by Randy Shaw on August 12, 2024 (BeyondChron.org)
“The mayor’s race will start taking decisive shape in mid-September or potentially not until voting by mail begins. That’s why polling on this race is not definitive and four of the five candidates can still win.”—Beyond Chron, August 5, 2024
Days after I questioned summer polling in the San Francisco mayor’s race the SF Chronicle released a new poll. It’s headline said Mayor Breed was “surging” while Board President Aaron Peskin was “struggling.” The paper then ran a follow up story on Peskin which raised further doubts about the poll’s credibility.
The poll numbers are questionable beyond Peskin’s standing. The paper’s downplaying the winning chances of Mark Farrell and Daniel Lurie is not consistent with the evidence.
Breed’s Surge
Breed’s “surge” was based on her increasing the number of likely voters saying they would rank her as their first choice or were likely to do so from 18% in February to roughly 28%. But if you add their first and second place votes—the only relevant numbers in an RCV city—-Breed and Farrell both got 40%. Lurie gets a combined 39%.
A more accurate headline would be “Poll Finds Tight 3-Way Race.” Breed is the incumbent and has been aggressively campaigning since February. The Farrell and Lurie camps were pleased with these poll numbers.
The Chronicle story does point out Breed’s critical edge: she is virtually assured of being one of the top two vote-getters. This makes her eligible to get second place votes from the third place finisher. If that is Lurie—who the poll finds trailing Farrell by a 20%-17% margin—-the outsider’s greater success winning second place votes would prove irrelevant. It would be his second place votes, rather than the second choices of Farrell or Breed, that would get transferred.
Peskin’s Numbers
Negative response to the “Peskin Struggles” headline likely led the paper to do a follow up story explaining why Peskin trails.
Here’s what I found curious in this follow-up: “The poll found Peskin winning more support than any other candidate from voters who identified themselves as progressive, with a third making him their top choice.”
Only a third? Aaron Peskin only gets a third of those identifying as progressive? I don’t buy that. I don’t think anybody buys that. Peskin is the sole undisputed progressive running against a field of moderates. Now a poll comes out saying that 2/3 of progressives don’t want to elect a self-identified progressive mayor.
If Peskin had alienated the progressive base he would not have obtained traditional progressive endorsements. But he seems to be getting them all, most as the sole choice. From the San Francisco Tenants Union to UNITE HERE Local 2 to a huge number of progressive Democratic Clubs, progressive groups have united behind Peskin.
I don’t doubt that Peskin currently in fourth place. I just think his support among progressives is greater than the numbers show. As is his chances for victory.
Asian-American Voters
Here’s what’s also curious about this poll: it found that “About 27% of Asian voters indicated they would or were leaning toward placing Breed as their first pick, while 25% said the same for Lurie.” Farrell and Peskin apparently have too little Asian voter support to matter.
That makes no sense. Peskin has represented Chinatown and forged relationships in that community for decades. Farrell’s top issue, crime and public safety, is also a top issue for Asian voters.
I don’t believe that Lurie and Mayor Breed are cornering the Asian voter market. That’s not what I hear on the ground about strong Asian voter support for Peskin and Farrell.
Lurie and Farrell
Lurie and Farrell’s best route to victory is through a second place finish that, when added to the other’s second place votes and those of other candidates, brings them over 50%. This requires they be very careful in how they attack each other.
The independent expenditure campaigns doing these attacks must understand the nuance. The Lurie and Farrell campaigns must bring down the other while retaining the other’s second-place votes. If they alienate the other’s supporters so their second choice votes go to Breed, the mayor wins.
When mailers start arriving in mass after Labor Day, the Lurie-Farrell strategy will be worth monitoring. As I wrote in my story last week and still believe, San Francisco’s mayor’s race is still wide open.
Randy Shaw
Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco’s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s latest book is Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. He is the author of four prior books on activism, including The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century. He is also the author of The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco
