{"id":46200,"date":"2026-01-18T20:46:53","date_gmt":"2026-01-19T04:46:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/?p=46200"},"modified":"2026-01-18T20:47:55","modified_gmt":"2026-01-19T04:47:55","slug":"are-the-billionaires-bluffing-question-looms-over-explosive-tax-debate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/2026\/01\/18\/are-the-billionaires-bluffing-question-looms-over-explosive-tax-debate\/","title":{"rendered":"Are the billionaires bluffing? Question looms over explosive tax debate"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>By\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/author\/joe-garofoli\/\">Joe Garofoli<\/a>,Political Columnist Jan 18, 2026 (SFChronicle.com)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gift Article<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"960\" height=\"640\" src=\"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-39.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-46201\" srcset=\"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-39.png 960w, http:\/\/occupysf.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-39-300x200.png 300w, http:\/\/occupysf.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-39-150x100.png 150w, http:\/\/occupysf.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-39-768x512.png 768w, http:\/\/occupysf.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-39-225x150.png 225w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Saikat Chakrabarti, a candidate for Congress, is one of the few California politicians publicly challenging the assertion that a proposed tax would push billionaires to leave the state.Scott Strazzante\/Associated Press<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/dialog\/feed?app_id=137086563877087&amp;link=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sfchronicle.com%2Fpolitics%2Fjoegarofoli%2Farticle%2Fbillionaire-tax-california-state-21297701.php%3Futm_campaign%3DCMS%2520Sharing%2520Tools%2520(Premium)%26utm_source%3Dfacebook.com%26utm_medium%3Dreferral&amp;name=Are%20the%20billionaires%20bluffing%3F%20Question%20looms%20over%20explosive%20tax%20debate&amp;description=The%20explosive%20debate%20over%20a%20proposed%20billionaire%20tax%20largely%20hinges%20on%20one%20question%3A%20would%20they%20really%20leave%20California%2C%20as%20many%20have%20threatened%3F&amp;picture=https%3A%2F%2Fs.hdnux.com%2Fphotos%2F01%2F55%2F63%2F72%2F28786304%2F3%2FrawImage.jpg&amp;redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sfchronicle.com%2Fpolitics%2Fjoegarofoli%2Farticle%2Fbillionaire-tax-california-state-21297701.php%3Futm_campaign%3DCMS%2520Sharing%2520Tools%2520(Premium)%26utm_source%3DUTMSOURCE%26utm_medium%3DUTMMEDIUM\"><\/a><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sfchronicle.com%2Fpolitics%2Fjoegarofoli%2Farticle%2Fbillionaire-tax-california-state-21297701.php%3Futm_campaign%3DCMS%2520Sharing%2520Tools%2520(Premium)%26utm_source%3Dt.co%26utm_medium%3Dreferral&amp;text=Are%20the%20billionaires%20bluffing%3F%20Question%20looms%20over%20explosive%20tax%20debate&amp;via=sfchronicle\"><\/a><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/intent\/compose?text=Are%20the%20billionaires%20bluffing%3F%20Question%20looms%20over%20explosive%20tax%20debate%20https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sfchronicle.com%2Fpolitics%2Fjoegarofoli%2Farticle%2Fbillionaire-tax-california-state-21297701.php&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sfchronicle.com%2Fpolitics%2Fjoegarofoli%2Farticle%2Fbillionaire-tax-california-state-21297701.php%3Futm_campaign%3DCMS%2520Sharing%2520Tools%2520(Premium)%26utm_source%3Dbsky.app%26utm_medium%3Dreferral\"><\/a><a target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"mailto:?subject=Your%20friend%20has%20shared%20a%20San%20Francisco%20Chronicle%20link%20with%20you%3A&amp;body=Are%20the%20billionaires%20bluffing%3F%20Question%20looms%20over%20explosive%20tax%20debate%0A%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.sfchronicle.com%2Fpolitics%2Fjoegarofoli%2Farticle%2Fbillionaire-tax-california-state-21297701.php%3Futm_campaign%3DCMS%2520Sharing%2520Tools%2520(Premium)%26utm_source%3Dshare-by-email%26utm_medium%3Demail%0A%0AThe%20explosive%20debate%20over%20a%20proposed%20billionaire%20tax%20largely%20hinges%20on%20one%20question%3A%20would%20they%20really%20leave%20California%2C%20as%20many%20have%20threatened%3F%0A%0AThis%20message%20was%20sent%20via%20San%20Francisco%20Chronicle\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As Democrats struggle to figure out how to regain power, many are seizing on&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/politics\/joegarofoli\/article\/democrats-2026-message-21219690.php\" class=\"\">populist<\/a>&nbsp;positions&nbsp;\u2014 except when it comes to a proposed tax on California billionaires, which would affect about 200 people in a state of nearly 40 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The measure \u2014 which has not yet qualified for the ballot \u2014 would impose a one-time, 5% tax on the total value of the net worth of Californians whose wealth totals more than $1 billion. It is intended to backfill federal budget cuts that the California Medical Association&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/politics\/article\/billionaire-tax-ballot-california-21284717.php\" class=\"\">predicts<\/a>&nbsp;will strip 2.5 million Medi-Cal enrollees and up to 660,000 Covered California participants of health care coverage and eliminate 217,000 California health care jobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Read more:<\/strong>&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/politics\/article\/billionaire-tax-ballot-california-21284717.php\" class=\"\">A California billionaires tax hasn\u2019t yet qualified for the ballot. But it\u2019s already unleashing chaos<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Also:<\/strong>&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/california\/article\/california-billionaire-tax-21266557.php\" class=\"\">Who would a California wealth tax impact? Here\u2019s a list of the state\u2019s billionaires<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Related:<\/strong>\u00a0<a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/california\/article\/billionaire-tax-tech-21266647.php\">Talk of California\u2019s \u2018billionaire tax\u2019 sparks social media class war, threats of tech exodus<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>For the past four decades, it has been hard to persuade the poorest 99% of Americans to raise taxes on the other 1%. Much of that has to do with a federal campaign finance system that allows the wealthiest Americans&nbsp;\u2014 and corporations and labor unions&nbsp;\u2014 to give unlimited amounts to candidates. As a result, politicians have been too gutless to tax their biggest donors.