{"id":9968,"date":"2018-10-17T18:53:37","date_gmt":"2018-10-18T01:53:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/?p=9968"},"modified":"2018-10-17T18:53:37","modified_gmt":"2018-10-18T01:53:37","slug":"vap-vs-vep-voter-turnout-calculation-the-dark-side-of-statistical-figures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/2018\/10\/17\/vap-vs-vep-voter-turnout-calculation-the-dark-side-of-statistical-figures\/","title":{"rendered":"VAP vs VEP Voter Turnout Calculation &#038; the Dark Side of Statistical Figures"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"entry-meta\"><span class=\"posted-on\"><time class=\"entry-date published\" datetime=\"2018-10-15T02:54:58+00:00\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.johnlaurits.com\/2018\/vap-vep-voter-turnout-statistics\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">OCTOBER 15, 2018<\/a>\u00a0<\/time><\/span><span class=\"byline\"><span class=\"author vcard\"><a class=\"url fn n\" href=\"https:\/\/www.johnlaurits.com\/2018\/vap-vep-voter-turnout-statistics\/#\">JOHN LAURITS<\/a>\u00a0(JohnLaurits.com)<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/voter-turnout-768x405.jpg?ssl=1\" data-featherlight=\"image\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"title-image aligncenter wp-image-10544\" title=\"How Voter Turnout Is Calculated, Difference Between Voting-Age Population \/ VAP and Voting-Eligible Population \/ VEP\" src=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/voter-turnout.jpg?resize=723%2C381&amp;ssl=1\" sizes=\"(max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/voter-turnout.jpg?w=950&amp;ssl=1 950w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/voter-turnout.jpg?resize=300%2C158&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/voter-turnout.jpg?resize=768%2C405&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/voter-turnout.jpg?resize=172%2C90&amp;ssl=1 172w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/voter-turnout.jpg?resize=427%2C225&amp;ssl=1 427w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/voter-turnout.jpg?resize=119%2C63&amp;ssl=1 119w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/voter-turnout.jpg?resize=666%2C351&amp;ssl=1 666w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/voter-turnout.jpg?resize=360%2C190&amp;ssl=1 360w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/voter-turnout.jpg?resize=333%2C176&amp;ssl=1 333w, https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/voter-turnout.jpg?resize=273%2C144&amp;ssl=1 273w\" alt=\"How Voter Turnout Is Calculated, Difference Between Voting-Age Population \/ VAP and Voting-Eligible Population \/ VEP\" width=\"723\" height=\"381\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Democracy, by definition, is a popular concept and, in the theater of politics, a popular concept is an important one. States usually take care to maintain democratic appearances with their populations and the international perception of democracy is often what determines whether the press refers to a nation\u2019s leaders as a\u00a0<em>government<\/em>, a\u00a0<em>regime<\/em>, or a\u00a0<em>dictatorship<\/em>. Since it is impossible to ask a whole population whether it feels enfranchised or not, the integrity of democracy must be inferred with statistics by looking at voter participation, exit polls, public-surveys, and other data.\u00a0Of these, one of the more important is\u00a0<em>voter-turnout<\/em>\u00a0and \u2014 with mass media being such a minefield of dishonest statistical figures and the 2018 midterms being just around the corner \u2014 it can be handy to know how turnout is calculated\u2026<\/p>\n<h2><em>How to Calculate Voter-Turnout &amp; Fight the Dark Side of Statistics<\/em><\/h2>\n<p>Without voter-turnout, it would be hard to judge whether an election is meaningfully democratic because turnout is what tells us how much of a population actually participated in the collective decision-making process otherwise known as\u00a0<em>democracy<\/em>. If just 10% of a country\u2019s people votes to elect their leaders, for instance, only a cynic would call it democracy \u2014 but if 90% participates in the elections, it would be hard to characterize it as anything else. Turnout isn\u2019t everything, of course \u2014\u00a0 in a situation where a state only allowed one candidate to run, for example, or where systematic violence was used to bully people into voting a particular way, such elections could not be democratic no matter how many \u2018voted.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>But so long as no disqualifying anti-democratic shenanigans occur, turnout is pretty useful for evaluating the quality of elections and there are two basic ways to measure it \u2014 one uses the\u00a0<em>VAP<\/em>\u00a0or\u00a0<em>voting-age population<\/em>\u00a0and the other uses the\u00a0<em>VEP<\/em>\u00a0or\u00a0<em>voting-eligible population<\/em>.