{"id":31034,"date":"2024-01-10T12:49:56","date_gmt":"2024-01-10T20:49:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/?p=31034"},"modified":"2024-01-10T12:49:56","modified_gmt":"2024-01-10T20:49:56","slug":"political-forecast-for-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/2024\/01\/10\/political-forecast-for-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"POLITICAL FORECAST FOR 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

by\u00a0Randy Shaw<\/a>\u00a0on\u00a0January 8, 2024 (BeyondChron.org)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
\"Photo<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Stakes Are High<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2024 the United States of America faces a presidential election whose outcome will either impose a dictatorship or the continuation of democracy. The stakes have never been higher. Here\u2019s my national and Bay Area political forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Forecast<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Did any serious commentator prior to 2016 foresee a would-be dictator winning a U.S. presidential election? Many contemplated dark times for America. But a democratically-installed dictatorship\u2014if we can call the Electoral College \u201cdemocratic\u201d\u2014-was not on the radar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s what the nation faces in the November 2024 election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many of us view Joe Biden as the best President of our lifetimes Others disagree. For forecast purposes I see Biden defeating Donald Trump in another election only \u201cclose\u201d due to the Electoral College. Biden\u2019s victory will require a huge amount of activist and financial resources to keep America under the rule of law\u2014-it\u2019s a situation the nation has not faced since the Confederacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democrats will retake the House by a solid margin. Senate control, however, remains a tossup. The best case and most likely scenario for Democrats could be a 50-50 split with the VP breaking ties. We could very easily see 2024 repeat the national results of 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For updated and trusted assessments of House and Senate races I recommend DailyKos.com.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

San Francisco<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thanks to voters overwhelming approving Prop H in November 2022\u2014a measure  I opposed<\/a> that aligned the city\u2019s mayor\u2019s race with that of the presidential rather than the governor\u2019s election\u2014San Francisco\u2019s 2024 election cycle will be its busiest ever. Here are the key races.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The DCCC<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One reason the mayor\u2019s race is getting little attention is that many of the city\u2019s leading political activists are running in March for the San Francisco Democratic Party County Central Committee (DCCC). That plus high profile ballot measures makes March the focus, not November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DCCC victories are driven by name-recognition and slate cards. That\u2019s why so many current and former elected officials run for these posts\u2014they have an advantage in both areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The DCCC has come to reflect the city\u2019s political divisions. The DCCC\u2019s opposition to the DA and school board recalls have prompted a \u201cmoderate\u201d slate of opposition candidates (SF Democrats for Change) who backed both (I say \u201cmoderate\u201d because that\u2019s how other media and the public define it. Opposing those recalls was not \u201cprogressive\u201d). \u201cProgressive\u201d DCCC candidates are running as the Labor and Working Families slate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Who will win control of the DCCC? And does it matter?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It matters because some voters pay little attention to local politics. They rely on the San Francisco Democratic Party endorsements in casting ballots. The DCCC endorsement most impacts community college board and school board races which are off the radar of many voters. But given that recent supervisor elections have been decided by under 200 votes, even a small impact of a DCCC endorsement could sway the outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s too early to forecast the outcome of the DCCC races because the likely voter turnout and funding levels for the competing slates are still unclear. The March results will offer insights as to what San Francisco voters are likely to do in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

March Ballot Measures<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are five major ballot measures on the San Francisco March ballot. I wrote about the three placed by Mayor Breed (\u201cWill Ballot Measures Boost Breed<\/a>,\u201d October 23, 2023). I still believe two of the three (Measures E and F) are a lock to win (the police reform and treatment initiatives). The mayor\u2019s real estate transfer tax exemption for office to housing conversions (Measure C) remains little known. As I described in my story, opposition to the measure, if not met with a strong campaign from the yes side, could make it vulnerable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fourth initiative (Measure A)  is a $300 million affordable housing bond. I support this 100%. I urge everyone to vote for it. But sadly, despite the city\u2019s desperate need for more affordable housing funds, I doubt voters will pass it. Housing bonds still require a 2\/3 yes vote. That\u2019s always been a very tough climb. It will be even steeper in March amidst a huge city budget deficit and voter anger over the state of public services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fifth major ballot measure (Measure B) could draw the most money of all. Sponsored by Supervisor Safai with the backing of Supervisors Stefani, Melgar, Chan, Walton and Peskin, the initiative adds to the current police staffing level \u201conly if voters in a future election amend an existing tax or approve a new tax that would fully fund police staffing and recruitment.\u201d In other words, if voters want to increase police staffing levels they must approve a tax to pay for it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mayor Breed, Supervisor Dorsey and other opponents describe the initiative as a \u201cCop Tax.\u201d They claim the measure wrongly conditions public safety on a new tax. Safai and backers argue that the mayor could use her budget authority to expand police staffing without a ballot measure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Who will voters believe? It depends on how much each side spends on campaigns. Labor has pledged $1 million to pass the measure while opponents\u2019 spending plans remain unclear. Ultimately, voter confusion as to what the initiative actually does could cause its defeat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A sixth ballot measure (Measure G), allowing eight graders to take algebra, is certain to pass. This obvious action should not have required a ballot initiative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mayor\u2019s Race<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ll be writing often about this a lot after March. One forecast for now: I don\u2019t believe the field of potentially winning candidates is complete. Former supervisor and acting mayor Mark Farrell may enter the race. So might Aaron Peskin. If Peskin does not run the progressive backers of Dean Preston, Connie Chan, Hilary Ronen and Shamann Walton will recruit an ally into the race. I can\u2019t see San Francisco\u2019s 2024 mayor\u2019s race excluding a single candidate widely identified as \u201cprogressive.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Supervisor Races<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

