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By Yuval Abraham<\/a> October 30, 2023 (972mag.com)<\/a><\/a><\/a><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\nPalestinians inspect their home after an Israeli airstrike, in the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, October 29, 2023. (Abed Rahim Khatib\/Flash90)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In partnership with<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Israeli Ministry of Intelligence is recommending the forcible and permanent transfer of the Gaza Strip\u2019s 2.2 million Palestinian residents to Egypt\u2019s Sinai Peninsula, according to an official document revealed in full<\/a> for the first time by +972\u2019s partner site Local Call yesterday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The 10-page document, dated Oct. 13, 2023, bears the logo of the Intelligence Ministry \u2014 a small governmental body that produces policy research and shares its proposals with intelligence agencies, the army, and other ministries. It assesses three options regarding the future of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip in the framework of the current war<\/a>, and recommends a full population transfer as its preferred course of action. It also calls on Israel to enlist the international community in support of this endeavor. The document, whose authenticity was confirmed by the ministry, has been translated into English<\/a> in full here on +972.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The existence of the document does not necessarily indicate that its recommendations are being considered by Israel\u2019s defense establishment. Despite its name, the Intelligence Ministry<\/a> is not directly responsible for any intelligence body, but rather independently prepares studies and policy papers that are distributed to the Israeli government and security agencies for review, but are not binding. The ministry\u2019s annual budget is NIS 25 million and its influence is considered relatively small. It is currently headed by Gila Gamliel, a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu\u2019s Likud Party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sign up<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, the fact that an Israeli government ministry has prepared such a detailed proposal amid a large-scale military offensive on the Gaza Strip, following Hamas\u2019 deadly assault and massacres<\/a> in southern Israeli communities on Oct. 7, reflects how the idea of forced population transfer is being raised to the level of official policy discussions. Fears of such plans \u2014 which would constitute a serious war crime under international law \u2014 have grown<\/a> in recent weeks, especially after the Israeli army ordered<\/a> about 1 million Palestinians to evacuate<\/a> the northern Gaza Strip ahead of escalating bombardment<\/a> and incremental ground incursions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The document recommends that Israel act to \u201cevacuate the civilian population to Sinai\u201d during the war; establish tent cities and later more permanent cities in the northern Sinai that will absorb the expelled population; and then create \u201ca sterile zone of several kilometers \u2026 within Egypt, and [prevent] the return of the population to activities\/residences near the border with Israel.\u201d At the same time, governments around the world, led by the United States, must be mobilized to implement the move.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Israeli Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel attends the Christian Feast of Tabernacles event organized by the Jerusalem Christian Embassy, held at the Arena stadium in Jerusalem, October 3, 2023. (Chaim Goldberg\/Flash90)<\/p>\n\n\n\n A source in the Intelligence Ministry confirmed to Local Call\/+972 that the document was authentic, that it was distributed to the defense establishment by the ministry\u2019s policy division, and \u201cwas not supposed to reach the media.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The document unequivocally and explicitly recommends transferring Palestinian civilians from Gaza as the desired outcome of the war. The existence of the plan was first reported<\/a> last week in the Israeli business newspaper Calcalist, and the full text of the document is published and translated here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The transfer plan is divided into several stages. In the first stage, action must be taken so that the population of Gaza \u201cevacuates south,\u201d while the air strikes focus on the northern Gaza Strip. In the second stage, a ground incursion into Gaza will begin, leading to the occupation of the entire Strip from north to south, and the \u201ccleansing of the underground bunkers of Hamas fighters.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Concurrently with the re-occupation of Gaza, Palestinian civilians will be moved into Egyptian territory, and not be allowed to return. \u201cIt is important to leave the travel routes to the south open to enable the evacuation of the civilian population toward Rafah,\u201d the document states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to an official in the Intelligence Ministry, the ministry\u2019s personnel stand behind these recommendations. The source stressed that the ministry\u2019s research is \u201cnot based on military intelligence\u201d and serves only as a basis for discussions within the government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The document proposes promoting a campaign targeting Palestinian civilians in Gaza that will \u201cmotivate them to accept this plan\u201d and lead them to give up their land. \u201cThe messages should revolve around the loss of land, making it clear that there is no hope of returning to the territories Israel will soon occupy, whether or not that is true. The image needs to be, \u2018Allah made sure you lose this land because of Hamas\u2019 leadership \u2014 there is no choice but to move to another place with the assistance of your Muslim brothers,\u2019\u201d the document reads.