<\/p>\n<h2><strong><em>Voting-Age vs Voting-Eligible Population: a Critical Comparison<\/em><br \/>\n<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Calculating voter-turnout using a nation\u2019s VAP is pretty straightforward \u2014 the number who voted is simply divided by the number who are old enough to vote. It is a simple fraction, like so:<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\">\\mathtt{\\large\\frac{\\text{Number of Votes}}{\\text{VAP}} = \\text{ \\% Turnout}}<\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord sizing reset-size6 size7\"><span class=\"mfrac\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"sizing reset-size7 size4 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\"><span class=\"mord text mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">VAP<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"\"><span class=\"sizing reset-size7 size4 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\"><span class=\"mord text mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">Number<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">of<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">Votes<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mrel sizing reset-size6 size7\">=<\/span><span class=\"mord text sizing reset-size6 size7\">\u00a0<span class=\"mord mathtt\">%<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"mord mathtt\">Turnout<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>When turnout is calculated using the voting-<em>eligible<\/em>\u00a0population or VEP, the number of people who voted is divided by the result of subtracting the people designated by the state\u2019s authorities as non-eligible to vote from the total of the voting-age population.\u200b Some algebra, along with some research into the state\u2019s electoral laws, is needed to figure out the VEP-based turnout:<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\">\\mathtt{\\large\\frac{\\text{Number of Votes}}{\\text{VAP} &#8211; \\text{ Non-Eligible Population }} = \\text{ \\% Turnout}}<\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord sizing reset-size6 size7\"><span class=\"mfrac\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"sizing reset-size7 size4 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\"><span class=\"mord text mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">VAP<\/span><\/span><span class=\"mbin mtight\">\u2212<\/span><span class=\"mord text mtight\">\u00a0<span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">Non-Eligible<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">Population<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"\"><span class=\"sizing reset-size7 size4 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\"><span class=\"mord text mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">Number<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">of<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">Votes<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mrel sizing reset-size6 size7\">=<\/span><span class=\"mord text sizing reset-size6 size7\">\u00a0<span class=\"mord mathtt\">%<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"mord mathtt\">Turnout<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>Without getting too entangled in the gazillions of non-essential details, these are the two major approaches to turnout \u2014 only one of them is useful, however.<\/p>\n<h3><strong><em>How Measuring Voter-Turnout w\/ VEP Is Misleading<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>To illustrate why VEP should never be used to calculate turnout, consider the fact that Saudi Arabia\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/web.archive.org\/web\/20180815182904\/https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2015\/12\/12\/world\/saudia-arabia-women-vote\/index.html\">kept women from voting until just 3 years ago<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0in 2015. Turnout figures calculated with VAP would clearly show that half the people were disenfranchised by the Saudi monarchs \u2014 a VEP-based turnout figure, on the other hand, would suggest Saudi Arabia was a functional democracy. And in the technical terminology used in the field of statistics, this type of thing is known as\u00a0<em>horseshit<\/em>. Using VEP to measure turnout basically lets a nation\u2019s political-authorities customize the equation that is meant to determine whether its elections are \u201cfree and fair\u201d \u2014 a flaw\u00a0<em>so spectacularly fatal<\/em>\u00a0that it defeats the whole purpose of turnout before the measuring even begins.<\/p>\n<h3><strong><em>Case in Point:\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><strong><em>VEP vs VAP Turnout, 1989 South African Elections<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>As a more concrete example, consider the turnout rate for the 1989 elections held in apartheid-era South Africa. At the time,\u00a0<em>only whites were eligible to vote<\/em>and, with this nation being located in Africa and everything, this policy tended to exclude quite a lot of people, by which the author means almost everyone. If the South African voting-eligible population is used, then it appears that there was an impressive turnout for 1989 because a\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/archive.ipu.org\/parline-e\/reports\/arc\/2291_89.htm\"><strong>total of 2.2 million<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0or about 87% of 2.5 million\u00a0<em>suspiciously-pale<\/em>\u00a0voting-eligible South Africans turned out to vote. See:<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\">\\mathtt{\\large\\frac{2,157,593}{2,478,930} = 0.87037 \\text{ or } \\approx 87\\%}<\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord sizing reset-size6 size7\"><span class=\"mfrac\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"sizing reset-size7 size4 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">2<\/span><span class=\"mpunct mtight\">,<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">4<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">7<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">8<\/span><span class=\"mpunct mtight\">,<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">9<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">3<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"\"><span class=\"sizing reset-size7 size4 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">2<\/span><span class=\"mpunct mtight\">,<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">1<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">5<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">7<\/span><span class=\"mpunct mtight\">,<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">5<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">9<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">3<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mrel sizing reset-size6 size7\">=<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt sizing reset-size6 size7\">0<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt sizing reset-size6 size7\">.