San Francisco has at least four supervisor races that will be heavily contested. In D1, the rematch between Connie Chan and Marjan Philhour is already in full swing. Philhour\u2019s campaign has a billboard up in the district saying \u201cHad Enough?\u201d Chan is fighting hard to retain her seat. And history shows its hard to defeat a district-elected incumbent (Joel Engardio in 2022 was the first to do it).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D3 has three strong candidates, Moe Jamil, Sharon Lai, and Danny Sauter (Jconr Ortega is also running).  Since 2000 D3 has only elected two supervisors, Aaron Peskin and David Chiu. This may be the most open supervisor\u2019s race in modern district election history. It is a race made for ranked choice voting<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D5 will see incumbent Dean Preston challenged by Bilal Mahmood in a race that will also draw major outside funding. Preston has never run in the current D5 so the standard advantages of incumbency may be less. Plus Mahmood\u2019s prior Assembly race and current DCCC candidacy gives him greater name recognition than the typical challenger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D9 faces a potentially tight three way race between Jackie Fielder. Roberto Hernandez and Trevor Chandler. Here\u2019s my October story<\/a> on the D9 contest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D7 Supervisor Myrna Melgar is often criticized by conservatives on social media but no potentially winning challenger has emerged.That could change in response to broad opposition to a misguided so-called \u201ccode enforcement\u201d legislation Melgar introduced on November 28. Done at the behest of a private tenant attorney seeking more income, the battle over the legislation could convince a strong challenger to challenge Melgar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ernest \u201cEJ\u201d Jones is the leading candidate to replace Ahsha Safai in D11 (he was formerly Safai\u2019s legislative aide). To my knowledge he is the only potentially winning candidate currently in the race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will the Board elected in November become more \u201cmoderate?\u201d  This outcome could be fueled by voters across the board feeling that City Hall must change. I don\u2019t buy the argument that the Board of Supervisors rather than the mayor actually runs the city. But I hear from so many voters unhappy with the status quo that the same factors causing Mayor Breed\u2019s low poll numbers could put incumbent supervisors in jeopardy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Assembly<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Catherine Stefani easily wins to replace Phil Ting in the Assembly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oakland<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crimes and violence are happening on a daily basis in Oakland. It\u2019s occurring in a volume that is hard to believe. My analysis<\/a> blames the mayor and District Attorney. An election to recall Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price could occur as soon as April. Chances of success are high. And if Mayor Sheng Thao doesn\u2019t get the crime situation back in control and finally hire a police chief  efforts to recall her will follow (one has already started<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Berkeley<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Berkeley\u2019s mayoral election will go a long way in shaping the city\u2019s future. Councilmember Rigel Robinson (Update: Robinson announced on January 9 that he is resigning from the council and withdrawing from the mayoral campaign) represents the pro-growth, visionary side of the city council that has moved the city in an urbanist direction since 2021. Councilmembers Sophie Hahn and Kate Harrison represent the anti-development faction that previously controlled city politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ll be writing about the Oakland and Berkeley political races through Election Day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With so much at stake let\u2019s all work to ensure the 2024 elections bring positive changes across the nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Randy Shaw<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco\u2019s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s latest book is Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. He is the author of four prior books on activism, including The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century. He is also the author of The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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by\u00a0Randy Shaw\u00a0on\u00a0January 8, 2024 (BeyondChron.org) The Stakes Are High In 2024 the United States of America faces a presidential election whose outcome will either impose a dictatorship or the continuation of democracy. The stakes have never been higher. Here\u2019s my national and Bay Area political forecast. National Forecast Did any… Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1709],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31034"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31034"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31034\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31035,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31034\/revisions\/31035"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31034"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31034"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31034"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}