{"id":47769,"date":"2026-04-17T12:09:30","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T19:09:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/?p=47769"},"modified":"2026-04-17T12:09:31","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T19:09:31","slug":"the-odds-of-a-democratic-lockout-in-the-california-governors-race-have-shrunk-dramatically","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/2026\/04\/17\/the-odds-of-a-democratic-lockout-in-the-california-governors-race-have-shrunk-dramatically\/","title":{"rendered":"The odds of a Democratic lockout in the California governor\u2019s race have shrunk dramatically"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>By\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/author\/joe-garofoli\/\">Joe Garofoli<\/a>, Political Columnist April 16, 2026 (SFChronicle.com)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gift Article<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-49-1024x683.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-47770\" srcset=\"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-49-1024x683.png 1024w, http:\/\/occupysf.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-49-300x200.png 300w, http:\/\/occupysf.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-49-150x100.png 150w, http:\/\/occupysf.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-49-768x512.png 768w, http:\/\/occupysf.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-49-225x150.png 225w, http:\/\/occupysf.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-49.png 1080w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>From left: California governor candidates former Rep. Katie Porter, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former Health Secretary Xavier\u00a0Bacerra, former state Controller Betty\u00a0Yee and California Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond participate in a forum in Los Angeles last September.Carlin Stiehl\/Tribune News Service<\/em><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/dialog\/feed?app_id=137086563877087&amp;link=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sfchronicle.com%2Fpolitics%2Fjoegarofoli%2Farticle%2Fgovernor-california-democrat-republican-22208819.php%3Futm_campaign%3DCMS%2520Sharing%2520Tools%2520(Premium)%26utm_source%3Dfacebook.com%26utm_medium%3Dreferral&amp;name=The%20odds%20of%20a%20Democratic%20lockout%20in%20the%20California%20governor%E2%80%99s%20race%20have%20shrunk%20dramatically&amp;description=The%20latest%20assessments%20of%20the%20California%20governor%E2%80%99s%20race%20are%20a%20huge%20silver%20lining%20for%20Democrats%20after%20the%20party%E2%80%99s%20leading%20candidate%2C%20former%20Rep.%20Eric%20Swalwell%2C%20exited%20the%20race%20in%20scandal.&amp;picture=https%3A%2F%2Fs.hdnux.com%2Fphotos%2F01%2F65%2F77%2F15%2F30929787%2F5%2FrawImage.jpg&amp;redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sfchronicle.com%2Fpolitics%2Fjoegarofoli%2Farticle%2Fgovernor-california-democrat-republican-22208819.php%3Futm_campaign%3DCMS%2520Sharing%2520Tools%2520(Premium)%26utm_source%3DUTMSOURCE%26utm_medium%3DUTMMEDIUM\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sfchronicle.com%2Fpolitics%2Fjoegarofoli%2Farticle%2Fgovernor-california-democrat-republican-22208819.php%3Futm_campaign%3DCMS%2520Sharing%2520Tools%2520(Premium)%26utm_source%3Dt.co%26utm_medium%3Dreferral&amp;text=The%20odds%20of%20a%20Democratic%20lockout%20in%20the%20California%20governor%E2%80%99s%20race%20have%20shrunk%20dramatically&amp;via=sfchronicle\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/bsky.app\/intent\/compose?text=The%20odds%20of%20a%20Democratic%20lockout%20in%20the%20California%20governor%E2%80%99s%20race%20have%20shrunk%20dramatically%20https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sfchronicle.com%2Fpolitics%2Fjoegarofoli%2Farticle%2Fgovernor-california-democrat-republican-22208819.php&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sfchronicle.com%2Fpolitics%2Fjoegarofoli%2Farticle%2Fgovernor-california-democrat-republican-22208819.php%3Futm_campaign%3DCMS%2520Sharing%2520Tools%2520(Premium)%26utm_source%3Dbsky.app%26utm_medium%3Dreferral\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"mailto:?subject=Your%20friend%20has%20shared%20a%20San%20Francisco%20Chronicle%20link%20with%20you%3A&amp;body=The%20odds%20of%20a%20Democratic%20lockout%20in%20the%20California%20governor%E2%80%99s%20race%20have%20shrunk%20dramatically%0A%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.sfchronicle.com%2Fpolitics%2Fjoegarofoli%2Farticle%2Fgovernor-california-democrat-republican-22208819.php%3Futm_campaign%3DCMS%2520Sharing%2520Tools%2520(Premium)%26utm_source%3Dshare-by-email%26utm_medium%3Demail%0A%0AThe%20latest%20assessments%20of%20the%20California%20governor%E2%80%99s%20race%20are%20a%20huge%20silver%20lining%20for%20Democrats%20after%20the%20party%E2%80%99s%20leading%20candidate%2C%20former%20Rep.%20Eric%20Swalwell%2C%20exited%20the%20race%20in%20scandal.