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In California, many Democrats have couched their opposition by arguing the tax would push wealthy entrepreneurs to leave the state, starving the budget of their businesses\u2019 revenues and thus negating the impact of the tax. Experts, however, say that sort of mass billionaire exodus is unlikely.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some billionaires, such as Google co-founder Larry Page, did&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/california\/article\/larry-page-larry-ellison-california-wealth-tax-21281843.php\" class=\"\">take steps to leave<\/a>&nbsp;the state before Dec. 31. But some politicians and economists say the billionaires are largely bluffing. Why would they leave? They\u2019ve been making a mint here. A UC Berkeley&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/eml.berkeley.edu\/~saez\/galle-gamage-saez-shanskeCAbillionairetaxDec25.pdf\" class=\"\">report<\/a>&nbsp;on the tax found that \u201cstudies of how the super wealthy respond to tax changes find that very few super wealthy residents actually uproot their lives and move due to tax.\u201d&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>UC Berkeley economics professor Emmanuel Saez, an adviser on the ballot measure who helped design a wealth tax\u00a0<a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/politics\/article\/Any-millionaires-want-to-pay-more-taxes-Some-are-14811639.php\">proposal<\/a>\u00a0for Sen. Elizabeth Warren\u2019s 2020 presidential campaign, told me: \u201cBillionaires are a group that has done extraordinarily well in California in recent years.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThey have over $2 trillion in wealth as of Jan. 1, 2026,\u201d said Saez. \u201cCalifornia billionaire wealth grew 30% in 2025, 40% in 2024, 40% in 2023, hence more than doubling in the last three years.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Saez noted a crucial provision of the tax that makes the argument over a Great Billionaire Flight of 2026 somewhat moot: The proposal would impose the tax based on residence status on Jan. 1, 2026, meaning it\u2019s already too late to move to avoid it. It\u2019s still possible, though, that some would move out of spite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Saikat Chakrabarti, a House candidate in San Francisco who is worth an estimated&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/disclosures-clerk.house.gov\/public_disc\/financial-pdfs\/2025\/10063516.pdf\" class=\"\">$167 million<\/a>&nbsp;from his time as a founding engineer at Stripe, said that the \u201cmega-rich won\u2019t even feel a one-time 5% wealth tax. They just got a massive handout from Trump.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chakrabarti, who is running to succeed Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi in San Francisco, is one of few Democrats who\u2019s publicly challenging the billionaires\u2019 threats to leave.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cBillionaires are always threatening to leave for Florida or Texas&nbsp;\u2014 and then they come back,\u201d Chakrabarti told the Chronicle. \u201cThe billionaires rely on us, not the other way around. I don\u2019t believe the same billionaires who routinely lose tens of millions of dollars betting on failed startups so they can find one unicorn will suddenly stop investing here because of a tax.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>House members who represent Silicon Valley, home to many tech industry billionaires, are split. Rep.&nbsp;Ro Khanna, D-Santa Clara, supports it. Reps. Sam&nbsp;Liccardo&nbsp;and&nbsp;Zoe Lofgren, both D-San Jose,&nbsp;oppose it.&nbsp;Rep. Kevin Mullin, D-San Mateo, is \u201cstill studying it.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Liccardo said that the \u201cproposed measure isn\u2019t sensible\u201d because \u201ctaxing unrealized gains irreversibly undermines the innovation economy, repelling startup founders and the venture capital that sustains them. Any decision by California leaders to tax unrealized gains ensures that California\u2019s largest taxpayers become Texas\u2019 largest taxpayers.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has many allies in the tech world, aggressively opposes the plan. \u201cOn a state level, this is not something that will allow us to be competitive,\u201d he said during an appearance in San Francisco on Friday. He pointed to a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/lao.ca.gov\/BallotAnalysis\/Initiative\/2025-024\" class=\"\">report<\/a>&nbsp;by the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst\u2019s Office&nbsp;predicting \u201cit is likely that some billionaires decide to leave California. The income taxes they currently pay to the state would go away with their departure. \u2026 This would mean less money for the state\u2019s general budget that supports education, health care, prisons, and other services.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIt may have its populist appeal as a headline. I deeply understand that, and I get the politics of it intimately,\u201d said Newsom, a likely candidate for president in 2028. \u201cBut read the initiative, understand what it does at a state level.