<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt sizing reset-size6 size7\">8<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt sizing reset-size6 size7\">7<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt sizing reset-size6 size7\">0<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt sizing reset-size6 size7\">3<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt sizing reset-size6 size7\">7<\/span><span class=\"mord text sizing reset-size6 size7\">\u00a0<span class=\"mord mathtt\">or<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"mrel sizing reset-size6 size7\">\u2248<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt sizing reset-size6 size7\">8<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt sizing reset-size6 size7\">7<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt sizing reset-size6 size7\">%<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>In reality, of course, the 1989 elections were a reprehensibly illegitimate farce \u2014 the actual turnout rate, calculated honestly by using South Africa\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.idea.int\/data-tools\/country-view\/310\/40\"><strong>voting-age population<\/strong><\/a>\u00b9 as the denominator, was really just 12.7% \u2014<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\">\\mathtt{\\large\\frac{2,157,593}{17,047,560} = 0.1265 \\text{ or } \\approx 12.7\\%}<\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord sizing reset-size6 size7\"><span class=\"mfrac\"><span class=\"vlist-t vlist-t2\"><span class=\"vlist-r\"><span class=\"vlist\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"sizing reset-size7 size4 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">1<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">7<\/span><span class=\"mpunct mtight\">,<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">0<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">4<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">7<\/span><span class=\"mpunct mtight\">,<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">5<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">6<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"\"><span class=\"sizing reset-size7 size4 mtight\"><span class=\"mord mtight\"><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">2<\/span><span class=\"mpunct mtight\">,<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">1<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">5<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">7<\/span><span class=\"mpunct mtight\">,<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">5<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">9<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt mtight\">3<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"vlist-s\">\u200b<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span class=\"mrel sizing reset-size6 size7\">=<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt sizing reset-size6 size7\">0<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt sizing reset-size6 size7\">.<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt sizing reset-size6 size7\">1<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt sizing reset-size6 size7\">2<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt sizing reset-size6 size7\">6<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt sizing reset-size6 size7\">5<\/span><span class=\"mord text sizing reset-size6 size7\">\u00a0<span class=\"mord mathtt\">or<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"mrel sizing reset-size6 size7\">\u2248<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt sizing reset-size6 size7\">1<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt sizing reset-size6 size7\">2<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt sizing reset-size6 size7\">.<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt sizing reset-size6 size7\">7<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt sizing reset-size6 size7\">%<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<h2><em>The Distortion of US Voter-Turnout Today<\/em><\/h2>\n<p>Though apartheid South Africa and the Saudi regime in Arabia are some of recent history\u2019s more dramatic cases, the erasure of whomever election-authorities label \u2018ineligible\u2019 from voter-turnout figures is so widely accepted among the mass media\u00a0<em>commentariat<\/em>\u00a0that the legitimacy and usefulness of such calculations is rarely questioned. This enables countries like the US to erase a few percentage-points from\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/fact-tank\/2018\/05\/21\/u-s-voter-turnout-trails-most-developed-countries\/\"><strong>its population<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0\u2014\u00a0<em>mostly People of Color<\/em>\u00a0\u2014 with the flick of a pen by denying voting-rights to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sentencingproject.org\/publications\/felony-disenfranchisement-laws-in-the-united-states\/\"><strong>incarcerated citizens<\/strong><\/a>, along with a few million more felons disenfranchised by state-level laws (most of whom are also People of Color).