a9\u00a0President, Arab American Institute\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

November 4, 2024 (aaiusa.org)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Middle East conflict and this year\u2019s US presidential election are impacting one another in important ways. We\u2019re seeing an internal debate unfolding within the Democratic Party, coupled with a hardening of views on the Republican side. As a result, there\u2019s little hope that, whoever wins, there will be any significant change in US policy toward the Middle East region.\u202f <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Israel\u2019s war in Gaza has caused a rift within the Democratic coalition. During the last decade, several mass movements have arisen in the US in response to women\u2019s rights, \u201cblack lives matter,\u201d immigration, and gun control. All of these have erupted as partisan issues pitting Democrats against Republicans. The mass movement in support of Palestinian rights and a ceasefire in Gaza is the latest of these mobilizations and is made up of the same progressive constituent groups. The key difference between the pro-Palestinian movement and the others is that instead being a strictly partisan effort, it has been an intra-party affair pitting key elements of the Democratic coalition against the party\u2019s leadership. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Polling shows that for the first time more Democrats sympathize with Palestinians over Israelis, want an immediate ceasefire, and support suspension of military aid to Israel. They are also disinclined to see the US militarily involved in conflicts in the Middle East and the world. These attitudes are especially pronounced among young voters and non-white voters\u2014key components of the Democratic coalition. This tension within the Democratic Party is real and may cost the party votes in some states. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While changing attitudes within the Democratic Party resulting from the war have caused some to become alienated from the party\u2019s historic ties with Israel, this shift is also beginning to have an impact on policy. Record numbers of Democratic members of Congress have signed on to bills and letters urging a ceasefire or calling for limits on US arms shipments to Israel. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Republicans, on the other hand, remain dominated by the Christian right and remnants of the neoconservative movement both of which share a Manichaeistic world view that is uncritically supportive of Israel\u2019s role in the region and the world. Despite the costs in US lives, treasure, and prestige resulting from the disastrous wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, both of these ideological currents continue to see the US as the driving force for good in the world. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regardless of the outcome of the election, the rift will continue to grow\u2014both within the Democratic Party and between the two parties. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don\u2019t expect that a Harris administration would make any immediate or dramatic shift in its approach. The still-dominant Democratic foreign policy and political consultant establishments are cautious and out of touch with the changing dynamics within the electorate and the diminished capacity of the US in the world. But I do expect that eventually they will be forced to recognize and make some accommodation to the political pressures building from below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump, on the other hand, is Trump. I expect his administration would be as unconventional and as unpredictable as it was the last time around. That said, despite his desire to avoid entanglement in foreign wars, he would not deviate from, nor would he challenge, his supporters\u2019 beliefs in US primacy and the righteousness of Israel\u2019s behaviors. But the extent of the complex tensions roiling the Middle East region would require him to make some accommodation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019m not sure that either he or, for that matter, the Democratic foreign policy establishment, are up to the task. They will need to think bigger than playing \u201cwhack-a-mole\u201d with Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Libya, and Yemen. They will need to recognize that the US can\u2019t make change without addressing historic grievances. And they will need to address new realities that are transforming the region. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s clear that while there is change afoot in both US politics and in the dynamics unfolding across the Middle East, new thinking and creative leadership is needed. This new thinking appears to be developing more in the Middle East than in the US, which is still stuck in the old post-Cold War mindset that sees the US as the \u201cindispensable nation,\u201d the \u201cshining city on the hill,\u201d or the \u201cbeacon of freedom.\u201d  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While I feel comfortable that there will continue to be a heated debate on the Democratic side over the US\u2019s role in the region and the world, I\u2019m not confident that the GOP, such as it is, will be capable of engaging in the kind of self-criticism needed to make change possible. A consequence of this will be partisan tension and gridlock making the US, in the near term, unable to play a meaningful role in contributing to peace and stability in the Middle East. This has resulted in many key US allies moving independently to both secure themselves and ease regional tensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

***<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Arab American Institute. The Arab American Institute is a non-profit, nonpartisan national leadership organization that does not endorse candidates.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: To discuss this column with me, please<\/em> register here<\/a> for my next \u2018Coffee And A Column\u2019 event Wednesday via Zoom.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This column is exclusive for @TheNational and James Zogby. It cannot be republished without permission.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Will US Middle East Policy Change?  Dr. James J. Zogby \u00a9\u00a0President, Arab American Institute\u00a0 November 4, 2024 (aaiusa.org) The Middle East conflict and this year\u2019s US presidential election are impacting one another in important ways. We\u2019re seeing an internal debate unfolding within the Democratic Party, coupled with a hardening of… Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37466"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37466"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37466\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37467,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37466\/revisions\/37467"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37466"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37466"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37466"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}