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In addition, the document encourages the government to lead a public campaign in the Western world to promote the transfer plan \u201cin a way that does not incite or vilify Israel.\u201d This would be done by presenting the expulsion of Gaza\u2019s population as a humanitarian necessity to win over international support, by arguing that relocation will lead to \u201cfewer casualties among the civilian population compared to the expected casualties if the population remains.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The document also says that the United States should be enlisted in the process to exert pressure on Egypt to absorb the Palestinian residents of Gaza, and that other European countries \u2014 particularly Greece and Spain \u2014 as well as Canada should help absorb and settle the Palestinian refugees. The Ministry of Intelligence said the document was not yet formally distributed to U.S. officials, but only to the Israeli government and security agencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Last week, the Misgav Institute, a right-wing think tank headed by Meir Ben-Shabbat, a close associate of Prime Minister Netanyahu and a former head of Israel\u2019s National Security Council, published a position paper that similarly called for the forced transfer of Gaza\u2019s population to the Sinai. The institute recently deleted the post from Twitter and from its website after drawing strong international censure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The deleted study was written by Amir Weitmann, a Likud activist and, according to sources familiar with him, a close associate of Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel. Last week, on a Facebook page named \u201cThe Plan to Rehabilitate Gaza in Egypt,\u201d Weitmann interviewed<\/a> Likud MK Ariel Kallner, who told him that \u201cthe solution you propose, to move the population to Egypt, is a logical and necessary solution.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is not the only connection between the Likud, the Ministry of Intelligence, and the right-wing think tank. About a month ago, the Ministry of Intelligence pledged to transfer about NIS 1 million from its budget to the Misgav Institute to conduct research on Arab countries. If the Misgav Institute was somehow involved in drafting the ministry\u2019s Gaza transfer recommendations, its logo, at least, does not appear on the document.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sources in the Ministry of Intelligence said that the Gaza report was an independent study conducted by the ministry\u2019s policy division, without the cooperation of an external party, but they did confirm that the ministry had recently begun working with the Misgav Institute, stressing that the government body works with various research groups with diverse political agendas. The Misgav Institute has not yet responded to queries for this article.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Israeli tanks in the Gaza Strip, as seen from the Israeli side of the fence, October 29, 2023. (Erik Marmor\/Flash90)<\/p>\n\n\n\n In addition, the Intelligence Ministry\u2019s document was first leaked in a small internal WhatsApp group of right-wing activists who, together with Likud advocate Whiteman, promote the reestablishment of Israeli settlements in the Gaza Strip and the transfer of Palestinians living there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to one of these activists, the Intelligence Ministry document reached them through the mediation of a \u201cLikud source,\u201d and its public distribution is related to an attempt to find out whether \u201cthe Israeli public is ready to accept ideas of transfer from Gaza.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The chances of fully implementing such a plan, which would amount to the total ethnic cleansing of the Gaza Strip, are negligible in many respects. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has declared<\/a> that he strongly opposes opening the Rafah Crossing to absorb the Palestinian population from Gaza. He argued that the displacement of Palestinians to the Sinai would threaten Israeli peace with Egypt, and warned that it would lead to Palestinians using Egyptian territory as a base to continue armed confrontations with Israel. A similar plan has been presented in the past by Israeli officials, and until now, it too had not matured into a serious policy discussion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Moreover, after weeks of reports that the United States was attempting to raise the possibility of moving Palestinians to Egypt as part of a \u201chumanitarian corridor,\u201d U.S. President Joe Biden asserted<\/a> yesterday that he and Sisi were committed to \u201censuring that Palestinians in Gaza are not displaced to Egypt or any other nation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Intelligence Ministry document states that Egypt will have an \u201cobligation under international law to allow the passage of the population,\u201d and that the United States can contribute to the process by \u201cexerting pressure on Egypt, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to contribute to the initiative, either with resources or with the absorption of displaced persons.