%0A%0AThis%20message%20was%20sent%20via%20San%20Francisco%20Chronicle\" target=\"_blank\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The possibility that Democrats will be&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/politics\/joegarofoli\/article\/california-governor-democrats-swalwell-22200549.php\" class=\"\">locked out<\/a>&nbsp;of the race for California governor has dramatically shrunk, political analysts believe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s a huge silver lining for the party after its leading candidate, former Rep. Eric Swalwell, dropped out of the race after&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/politics\/article\/eric-swalwell-allegations-22198271.php\" class=\"\">a Chronicle report<\/a>&nbsp;in which a former staffer alleged he had sexually assaulted her.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Latest:<\/strong>&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/politics\/article\/eric-swalwell-woman-california-22203999.php\" class=\"\">Eric Swalwell\u2019s rapid fall leaves allies reeling as more women come forward<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Read more:<\/strong>&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/politics\/joegarofoli\/article\/swalwell-governor-supporters-22204701.php\" class=\"\">Here\u2019s who Eric Swalwell\u2019s supporters in the governor\u2019s race are likely to back now<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Also:<\/strong>&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/politics\/joegarofoli\/article\/trump-california-governor-22201498.php\" class=\"\">California Republicans are torn on following Trump\u2019s lead in governor\u2019s race<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Related:<\/strong>&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/politics\/joegarofoli\/article\/california-governor-democrats-swalwell-22200549.php\" class=\"\">The race for California governor was already a mess for Democrats. Now what?<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Sacramento data expert Paul Mitchell, who created an online&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/twins-production-9381.up.railway.app\/\" class=\"\">model<\/a>&nbsp;that simulates thousands of election scenarios, said that \u201cthe program really believes that the odds of two Republicans splitting the vote is more remote, almost nonexistent.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Not only that, Mitchell, said, but the model forecasts Swalwell\u2019s\u00a0<a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/politics\/joegarofoli\/article\/swalwell-governor-supporters-22204701.php\">supporters migrating<\/a>\u00a0to Tom Steyer and former Rep. Katie Porter, meaning support for those two candidates could be \u201cgrowing to an extent that they could actually be the top two candidates, creating a greater chance of a Top Two general election with NO REPUBLICAN, which would be quite a twist!\u201d he wrote in an email.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Other analysts weren\u2019t ready to go that far, but agreed that it is now unlikely&nbsp;\u2014 but not impossible&nbsp;\u2014 that Democrats will be watching the November election from the sidelines.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI\u2019ve been saying all along that I think that two Republicans is possible, but not probable,\u201d said Mark\u00a0Baldassare, survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California. \u201cI continue to say it\u2019s not probable that there would be two Republicans\u201d on the ballot in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The organization released a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ppic.org\/publication\/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-education-april-2026\/\" class=\"\">poll<\/a>&nbsp;Tuesday that showed Swalwell leading the race with 18% support, followed by Fox News commentator Steve Hilton with 17%, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco with 14%, Steyer with 14% and Porter with 10%. The other top Democratic candidates scored at 5% or lower. The survey was conducted before&nbsp;Swalwell exited the race and resigned from Congress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since PPIC\u2019s February survey, Swalwell surged higher than any other candidate (11% to 18%), while support for Porter decreased the most (21% to 10%).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Baldassare noted that Swalwell\u2019s name will remain on the ballot, and it is probable that he will receive votes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2014, former San Francisco Democratic state Sen. Leland Yee received 380,361&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/ballotpedia.org\/California_Secretary_of_State_election,_2014\" class=\"\">votes<\/a>&nbsp;out of 4 million cast just two months after being indicted in a federal corruption investigation. He finished in third place in the primary, ahead of several candidates who had been actively campaigning. Baldassare noted that 69% of Swalwell\u2019s supporters described themselves as liberal in the new PPIC poll, meaning \u201cthat they\u2019re going to be looking for a liberal, and that\u2019s a sizable number of people who will make it possible for at least one Democrat to get into the top two.