<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\">\\mathtt{ 6.1 \\text{m disenfranchised } \\div 245.5 \\text{m VAP } = 0.0248 \\text{ or } \\approx 2.5\\%}<\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord\"><span class=\"mord mathtt\">6<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">.<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">1<\/span><span class=\"mord text\"><span class=\"mord mathtt\">m<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"mord mathtt\">disenfranchised<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"mbin\">\u00f7<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">2<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">4<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">5<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">.<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">5<\/span><span class=\"mord text\"><span class=\"mord mathtt\">m<\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"mord mathtt\">VAP<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"mrel\">=<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">0<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">.<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">0<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">2<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">4<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">8<\/span><span class=\"mord text\">\u00a0<span class=\"mord mathtt\">or<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"mrel\">\u2248<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">2<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">.<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">5<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">%<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>And 2.5% of the US-American adult population is erased \u2014\u00a0<em>just like that<\/em>.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sentencingproject.org\/publications\/felony-disenfranchisement-laws-in-the-united-states\/\"><strong>7.7% of Black US adults<\/strong><\/a>, erased \u2014\u00a0<em>just like that.\u00a0<\/em>The disenfranchisement of these unlucky, mostly\u00a0<em>non-violent<\/em>, mostly\u00a0<em>Black and Brown<\/em>\u00a0people is not accounted for in the VEP-based figures that US news-media seems to favor. Among many others excluded from these statistics are about\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.migrationpolicy.org\/article\/frequently-requested-statistics-immigrants-and-immigration-united-states\"><strong>22 million lawful residents and other human-beings<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0whose citizenship-related fees and paperworks have yet to find their way through the bureaucratic labyrinth of the US immigration process.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"katex\"><span class=\"katex-mathml\">\\large\\mathtt{ 22 \\text{m } \\div 245.5 \\text{m } = 0.0896 \\text{ or } \\approx 9\\%}<\/span><span class=\"katex-html\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"base\"><span class=\"mord sizing reset-size6 size7\"><span class=\"mord mathtt\">2<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">2<\/span><span class=\"mord text\"><span class=\"mord mathtt\">m<\/span><span class=\"mord\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><span class=\"mbin\">\u00f7<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">2<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">4<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">5<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">.<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">5<\/span><span class=\"mord text\"><span class=\"mord mathtt\">m<\/span><span class=\"mord\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><span class=\"mrel\">=<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">0<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">.<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">0<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">8<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">9<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">6<\/span><span class=\"mord text\"><span class=\"mord\">\u00a0<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">or<\/span><span class=\"mord\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><span class=\"mrel\">\u2248<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">9<\/span><span class=\"mord mathtt\">%<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>And another 9% of the US adult population \u2014 along with the 2.5% erased by incarceration or past conviction \u2014 disappears into the statistical void of ineligibility and, at the same time, US voter-turnout grows by as much as 11.4%.<\/p>\n<h3><strong><em>VAP Is Ethically &amp; Empirically Superior to VEP<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/disenfranchisement-voters-united-states.png?ssl=1\" data-featherlight=\"image\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"lazy alignright wp-image-10560 size-full lazy-loaded\" title=\"Graphic: &quot;77% of disenfranchised voters are people living in the community, not behind bars&quot;\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/disenfranchisement-voters-united-states.png?resize=339%2C261&amp;ssl=1\" sizes=\"(max-width: 339px) 100vw, 339px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/disenfranchisement-voters-united-states.png?w=339&amp;ssl=1 339w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/disenfranchisement-voters-united-states.png?resize=300%2C231&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/disenfranchisement-voters-united-states.png?resize=117%2C90&amp;ssl=1 117w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/disenfranchisement-voters-united-states.png?resize=292%2C225&amp;ssl=1 292w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/disenfranchisement-voters-united-states.png?resize=82%2C63&amp;ssl=1 82w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/disenfranchisement-voters-united-states.png?resize=333%2C256&amp;ssl=1 333w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/disenfranchisement-voters-united-states.png?resize=273%2C210&amp;ssl=1 273w\" alt=\"Graphic: &quot;77% of disenfranchised voters are people living in the community, not behind bars&quot;\" width=\"339\" height=\"261\" data-lazy-type=\"image\" data-lazy-src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/disenfranchisement-voters-united-states.png?resize=339%2C261&amp;ssl=1\" data-lazy-srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/disenfranchisement-voters-united-states.png?w=339&amp;ssl=1 339w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/disenfranchisement-voters-united-states.png?resize=300%2C231&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/disenfranchisement-voters-united-states.png?resize=117%2C90&amp;ssl=1 117w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/disenfranchisement-voters-united-states.png?resize=292%2C225&amp;ssl=1 292w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/disenfranchisement-voters-united-states.png?resize=82%2C63&amp;ssl=1 82w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/disenfranchisement-voters-united-states.png?resize=333%2C256&amp;ssl=1 333w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.johnlaurits.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/disenfranchisement-voters-united-states.png?resize=273%2C210&amp;ssl=1 273w\" data-lazy-sizes=\"(max-width: 339px) 100vw, 339px\" \/><\/a>In addition to providing a way for despotic states to edit their own turnout statistics by restricting eligibility to whomever they please, the use of VEP also sabotages the scientific usefulness of turnout data. Since demographic traits like age exist in populations of all nationalities, VAP-based turnout in different countries can be compared, allowing scientists to study how different forms of democracy and election-systems may affect levels of voter-participation. Since \u2018eligibility\u2019 is a legal construction that differs depending on the political-leadership of various nation-states at any historical moment, turnout measured using VEP cannot be compared with data from other countries or even to the same country\u2019s past and future turnout because eligibility requirements (like most laws) tend to change over time.<\/p>\n<h3><strong><em>Real Voter Turnout Is Always VAP, VEP Only Distorts It<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>At the time of writing, the 2018 US midterm elections are only weeks away and that means we are all about to hear a ton of analysis and hot takes from the news-media commentariat, much of which will inevitably deal with the impact of voter turnout. Many of these numbers will ignore the tens of millions of disenfranchised people living in the land of the free because ignoring them is what allows everyone else to continue believing they live in some kind of democracy or, at the very least, an acceptably-democratic republic. But this is a fantasy that cannot withstand an honest look at the numbers. For the sake of those whose voices are silenced to prop up the fantasy, it would be good if those whose voices are still audible would use them to call out the collaborators whose bad statistical analysis helps to make such a farcical democracy possible.\u200b<\/p>\n<p><em>In solidarity,<br \/>\nJohn Laurits<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>P.S.<\/strong>\u00a0Anyone wanting to help fight to abolish US felon-disenfranchisement please take note that one of my favorite comment-area denizens has just informed me that Florida is voting on Amendment 4 during November\u2019s elections, which would abolish the lifetime disenfranchisement of most felons in the state. I hereby encourage Floridian readers to vote \u201cyes\u201d on Amendment 4 and, for non-Floridians wanting to get involved, I encourage you to either make a donation to\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/secondchancesfl.org\/\"><strong>Floridians for a Fair Democracy\u2019s Second Chances campaign<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0or to visit\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/secondchancesfl.org\/\"><strong>their site<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0to see if you can help out some other way.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>OCTOBER 15, 2018\u00a0JOHN LAURITS\u00a0(JohnLaurits.com) Democracy, by definition, is a popular concept and, in the theater of politics, a popular concept is an important one. States usually take care to maintain democratic appearances with their populations and the international perception of democracy is often what determines whether the press refers to&#8230; <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/2018\/10\/17\/vap-vs-vep-voter-turnout-calculation-the-dark-side-of-statistical-figures\/\"> Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr; <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9968"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9968"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9968\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9969,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9968\/revisions\/9969"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9968"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9968"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9968"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}