\u201d It also proposes conducting a dedicated public campaign aimed at the Arab world, with a \u201cfocus on the message of assisting the Palestinian brothers and rehabilitating them, even at the price of a tone that rebukes or even harms Israel.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Finally, the document notes that the \u201clarge-scale migration\u201d of non-combatants from combat zones is a \u201cnatural and sought-after outcome\u201d that has also occurred in Syria, Afghanistan, and Ukraine, concluding that only the expulsion of the Palestinian population will constitute \u201can appropriate response [that] will enable the creation of significant deterrence in the entire region.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Palestinians fleeing from their homes wait at the Rafah border crossing to Egypt in the southern Gaza Strip, October 14, 2023. (Abed Rahim Khatib\/Flash90)<\/p>\n\n\n\n The document presents two other options regarding what to do with the residents of Gaza the day after the war. The first is to allow the Palestinian Authority (PA), headed by the Fatah party in the occupied West Bank, to rule Gaza under Israeli auspices. The second is to cultivate another \u201clocal Arab authority\u201d as an alternative to Hamas. Both options, the document claims, are undesirable for Israel from a strategic and security perspective, and will not provide a sufficient message of deterrence, especially to Hezbollah in Lebanon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The authors of the study also noted that bringing the PA into Gaza was the most dangerous option of the three, because it could lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state. \u201cThe division between the Palestinian population in Judea and Samaria and Gaza is one of the main obstacles today preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state. It is inconceivable that the outcome of this attack [Hamas\u2019 Oct. 7 massacres] will be an unprecedented victory for the Palestinian national movement and a path to the creation of a Palestinian state,\u201d the document said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The document further argues that a model of Israeli military rule and PA civilian rule, as exists in the West Bank, is likely to fail in Gaza. \u201cThere is no way to maintain an effective military occupation in Gaza only on the basis of military presence without [Israeli] settlements, and within a short time there will be internal Israeli and international pressure for withdrawal.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The authors added that in such a situation, the State of Israel \u201cwill be considered a colonial power with an occupying army \u2014 similar to the current situation in Judea and Samaria, but even worse.\u201d They noted that the PA has low legitimacy among the Palestinian public, and that based on Israel\u2019s previous experience of handing over control of Gaza to the PA and Hamas\u2019 eventual takeover, Israel should not \u201crepeat the same mistake that led to the current situation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n When ‘never again’ becomes a war cry<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Risking arrest and assault, Israelis begin protesting Gaza war<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Listen to Israeli survivors: They don\u2019t want revenge<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n The other option, the formation of a local Arab leadership to replace Hamas, is undesirable according to the document, because there are no local opposition movements to Hamas and a new leadership is liable to be more radical. \u201cThe most plausible scenario is \u2026 not an ideological shift but rather the emergence of new, possibly even more extreme, Islamist movements,\u201d it said. The authors mention the necessity of \u201ccreating ideological change\u201d in the Palestinian population through a process of what it likens to \u201cde-Nazification,\u201d requiring Israel to \u201cdictate the school curricula and enforce its use for an entire generation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Finally, the document argued that if Gaza\u2019s population remained in the strip, there would be \u201cmany Arab casualties\u201d during the anticipated re-occupation of the territory, which would damage Israel\u2019s international image even more than expelling the population. For all these reasons, the Ministry of Intelligence\u2019s recommendation is to promote the permanent transfer of all Palestinian civilians from Gaza to the Sinai.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Defense Ministry, the army spokesperson\u2019s office, and the Misgav Institute did not yet respond to +972\u2019s requests for comment by the time of this article\u2019s publication. Any responses received will be added here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A version of this article was first published in Hebrew on Local Call. Read it <\/em>here<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Yuval Abraham is a journalist and activist based in Jerusalem.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" An Intelligence Ministry document revealed by Local Call and +972 shows how the idea of population transfer to the Sinai is reaching official discussions. By Yuval Abraham October 30, 2023 (972mag.com) Palestinians inspect their home after an Israeli airstrike, in the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, October… Continue reading ![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/static.972mag.com\/www\/uploads\/2023\/10\/F231029ARK109-1200x802.jpg\")
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