{"id":46969,"date":"2026-03-02T16:36:55","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T00:36:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/?p=46969"},"modified":"2026-03-02T16:36:56","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T00:36:56","slug":"fool-me-twice-the-case-for-war-with-iran-is-even-thinner-than-it-was-for-iraq","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/2026\/03\/02\/fool-me-twice-the-case-for-war-with-iran-is-even-thinner-than-it-was-for-iraq\/","title":{"rendered":"Fool Me Twice: The Case for War With Iran Is Even Thinner Than It Was for Iraq"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The case for invading Iraq was based on lies. The Trump administration\u2019s case for war with Iran hardly exists at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

S\u00e9amus Malekafzali<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

February 28 2026 (TheIntercept.com)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"WASHINGTON,
Donald Trump delivers the State of the Union address at the Capitol on Feb. 24, 2026, in Washington, D.C. Photo: Kenny Holston-Pool\/Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Days before embarking<\/strong> America on another foreign war, Donald Trump spent more than 90 minutes speaking endlessly about America being back during his State of the Union, leveling racist accusations of Somali American fraud, and expounding on the beauty of America\u2019s raid to arrest Nicol\u00e1s Maduro in Caracas. It was a master class in testing the attention span<\/a> of Americans hoping to hear anything at all about the danger that has loomed in the background now for months: the threat of armed conflict with Iran. Those who made it to the finale \u2014 and who have conscious memories of the George W. Bush years \u2014 would have noticed a similar tenor to the State of the Union in 2003, the one which paved the way for the justification of the invasion of Iraq less than two months later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In that speech, Bush outlined the alleged threat of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, the myriad ways in which Iraq had supposedly deceived international investigators, and the staggering human rights abuses committed by Saddam Hussein against his own countrymen. Secretary of State Colin Powell, the president boasted, would soon\u00a0outline to the United Nations the threat<\/a>\u00a0the United States, and indeed the world, was up against in Baghdad.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Related<\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Bush\u2019s Iraq War Lies Created a Blueprint for Donald Trump<\/a><\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

However, while many of the claims made by Bush were spurious at best and outright deceptions at worst, the claims Trump made in his speech were even less believable \u2014 and much more scattershot. Trump claimed<\/a> that Iran would \u201csoon\u201d have intercontinental ballistic missiles that would \u201creach the United States of America,\u201d that more than 32,000 Iranians had been killed in recent protests (NGOs estimated the number to be much lower, and an Iranian human rights group put the death toll at 6,488<\/a>), and that the Iranian military had somehow killed \u201cmillions,\u201d somewhere in history, with roadside bombs it pioneered. Perhaps most plainly false of all, Trump contended<\/a> he just wanted the Iranians to say \u201cthose secret words, \u2018We will never have a nuclear weapon,\u2019\u201d despite Iranian officials constantly<\/a> making such insistences<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before the U.S. and Israeli military launched strikes Saturday<\/a>, the specter of an Iranian war has become something of a national miasma, the build-up having gone on now so long that its cause is imperceptible, yet perhaps everything at once. The build-up to the Iraq War was similarly argued under many causes, with Saddam\u2019s authoritarian governance very much part of the discussion, but the aftermath of 9\/11 and the supposed threat Iraq posed to the homeland was chief among them \u2014 the fire that led Americans to line up front and center<\/a> behind the cause. While Iran has been on the wish list for American neoconservatives and foreign policy wonks for decades<\/a>, this escalation has happened over a much shorter time frame, much more suddenly, and much more obvious in how the government is desperately in search of a compelling cause.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Stretching back into December, the cards were being laid out. Benjamin Netanyahu had made plans to meet with Trump at the White House to discuss what he saw as the threat posed by Iran\u2019s conventional ballistic missile program, seeking a green light to initiate another devastating war, with hoped-for American support<\/a>. Israel\u2019s reasoning was not based on Iranian human rights abuses or about threats to the American homeland, but threats to Israel and \u201cU.S. interests,\u201d according to NBC News<\/a>. Netanyahu had wanted<\/a> a post-war situation similar to Lebanon\u2019s<\/a>, where Israel has been able to continue striking that country daily with Hezbollah unable to respond. Iran still retained deterrent military capacity to prevent this from happening. A greater threat, however nonexistent, needed to be communicated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rollout of news stories to back up Netanyahu\u2019s claim was well-telegraphed, with reports suddenly emerging in the Israeli press that Iran was planning to use an imminent military exercise as a\u00a0diversion<\/a>\u00a0to strike Israel. At the same time that Netanyahu was meeting with Trump, reports again suddenly emerged that Iran was\u00a0seeking<\/a>\u00a0to develop and purchase \u201cbiological and chemical warheads\u201d for its missiles, eerily echoing the\u00a0false claims Powell made before the U.N. about Iraq<\/a>.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Related<\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Israel Is Cynically Capitalizing on the Iranian Protests for Its Own Ends<\/a><\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

As attention shifted to the burgeoning protests in Iran<\/a>, suddenly the United States and Israel had a much stronger casus belli: supporting anti-government demonstrators to overthrow the government. Only a few days after the protests began, Trump promised<\/a> the \u201cUnited States of America will come to their rescue\u201d if the Iranian government killed protesters, \u201cwhich is their custom.\u201d As the death toll mounted, far exceeding the toll of previous protest movements, the threats of intervention continued<\/a> but never actually materialized. Western officials brought in Starlink satellites<\/a> to keep protesters connected (SpaceX\u2019s CEO Elon Musk has joked<\/a> that he supports Secretary of State Marco Rubio becoming the shah of Iran), and unnamed foreign intelligence agencies allegedly<\/a> brought in firearms used to kill over 200 members of government security forces. Yet Trump continued<\/a> to promise that he was planning something, saying \u201chelp is on the way,\u201d and demanding protesters \u201ctake over institutions\u201d even as protests dissipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

The specter of an Iranian war has become something of a national miasma, the build-up having gone on now so long that its cause is imperceptible, yet everything at once.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Trump wanted war, as did Netanyahu, but there was no conception of when it should happen, for what cause it should exactly be waged, and what would even be done. There was want, but there was no will, and there was no way. Everything had to be cobbled together in the background, sometimes to seemingly even get Trump on board with the plan he himself put into motion.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Related<\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Bloody U.S. Legacy in Iraq<\/a><\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Reports of considering strikes<\/a> on \u201csymbolic military targets\u201d were followed by Trump commending<\/a> Iran for supposedly halting hundreds of planned executions. Declarations of an \u201carmada\u201d being sent to Iran\u2019s shores were accompanied by demands to stop killing protesters, even though the protests had ceased days earlier. More reports poured in of plans for special ops raids<\/a> and strikes to assassinate<\/a> Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (and perhaps also his son<\/a>), with reports of imminent attacks being just as suddenly thrown out<\/a> as more and more military assets moved in<\/a> to allow for greater and greater operations, a build-up not seen since Bush\u2019s full-scale invasion of Iraq 23 years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With attacks underway, the plan now seems<\/a> to revolve around a complete decapitation of the Islamic Republic\u2019s leadership and the overthrow of the entire system via the air \u2014 followed by a populist uprising Trump hopes will topple the regime. \u201cWhen we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take,\u201d Trump said in a video<\/a> address. \u201cThis will be probably your only chance for generations.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The campaign of airstrikes comes only hours after the United States insisted it wanted to have a civil diplomatic conversation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Two
Two Iranian women walk past an anti-U.S. mural on the wall of the former U.S. Embassy in downtown Tehran on Feb. 26, 2026, the final day of Iran\u2013U.S. talks in Geneva. Photo: Morteza Nikoubazl\/NurPhoto via Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As with the diplomatic talks<\/a> that preceded<\/a> Iran\u2019s war with Israel in June, these negotiations are set up to fail, and the scope of demands is now far wider and even more contradictory. Reports emanating from the discussions seem to oscillate between a willingness to resurrect<\/a> some version of the Obama-era<\/a> nuclear deal<\/a> and a demand for what amounts to complete capitulation \u2014 with Rubio demanding<\/a> restrictions on ballistic missile range and ending of support to Hamas and Hezbollah; Israel demanding<\/a> the full dismantling of said ballistic missile arsenal; and Trump plainly stating<\/a> \u201cno nuclear weapons, no missiles, no this, no that, all the different things you\u2019d want.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is also no consensus about what the threat from Iran is even supposed to be in the American imagination. Trump\u2019s accusation of near-imminent ICBM production is a recent invention, clearly meant to steer things in a familiar, concrete direction. But the Trump administration cannot seem to agree on whether or not Iran is even developing its nuclear program at all \u2014 with Rubio telling reporters<\/a> there is no enrichment happening, even as special envoy Steve Witkoff told<\/a> Fox News that Iran was merely \u201ca week away from having industrial-grade bomb-making material.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bush administration officials infamously claimed they did not want \u201cthe smoking gun\u201d to be \u201ca mushroom cloud,\u201d but officials had always kept that estimate in months \u2014 the way the threat of Iran making a nuclear bomb has often been phrased as \u201cmonths away\u201d for the better part of two decades. Now, the threat is somehow both days away and barely off the ground.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Related<\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Would-Be Iran Monarch Reza Pahlavi Declares a Civil War in Iran<\/a><\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

While opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi, the son of the late shah, as well as Mojahedin-e-Khalq leader Maryam Rajavi<\/a>, have jostled for the attention of Trump\u2019s circle, there seems to be little attention paid to their efforts, with the president dismissing Pahlavi<\/a> as \u201cvery nice, but I don\u2019t know how he\u2019d play within his own country.\u201d Those who remember Ahmed Chalabi<\/a> and the motley crew of Iraqi opposition cronies may rest easy, as there seems to be little care at all about what would even come next. Sen. Lindsey Graham, one of the brewing war\u2019s strongest supporters, scorned the idea of even considering the day after in an interview<\/a> with an Emirati newspaper, saying: \u201cYou gotta quit saying we. It\u2019s not we, it\u2019s them. It\u2019s not my job to construct a new Iran. It\u2019s my job to give them the opportunity to construct a new Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019re independent of corporate interests \u2014 and powered by members. Join us.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Become a member<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The feeling at home, despite oversaturation in the media, could not be more different than it was before Iraq. Just before the bombs fell, 64 percent of the country supported<\/a> the invasion; more than two decades later, only 21 percent of Americans currently favor<\/a> an attack on Iran, with only 40 percent of Republicans supporting it. The Trump administration is apparently so concerned about the optics of the scenario they have walked themselves into that, according to reporting from Politico, officials were hoping Israel would attack Iran first, leading Iran to attack American troops<\/a>, thereby rallying the country behind the war effort after the fact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

There is no consensus about what the threat from Iran is even supposed to be in the American imagination.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

One would think that such a drive toward an unpopular war-in-the-making would galvanize Democrats, but so far, anti-war voices have been limited. Lawmakers like Rep. Ro Khanna<\/a> have found themselves drowned out by demands from Democratic leaders that the Trump administration simply provide a clear explanation, apparently seeking to avoid the embarrassment of pundits and politicians after the disaster of Iraq, who blamed their initial support on buying the Bush administration\u2019s flimsy case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is an unshakeable belief that consistency of logic is the primary issue with a war to cement Israel\u2019s military hegemony, one that may cost thousands of lives. While some prominent progressives like Sen. Bernie Sanders attempted to hamper Trump\u2019s funding to execute the war without congressional approval in June, Sanders has not made any public comments<\/a> on the march to war in over a month, and other progressives like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who have also supported anti-war initiatives, were seen applauding<\/a> as Trump railed against Iran this week at the State of the Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The world is now watching a devastating war rage with no real reasoning, already no end in sight, and its chief belligerent making promises it cannot keep to a population it will surely massacre in the process. Unpopularity<\/a> has not stopped the Trump administration before, whether it be in Venezuela or in Minneapolis, but the United States finds itself in a uniquely baffling position, where its opposition party, much like how it goes in Israel, instead begs for a better execution of the government\u2019s evil plan.Share<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Donate<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Contact the author:<\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

S\u00e9amus Malekafzali<\/a>@Seamus_Malek<\/a>on X<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The case for invading Iraq was based on lies. The Trump administration\u2019s case for war with Iran hardly exists at all. S\u00e9amus Malekafzali February 28 2026 (TheIntercept.com) Days before embarking America on another foreign war, Donald Trump spent more than 90 minutes speaking endlessly about America being back during his State… Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46969"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46969"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46969\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":46970,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46969\/revisions\/46970"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46969"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46969"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46969"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}