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, Chakrabarti\u2019s opponents in the race for Congress are also split: San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan backs the tax, while state Sen. Scott Wiener is undecided.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Wiener, who has supported progressive wealth taxes and estate taxes in the past, said he is waiting to see what is officially on the ballot. There will probably be ballot measures asking voters to support taxes for public transit and bonds for affordable housing. There also may be a measure asking voters to make permanent an existing 2012 voter-approved tax rate for high-income Californians, which is currently set to expire in 2031.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u200b\u200b\u201cThere are various revenue measures that are being discussed for next year&nbsp;\u2014 including at the local level, where we\u2019re going to have two different tax measures to save public transportation,\u201d Wiener said.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Similarly, other Democrats&nbsp;\u2014 nodding to the LAO analysis&nbsp;\u2014 say they want to tax billionaires but worry the tax may \u201cbackfire,\u201d as Lofgren put it.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lofgren told the Chronicle: \u201cI\u2019m not at all sympathetic to the billionaires whining about possible taxes, but it\u2019s not at all clear to me that the proposed ballot measure would work and not backfire. There\u2019s other reforms that can ensure everybody pays their fair share, and I\u2019m evaluating those options.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>She declined to describe those options.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>State Sen. Josh Becker, D-Palo Alto, opposes the tax, noting that California has a progressive tax system that is reliant on the state\u2019s highest earners.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWhy would we want to drive those people out of our state by taxing money they MIGHT make?\u201d Becker said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Like Becker, Newsom fears that the tax will inspire wealthy residents to leave the state, robbing not only the state\u2019s progressive income tax structure of their taxes but possibly their businesses, too.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Saez, co-author of the book \u201cThe Triumph of Injustice: How the Rich Dodge Taxes and How to Make Them Pay,\u201d said taxing billionaires is not&nbsp; taxing their businesses. \u201cFor example,\u201d he said, \u201cMark Zuckerberg owns about 13.7% of Meta. If he sells 5% of his stake to pay the tax, nothing of substance changes for the business operations of Meta.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Newsom\u2019s opposition to the tax is similar to the two top Republicans running to replace him&nbsp;\u2014 former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cCalifornia\u2019s problem will not be fixed by taxing people merely because they\u2019re successful,\u201d Bianco said. \u201cBy taxing billionaires, billionaires will leave, the jobs they create will leave, and we will further destroy the middle class.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hilton made the same case: \u201cWhen job creators leave, the jobs go with them. So does the tax base that funds schools, infrastructure and essential services.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jan 18, 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/author\/joe-garofoli\/\">Joe Garofoli<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>SENIOR POLITICAL WRITER<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Joe Garofoli is the San Francisco Chronicle\u2019s senior political writer, covering national and state politics. He has worked at The Chronicle since 2000 and in Bay Area journalism since 1992, when he left the Milwaukee Journal. He is the host of \u201cIt\u2019s All Political,\u201d The Chronicle\u2019s political podcast. Catch it here:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/projects\/podcasts\/?show=itsallpolitical&amp;id=821d7ea33c5d41e2be6e1948e8546e18\">bit.ly\/2LSAUjA<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He has won numerous awards and covered everything from fashion to the Jeffrey Dahmer serial killings to two Olympic Games to his own vasectomy \u2014 which he discussed on NPR\u2019s \u201cTalk of the Nation\u201d after being told he couldn\u2019t say the word \u201cballs\u201d on the air. He regularly appears on Bay Area radio and TV talking politics and is available to entertain at bar mitzvahs and First Communions. He is a graduate of Northwestern University and a proud native of Pittsburgh. Go Steelers!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By\u00a0Joe Garofoli,Political Columnist Jan 18, 2026 (SFChronicle.com) Gift Article Saikat Chakrabarti, a candidate for Congress, is one of the few California politicians publicly challenging the assertion that a proposed tax would push billionaires to leave the state.Scott Strazzante\/Associated Press As Democrats struggle to figure out how to regain power, many&#8230; <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/2026\/01\/18\/are-the-billionaires-bluffing-question-looms-over-explosive-tax-debate\/\"> Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr; <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46200"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46200"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46200\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":46204,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46200\/revisions\/46204"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46200"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46200"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46200"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}