by Randy Shaw on September 9, 2024 (BeyondChron.org)
Ten Years for Mayor Breed?
San Francisco’s mayor’s race really comes down to one big question: does San Francisco need new leadership for the next four years or does the current mayor deserve more time to address the city’s problems?
The election is fundamentally a referendum on Mayor London Breed. After six years in office, should she be granted another four or make way for new leadership?
San Francisco suffers from downtown office, retail and residential vacancies, citywide public safety concerns, street homelessness, a longtime housing affordability crisis, neighborhood declines, open air drug markets and drug use and a disappointing convention business.
Let’s break down the mayor’s performance on these core issues.
Downtown’s Decline
San Francisco has a higher downtown office vacancy rate than other cities. Critics blame Mayor Breed for not doing more to respond to the post-Covid downtown downturn.
Is that fair? It’s not clear to me that Breed’s rivals have more effective strategies for revitalizing downtown. Are businesses not renting downtown office space because the mayor has allowed the city’s reputation for safety to decline? Or is the core problem that San Francisco has a higher percentage of those seeking to remain stay-at-home workers than other cities?
Downtown’s emptiness has become a symbol of the city’s failure to effectively reboot post-Covid. Many people feel less safe walking around downtown. But downtown’s revival likely depends far more on private sector investment decisions than on who is mayor.
Citywide Public Safety
The main reason Mayor Breed could lose this election is that she has kept a failed police chief in office throughout her mayoralty. I elaborated on this last week (“Market Street Meltdown,” September 3)
Crime statistics are down. But those statistics have never included drug dealing or illegal public drug use.
These are the problems that trouble many.
Crime statistics also do not reflect people feeling there’s no point calling in crimes. Do believers in crime stats really think people take the trouble to call 311 when they see open air drug markets on Market Street? Or drug sales and use in the Tenderloin or SOMA?
Asian-American seniors feel vulnerable to assaults and crime. They don’t care what the statistics say.
I called for Chief Scott’s firing in February 2022 (“Mayor Breed Must Replace Chief Scott,” February 28, 2022). The reason? Mayor Breed had declared a Tenderloin Emergency that the chief simply ignored. After Scott refused to dispatch additional officers to meet the mayor’s nationally publicized “emergency” his tenure should have ended.
The mayor has kept Scott despite his failure to permanently close drug markets. His eight years vastly exceeds the standard chief tenure. Rivals talk about a lack of accountability in her administration; Chief Scott personifies this.
The mayor’s use of street ambassadors like Urban Alchemy has been positive. But Urban Alchemy has not expanded to more drug market hot spots out of concern for its workers safety. Chief Scott never figured out how to allocate police officers to best leverage the group’s services.
Mark Farrell and Daniel Lurie are heavily campaigning on the lack of public safety. The mayor remains very vulnerable on that issue, which tops voter concerns.
The mayor’s appointment of District Attorney Brooke Jenkins was her most positive move to improve safety. Jenkins has taken major steps to help rebuild public confidence in the criminal justice system.
Street Homelessness
Every San Francisco mayor gets criticized for their response to homelessness. It’s a no-win issue.
Mayor Breed used a 50% state match to purchase buildings for the unhoused. This shift from leasing to owning hotels was strongly backed by the Coalition on Homelessness, but over 1000 more supportive housing units would have been created if the same funds were applied to leasing rather than purchase.
The mayor has had trouble getting HSH to fill vacancies in the city’s permanent supportive housing supply. The vacancy situation has improved but years went by with several hundred vacancies while thousands remained unhoused.
The mayor maintains a non-congregate shelter policy that actually encourages street homelessness. How? By offering unlimited stays and free meals in hotels with private bathrooms to drug tourists arriving in the city.
Why should these visitors to San Francisco pay rent when they can live for free with meals in a hotel with private bathrooms? This destructive homeless policy promotes drug markets and creates incentives for people to remain homeless.
The mayor also provides millions of dollars through the Department of Public Health to encourage drug use among the unhoused. J.J. Smith has provided videos on this on social media. The mayor has spoken out strongly against DPH’s harm reduction strategy but continues to fund it.
I praised the mayor for funding the city’s first permanent drug-free housing site. But the $3.7 million allocated for that purpose in 2023-24 was never spent. Now the mayor has backed off from ensuring drug-free tenants get permanent housing and has issued an RFP for either transitional or permanent.
Only permanent housing gives tenants a home. And allocating funds to transitional housing would leave San Francisco without any permanent drug-free supportive housing.
Big-city mayors have never been given sufficient federal resources to meaningfully reduce homelessness. Mayor Breed has invested millions in new funding but voters angry about homelessness are unlikely to support her.
Housing Affordability
London Breed may well be the nation’s most outspoken YIMBY mayor. She has adopted nearly every policy pushed by the YIMBY movement. But here’s the problem: very little housing got built during her tenure.
It’s not the mayor’s fault that interest rates stayed high and construction materials skyrocketed. Nor is she to blame for the scarce supply of available single-family homes for sale driving up prices.
Pro-housing advocates see the mayor as a champion. But it’s not clear how many voters will back Breed based on her housing record.
Declining Tourism/Conventions
Convention hotel stays in San Francisco are down 50%. This while convention business in Las Vegas, Los Angeles and other cities has rebounded.
Covid showed how impactful the tourist industry is citywide. Conventions go beyond benefiting large hotels. They also boost hotels, retail stores, restaurants and entertainment venues throughout San Francisco. As well as the workers in all these establishments.
Is Mayor Breed to blame for declining convention attendance? I don’t think there is conclusive evidence either way. Hoteliers tell me that San Francisco’s reputation for public drug activities has hurt convention business. When I tell people while traveling that I work in San Francisco they respond, “What happened to your city”?
Social media may exaggerate San Francisco’s problems. We can denounce a “doom loop.” But ultimately people don’t feel as comfortable visiting San Francisco as they once did.
Voters will decide whether the election of a new mayor will improve perceptions of the city.
Improving Troubled Neighborhoods
The Tenderloin, Mid-Market, and parts of SOMA and the Mission are in a much worse place since Covid began. The first two neighborhoods were making major progress until Covid; their positive momentum has not returned.
The mayor has promoted entertainment zones and other positive measures. But what’s missing is a transformative economic revival strategy for any of these troubled neighborhoods. Voters may ask: why has the current mayor not already implemented such plans? Why have residents of the Tenderloin and Mission felt compelled to sue the city for not delivering equal protection?
Who Runs the City?
Breed backers often blame the Board of Supervisors for the city’s problems. Mayor Breed has promoted this view, which makes great political sense given polls showing the Board is unpopular.
But during the administrations of Art Agnos, Willie Brown, Gavin Newsom and Ed Lee one rarely if ever heard the mayor claim a lack of power. Mayors had conflicts with Boards of Supervisors. But they always made it clear who had the upper hand.
Does anyone think a Mayor Willie Brown in 2024 would be thwarted by supervisors? Brown used to regularly dine with Aaron Peskin. He knew how to get things done. Ed Lee made a point of building positive relationships on the Board. Lee also got a huge amount done.
London Breed has had the same power to impact San Francisco as prior mayors. Voters will soon decide whether she has earned four more years.
Randy Shaw
Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco’s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s latest book is Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. He is the author of four prior books on activism, including The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century. He is also the author of The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco
