{"id":32170,"date":"2024-03-06T13:26:06","date_gmt":"2024-03-06T21:26:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/?p=32170"},"modified":"2024-03-06T13:26:07","modified_gmt":"2024-03-06T21:26:07","slug":"election-predictions-march-5-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/2024\/03\/06\/election-predictions-march-5-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"ELECTION PREDICTIONS: MARCH 5, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

by\u00a0Randy Shaw<\/a>\u00a0on\u00a0March 4, 2024 (BeyondChron.org)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
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Picking CA and Bay Area Races<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What will happen in California and the San Francisco Bay Area\u2019s key election contests on March 5?  Here is our analysis and picks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

California U.S. Senate<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It doesn\u2019t take a crystal ball to foresee Adam Schiff leading the the race for Dianne Feinstein\u2019s former Senate seat. The only uncertainty is whether Democrat Katie Porter or Republican ex-Dodger Steve Garvey will face Schiff in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given California\u2019s overwhelmingly Democratic electorate and Garvey\u2019s absence from Republican Party politics, one would think Porter would easily make the runoff. But three factors make Garvey the likely second choice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, the anticipated low statewide voter turnout will disproportionately consist of older whites and Republicans. This boosts Garvey\u2019s prospects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second,  Porter is competing with both Schiff and Barbara Lee, further dividing the Democratic electorate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Third, I\u2019ve run across Porter backers who feel that Schiff is a lock to win in November. They don\u2019t want to see millions of Democratic dollars squandered on a Schiff-Porter runoff so are voting for Schiff rather than Porter (ensuring an easy Schiff win over Garvey).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019m sorry to say that I see Garvey joining Schiff in the November runoff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prop 1: Mental Health Bond<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Governor Newsom\u2019s ability to secure key Republican support for a long needed $6.4 billion mental health bond will likely bring passage. But polls show Prop 1 only winning narrowly. This is  due both to the expected disproportionate older and conservative turnout and by opposition from progressives who feel the measure has flaws.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you are among the latter, ask yourself what the chances are of another $6 billion bond being placed on the California ballot should Prop 1 fail; if voters defeat Prop 1, the best chance for the state addressing its mental health crisis will be gone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

San Francisco Ballot Measures<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Props E, F and C<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mayor Breed placed three measures on the March ballot. My October 23, 2023 story asked \u201cWill Ballot Initiatives Boost Breed?<\/a>\u201d Recent poll results show the mayor\u2019s launching of Props C, E and F has  not helped her politically. This despite Props E and F being headed for victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why haven\u2019t these popular ballot measures boosted Mayor Breed\u2019s poll numbers?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many reasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prop E<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prop E makes positive reforms to police practices. But open air drug markets still thrive. Nor do the absence of Prop E\u2019s reforms explain why Chief Scott refuses to send beat officers to virtually the entire Tenderloin neighborhood. This despite a city law that took effect in January requiring beat officers. The SFPD also doesn\u2019t need Prop E to prevent tent dwellers from constantly returning to their illegal positions on sidewalks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most voters will support Prop E. But polls indicate they don\u2019t credit the mayor for Prop E reforms amidst ongoing  public safety concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prop F<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve been an outspoken backer of Prop F, which requires single adults getting welfare who have substance abuse problems to get treatment. I see it winning handily. But many voting yes nevertheless see this reform as only one of many steps the city should have already taken to reduce drug tourism and tents on sidewalks. So their support for Prop F has not meaningfully boosted Mayor Breed\u2019s re-election prospects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prop C<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prop C waives the original transfer tax charge for office to housing conversions. My October story<\/a> cited opposition to the measure, which recently ran into unexpected trouble with a damaging Controller\u2019s report. The report concluded<\/a> that \u201cConversion of office space to housing does not appear to be financially feasible at the moment, and the proposed incentive is likely too small to close the feasibility gap.\u201d Even worse, the report found<\/a> that \u201cIf market conditions change and more conversions end up happening, it could result in lower taxes due to fewer jobs.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the Controller\u2019s report on Prop C was issued,  less than 10% of mailed ballots had been returned.  That tells me the Controller\u2019s report will have some negative impact. Prop C will lose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prop B: Police Staffing<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prop B is a confusing measure that emerged from efforts by the mayor and Supervisor Dorsey to get Board approval for raising police staffing levels without identifying the funding stream to cover the costs. Labor opposed the plan and could have been content defeating it at the Board. Instead, opponents  led by Supervisor Safai placed Prop B on the ballot. Prop B was designed to send a message that if the city wants to raise the SFPD budget it must pass a tax increase to do so; that opened the door for opponents to attack Prop B as a \u201cCop Tax.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dorsey has waged a verbal war against Safai and has been the most vocal public opponent of Prop B.  Prop B will lose big.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prop A: Affordable Housing Bond<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Until recently I saw Prop A losing. It\u2019s hard getting a 2\/3 vote in a low turnout election among an electorate unhappy with the state of the city. I also haven\u2019t seen the strong grassroots campaign that accompanied past bond victories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But as Election Day approaches no well-funded No on A campaign has emerged. Past housing bonds that failed to reach the 2\/3 level faced such opposition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So if I had to bet I\u2019d say Prop A narrowly loses. But it\u2019s certainly possible it can win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prop G<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Voters will overwhelmingly back the return of algebra to eight grade math classes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

