{"id":24119,"date":"2022-11-14T13:22:34","date_gmt":"2022-11-14T21:22:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/?p=24119"},"modified":"2022-11-14T13:22:38","modified_gmt":"2022-11-14T21:22:38","slug":"californias-11-undecided-races-could-hold-key-to-house-control","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/2022\/11\/14\/californias-11-undecided-races-could-hold-key-to-house-control\/","title":{"rendered":"California\u2019s 11 undecided races could hold key to House control"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

CLAIRE HAO<\/a>, JOE GAROFOLI<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nov. 12, 2022 Updated: Nov. 13, 2022 8:39\u00a0p.m. (SFChronicle.com)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Comments<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democrats will retain<\/a> control of the Senate, after the widely anticipated \u201cred wave\u201d failed to emerge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now attention has shifted to the battle for the House \u2014 and especially to California, home of 11 of 19 not-yet-called races. Republicans are currently ahead in six of those races, and Democrats are ahead in five. Most are in Southern California or the Central Valley.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Republicans remain favored to narrowly win a House majority. But in the nation\u2019s most populous state, the large number of ballots yet to be counted have given Democrats a faint sliver of hope.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe House is really going to come down to California,\u201d Dave Wasserman, a House race analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said<\/a> on MSNBC Friday. On Sunday, after new numbers came out, he tweeted: \u201cDems need a miracle.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of the 218 seats needed for a majority, Republicans have won 212, while Democrats have won 204, according to the New York Times elections tracker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In California, the ballots released Saturday in California \u201cwere still good but not good enough for Dems,\u201d New York Times chief political analyst Nate Cohn tweeted<\/a> Sunday morning. There are \u201clots of votes left,\u201d Cohn said, but Democrats need to do seven to 12 points better in some key districts than they have done to date in the post-election tally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More Information<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Correction: <\/strong>An earlier version of this article gave an incorrect figure for Rep. Mike Garcia’s lead over Christy Smith. It is 11 percentage points.<\/em>SEE MORE<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many of the later counts are mail-in ballots, said Jessica Levinson, a professor at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mail-in ballots, Election Day drop-offs and provisional ballots take longer to count and verify. And a greater majority of vote-by-mail ballots are cast by Democrats, Levinson said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat\u2019s not surprising, because Republicans have said over and over again that you can\u2019t trust the vote-by-mail system, you can\u2019t trust absentee balloting and so you need to go in on Election Day,\u201d Levinson said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mail-in ballots \u201cseem to be going well for Democrats so far but they have some big gaps to close,\u201d Cohn tweeted<\/a> Friday. Levinson also thinks a Democrat majority in the House is \u201can uphill climb.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBasically every domino would have to hit for Democrats to keep control of the House. I still think it\u2019s more likely than not that they don\u2019t, but I will say that\u2019s a lot more tempered prediction than I would have had even 72 hours ago,\u201d Levinson said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wasserman tweeted<\/a> Sunday that two House races are the most uncertain. Both are in California \u2014 Districts 13 and 22, both with a Republican currently in the lead \u2014 and Democrats would probably need both of them to have a chance of retaining a House majority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In District 13, Republican farmer John Duarte is running against Adam Gray, a Democrat who represents Merced in the state Assembly. Both are running for Congress for the first time in the district, which was newly formed after redistricting in 2021. The district is in the San Joaquin Valley and covers all of Merced County, most of Madera County and parts of Stanislaus County, Fresno County and San Joaquin County.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gray is a moderate Democrat who has focused<\/a> on water issues, infrastructure and bolstering Central Valley health care, according to the Fresno Bee. Duarte, owner of Duarte Nurseries, has campaigned<\/a> on water issues, the high cost of living, school choice and public safety. As of Friday, the most recent update, with 61% of the votes counted, Duarte led Gray by just 84 votes, according to the Associated Press.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In District 22, Democrats have long targeted Republican Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford (Kings County), in a Central Valley spot that leaned further left after redistricting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Valadao is one of only 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach President Donald Trump last year for instigating the deadly Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol. But Trump never endorsed a challenger to Valadao, a silence attributed to the congressman\u2019s relationship with House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield<\/a> \u2014 a Trump loyalist whom the former president has referred to as \u201cMy Kevin.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Valadao faced a strong Democratic challenger in Rudy Salas, a conservative Democrat who has served 10 years in the Legislature. Plus, the newly drawn district supported President Biden by 13 points in 2020. Valadao was leading by 5 percentage points as of Friday, the most recent update in the race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democrats hoped that newly redrawn districts would help them oust longtime Republican Rep. Ken Calvert of Corona (Riverside County) in District 41. Democrats rallied around former federal prosecutor Will Rollins, backed by former California Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump won Calvert\u2019s old district by 7 percentage points in 2020, but would have won by only 1 point in the new district. Rollins, who is gay, has been courting the LGBTQ community in Palm Springs, which was added to the district during redistricting. But Calvert has pointed out that 70% of the new district is the same as the old one \u2014 and he\u2019s been serving in office since 1992.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Calvert led by 3 percentage points Sunday night..<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf the Dems don\u2019t turn around CA41 or surge elsewhere, I find myself wondering whether overseas\/cured ballots in CO-03<\/a> (Colorado\u2019s Third District) are their next best path\u201d to retaining a majority in the House, Cohn tweeted. \u201cJust not many options if they can\u2019t break through in one of these districts.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wasserman tweeted Sunday that the latest batch of ballots in CA-41 was \u201canother big blow to House Dems\u2019 path to 218.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In another closely watched race, in Orange County, Rep. Michelle Steel,<\/a> R-Seal Beach, was leading Democrat Jay Chen by 7 percentage points. Earlier this year, Steel was thought to be vulnerable after redistricting forced her into a less-friendly battleground. Instead of running in the more conservative coastal district where she won in 2020, Republicans slotted Steel to run the 45th Congressional District, where Democrats have a 5-point registration advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Steel\u2019s supporters were confident because her new district included the Vietnamese hub known as Little Saigon,<\/a> which boosted her district\u2019s Asian American slice of the electorate to 35%. Vietnamese voters were an integral part of the coalition that helped carry Steel to victory in 2020 over incumbent Democrat Harley Rouda, who is white.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chen, Steel\u2019s opponent, is the son of Taiwanese immigrants, a U.S. Naval Reserve officer, school board member and owner of a real estate firm. He thought he could parlay Steel\u2019s opposition to establishing the commission to investigate the Jan. 6 insurrection and against the bipartisan $1.9 trillion American Recovery Plan last year into a victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many Democrats thought Christy Smith had the best chance to flip a GOP-seat in Southern California, in the CA-27 district. In 2020, Smith lost to Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita (Los Angeles County), by just 333 votes. Plus, after redistricting, the district became friendlier to Democrats who claim 40% of the registered voters in the new turf, compared with 30% registered Republicans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Garcia, a former Navy combat pilot who opposed impeaching Trump, has carved out a conservative record while serving the House minority. He co-sponsored legislation that would enact a nationwide ban on abortion, even though an August Berkeley IGS poll<\/a> found that 70% of Los Angeles County voters disapproved of the Supreme Court decision overturning the Roe v. Wade decision that protected abortion rights. He also opposed the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes a provision that put an annual cap on out-of-pocket costs<\/a> for Medicare recipients.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition to defeating Smith in 2020, he bested her in a special 2019 election to fill the remainder of Democrat Katie Hill\u2019s term after Hill resigned. Garcia led by 11 percentage points as of Saturday night, and Smith acknowledged in a tweet that she wasn\u2019t likely to surmount his lead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Orange County Rep. Katie Porter is not only a rising star in the Democratic Party, but one of its best-funded candidates \u2014 she raised $24 million for her 2022 campaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet she was drawn into a more Republican district and faced an experienced candidate, Scott Baugh, who once served as the top Republican in the Assembly. Despite Porter\u2019s advantages, Cook Political Report rated the race a \u201ctoss-up\u201d a week before Election Day. Porter had a 3 percentage point lead on Saturday night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

