{"id":27001,"date":"2023-06-19T13:14:23","date_gmt":"2023-06-19T20:14:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/?p=27001"},"modified":"2023-06-19T13:14:24","modified_gmt":"2023-06-19T20:14:24","slug":"how-downtown-san-francisco-faces-the-prisoners-dilemma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/2023\/06\/19\/how-downtown-san-francisco-faces-the-prisoners-dilemma\/","title":{"rendered":"How downtown San Francisco faces the prisoner\u2019s dilemma"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<ul>\n<li><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfexaminer.com\/users\/profile\/Owen%20Thomas\">By Owen Thomas | Examiner columnist |<\/a><\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Jun 12, 2023\u00a0<em>Updated\u00a0<\/em>Jun 14, 2023  (SFExaminer.com)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com\/sfexaminer.com\/content\/tncms\/assets\/v3\/editorial\/8\/a7\/8a7168bc-7d72-11ed-8646-8b8af963dab0\/639cbe38715f5.image.jpg?resize=310%2C500\" alt=\"Transamerica Pyramid\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>The owners of the&nbsp;Transamerica Pyramid are asking The City to knock its value down by $258 million, which would shrink its property tax bill by $3 million from $5.7 million in 2023 and for years to come.<\/em><em>Craig Lee\/The Examiner<\/em><em><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019re thinking about the problem San Francisco faces in bringing people back downtown all wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s not about the doom loop. It\u2019s the prisoner\u2019s dilemma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Game theorists&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Prisoner's_dilemma\">came up with this idea almost three-quarters<\/a>&nbsp;of a century ago: It seeks to explain how rational people make collectively irrational decisions. Start with two members of a gang in prison: If both stay silent, they get a minimal sentence. If both betray each other, they get locked away for years. But if one refuses to talk and the other does, the silent one gets the long sentence, and the other benefits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You see the problem: Cooperating gets the best result for both, but the immediate incentive goes against that, so both end up worse off if they do the reasonable-seeming thing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s how this applies to downtown: If one person works from home and the other goes downtown, the office worker bears the cost of the commute and has fewer restaurants and shops. If both go in, the inconvenience of getting downtown is outweighed by the opportunities presented \u2014 they could meet for coffee! And if both stay home, well, that\u2019s the doom-loop scenario, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Multiply that by the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.kqed.org\/lowdown\/11327\/interactive-how-san-franciscos-population-ebbs-and-flows-during-throughout-the-day\">estimated 265,000 people<\/a>&nbsp;who came downtown daily every weekday pre-pandemic, and you see the collective problem we face. The more people downtown, the greater number and variety of businesses it can support. The more businesses there are, the more attractive the proposition of working downtown becomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What\u2019s crucial is that we stop thinking about downtown space as raw square footage of offices. No project exemplifies this idea better than Michael Shvo\u2019s ongoing reimagination of the Transamerica Pyramid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"4\" height=\"3\" src=\"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/image-21.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-27002\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The top of the Transamerica Building sticks out through the fog.Ryan Fitzsimons<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The New York real estate developer has made a $1 billion-plus bet on San Francisco, starting with the $650 million he spent on the tower facing Montgomery Street and two nearby buildings on Sansome Street and an estimated $400 million on ongoing renovations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are offices, of course, some leasing for annual rents of $200 to $250 a square foot. Despite The City\u2019s high vacancy rate, prime office space still commands a premium. But far more significant for me are the other aspects of the development: a private club, restaurants, a 28th-floor gym for office tenants who want to look at Coit Tower while getting their cardio on, and a bar on the 48th floor that\u2019s currently rented out as conference space.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019ve walked past the pyramid countless times, a neat halfway stop between home in North Beach and work downtown. It\u2019s always puzzled me how a landmark can be so quiet. The Transamerica Redwood Park in the middle of the block is a hidden gem, dramatically underused given its location and beauty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Shvo plans to expand the park and place ground-level stores along Mark Twain Plaza. Retail is historically appropriate for the stump of what used to be Merchant Street. It\u2019s easy to see people flowing from the lobby of the pyramid to the park to shops; the present design is bizarrely hostile to pedestrians. The bulk of the renovations are expected to be done at the end of the year, except for 3 Transamerica, an expanded building at the corner of Sansome and Washington streets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Absurdly, for the most recognizable building in The City, the public hasn\u2019t had access to its views in decades. A 27th-floor observation deck closed in the late 1990s, replaced by a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=E9tqnCQ3ujw\">ground-floor \u201cvirtual observation deck\u201d<\/a>&nbsp;with views from cameras perched near the top. Given safety concerns \u2014 access to the spire requires a perilous trip \u2014 the building probably won\u2019t accommodate tourists looking to go up, but there should be plenty to do on the ground floor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s where Shvo faces The City\u2019s version of the prisoner\u2019s dilemma. \u201cThis will bring life into downtown,\u201d&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-05-17\/san-francisco-transamerica-pyramid-is-being-remade-in-bet-remote-work-will-fade\">he told Bloomberg recently<\/a>. \u201cAnd I hope it starts the next 50 years of downtown because I don\u2019t want to be here alone.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" width=\"4\" height=\"3\" src=\"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/image-23.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-27005\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Michael Shvo (Chairman &amp; CEO of SHVO and owner of the Transamerica Pyramid) speaking at the 50th anniversary celebration of the Transamerica Pyramid on Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2022.&nbsp;Craig Lee\/The Examiner<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>If more people commute into San Francisco, they\u2019ll enjoy one-of-a-kind experiences, like that gym in the sky and lunch breaks among the redwoods. If they don\u2019t, well, Shvo and others placing bets downtown will feel lonely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s not just about one already-wealthy developer: It\u2019s about the small businesses that will line Mark Twain and perhaps spill into the nearby alleys of Jackson Square.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One beloved local establishment is already set for a new home nearby, and hopefully, crowds spilling out from the offices Shvo plans to fill. Sai\u2019s Vietnamese Restaurant, which was set to be evicted to make way for 3 Transamerica, got financial help from Shvo after an outcry from the community, and it\u2019s set to fill the restaurant space that Bask is vacating at 42 Columbus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Having eaten at Sai\u2019s many times over the years, I can guarantee the pho will be worth the half-block trip from the pyramid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfexaminer.com\/users\/profile\/Owen%20Thomas\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com\/sfexaminer.com\/content\/tncms\/avatars\/b\/6f\/58f\/b6f58ffc-b469-11ed-a906-df7a9990d167.5f7a62e5887f0b8dec23624f0c06480b.png?_dc=1677262264\" alt=\"Owen Thomas\"\/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sfexaminer.com\/users\/profile\/Owen%20Thomas\">Owen Thomas<\/a><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Owen Thomas is a journalist and a longtime resident of San Francisco who has thought about tech\u2019s relationship with The City since the first internet boom brought him to town. His columns appear weekly in The Examiner.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We\u2019re thinking about the problem San Francisco faces in bringing people back downtown all wrong. It\u2019s not about the doom loop. It\u2019s the prisoner\u2019s dilemma. Game theorists&nbsp;came up with this idea almost three-quarters&nbsp;of a century ago: It seeks to explain how rational people make collectively irrational decisions. Start with two&#8230; <a class=\"continue-reading-link\" href=\"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/2023\/06\/19\/how-downtown-san-francisco-faces-the-prisoners-dilemma\/\"> Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr; <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[475],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27001"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=27001"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27001\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27007,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27001\/revisions\/27007"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=27001"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=27001"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=27001"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}