\u201d&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are roughly twice as many registered Democrats as Republicans in California.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some of the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/politics\/joegarofoli\/article\/swalwell-governor-supporters-22204701.php\" class=\"\">migration of Swalwell supporters<\/a>&nbsp;has begun. Steyer received the endorsement Monday from the board of the 310,000-member California Teachers Association, which had previously backed Swalwell.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>CTA President David Goldberg praised Steyer for walking the picket line with teachers and for promising to reform Proposition 13, even though that will be a huge uphill battle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cHe\u2019s been a champion for holding corporations accountable and closing the corporate tax loopholes that leave hardworking Californians behind and our essential public services without vital revenue to benefit the wealthy few,\u201d Goldberg said.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Analysts also said President Donald Trump\u2019s endorsement this month of Hilton \u201cprobably consolidates at least a lot of the\u00a0MAGA support behind Hilton,\u201d decreasing the chance of two Republicans advancing, said Ruth Bernstein, the senior principal with EMC Research, which was Swalwell\u2019s longtime pollster.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bernstein added that it\u2019s possible that with some of the lower-polling Democrats trying to breathe life into their campaigns in the aftermath of Swalwell\u2019s exit, \u201cwe could, instead of seeing support consolidating around one or two Democratic candidates, potentially support starts to spread between more candidates, which again, could lead to two Republicans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cSo I do think the likelihood (of a Democratic lockout) has decreased, but it\u2019s not impossible,\u201d Bernstein said.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>April 16, 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/author\/joe-garofoli\/\">Joe Garofoli<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Senior Political Writer<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Joe Garofoli is the San Francisco Chronicle\u2019s senior political writer, covering national and state politics. He has worked at The Chronicle since 2000 and in Bay Area journalism since 1992, when he left the Milwaukee Journal. He is the host of \u201cIt\u2019s All Political,\u201d The Chronicle\u2019s political podcast. Catch it here:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfchronicle.com\/projects\/podcasts\/?show=itsallpolitical&amp;id=821d7ea33c5d41e2be6e1948e8546e18\">bit.ly\/2LSAUjA<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He has won numerous awards and covered everything from fashion to the Jeffrey Dahmer serial killings to two Olympic Games to his own vasectomy \u2014 which he discussed on NPR\u2019s \u201cTalk of the Nation\u201d after being told he couldn\u2019t say the word \u201cballs\u201d on the air. He regularly appears on Bay Area radio and TV talking politics and is available to entertain at bar mitzvahs and First Communions. He is a graduate of Northwestern University and a proud native of Pittsburgh. Go Steelers!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By\u00a0Joe Garofoli, Political Columnist April 16, 2026 (SFChronicle.com) Gift Article From left: California governor candidates former Rep. Katie Porter, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former Health Secretary Xavier\u00a0Bacerra, former state Controller Betty\u00a0Yee and California Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond participate in a forum in Los Angeles last September.Carlin&#8230; <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/2026\/04\/17\/the-odds-of-a-democratic-lockout-in-the-california-governors-race-have-shrunk-dramatically\/\"> Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr; <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47769"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47769"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47769\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":47771,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47769\/revisions\/47771"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47769"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47769"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47769"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}