San Francisco Chronicle staff writer Kate Galbraith contributed to this report.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Claire Hao and Joe Garofoli are San Francisco Chronicle staff writers. Email: claire_hao@sfchronicle.com, jgarofoli@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @joegarofoli, @clairehao_<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Written By Claire Hao<\/a><\/a><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Claire Hao is A Hearst Reporting Fellow who joined the San Francisco Chronicle in 2022. She is a recent graduate of the University of Michigan, where she forayed into journalism at the student newspaper. Since then, she has interned on the news desks of Bloomberg Law and The Chicago Tribune as well as on the editorial board of The Washington Post. She was also the 2021 editor-in-chief of her college paper The Michigan Daily.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Having lived in Michigan for most of her life, Claire is really excited to begin her professional career by exploring two different cities. In her free time, Claire enjoys reading, writing, running and playing the guitar.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Written By Joe Garofoli<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joe Garofoli is the San Francisco Chronicle’s senior political writer, covering national and state politics. He has worked at The Chronicle since 2000 and in Bay Area journalism since 1992, when he left the Milwaukee Journal. He is the host of “It’s All Political,” The Chronicle’s political podcast. Catch it here: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He has won numerous awards and covered everything from fashion to the Jeffrey Dahmer serial killings to two Olympic Games to his own vasectomy – which he discussed on NPR’s “Talk of the Nation” after being told he couldn’t say the word “balls” on the air. He regularly appears on Bay Area radio and TV talking politics and is available to entertain at bar mitzvahs and First Communions. He is a graduate of Northwestern University and a proud native of Pittsburgh. Go Steelers!VIEW COMMENTS<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"San<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\"HEARST\u00a92022 Hearst<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

CLAIRE HAO, JOE GAROFOLI Nov. 12, 2022 Updated: Nov. 13, 2022 8:39\u00a0p.m. (SFChronicle.com) Comments Democrats will retain control of the Senate, after the widely anticipated \u201cred wave\u201d failed to emerge. Now attention has shifted to the battle for the House \u2014 and especially to California, home of 11 of 19 not-yet-called races. Republicans… Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24119"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24119"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24119\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24120,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24119\/revisions\/24120"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24119"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24119"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24119"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}