State Assembly<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Catherine Stefani wins easily.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Judges<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Incumbent Superior Court Judges Michael Begert and Patrick Thompson are being challenged by Chip Zecher and Jean Myungjin Roland. Stop Crime SF<\/a> has done a great job publicizing how judges keep sending drug dealers back to the streets at the expense of public safety. But it\u2019s incredibly difficult to unseat an incumbent judge. Most of the legal profession has united behind the incumbents, because, let\u2019s face it\u2014few judges or attorneys live in the neighborhoods where drug dealers operate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I supported the last successful campaign to unseat an incumbent in 1991. Donna Hitchens became the first lesbian judge by defeating a Republican appointee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We don\u2019t have that dynamic here. Both incumbent judges will win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SF Democratic County Central Committee (DCCC)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is the first San Francisco election in history where the most activism surrounds who will officially represent the San Francisco Democratic Party. Voters have not only got multiple mailers from the competing Democrats for Change and Labor and Working Families slates but there has been more grassroots campaigning by candidates than ever before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So who will win?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My standard prediction for these races has been that name recognition wins. Voters confront a long list of names and start their selection process by picking out those that are familiar. The ballot does not segregate candidates by slate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the unprecedented spending and campaigning around these races changes the standard model. Plus the anticipated moderate to low voter turnout for March 5 resembles the recent recall elections more than the turnout we will see in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This means I see the Democrats for Change slate winning most seats. The high name recognition among current and former supervisors on the Labor and Working Families slate could keep the moderate slate from a sweep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On to the Mayor\u2019s Race<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

My final San Francisco prediction is that prior to all votes being counted the public will quickly shift attention to the November mayor\u2019s race. Aaron Peskin\u2019s anticipated candidacy has already got people talking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have a long history with Peskin. I handed out Tenants for Peskin flyers in the southern part of his district as part of Get Out the Vote efforts for his original 2000 supervisor\u2019s campaign (tenant groups backed him, Chinatown did not). I know his record well. My story on his mayoral chances will come soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

East Bay State Senate<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Voters in Senator Nancy Skinner\u2019s district have received a deluge of mail on this race. Most supports Kathryn Lybarger or Jesse Arreguin. I see those two making the runoff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alameda County Board of Supervisors<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I see a runoff between Oakland Councilmember Nikki Fortunato Bas and former Emeryville Mayor and current City Councilmember John Bauter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Please check back on these predictions after votes are counted. And be sure to vote!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Randy Shaw<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco\u2019s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s latest book is Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. He is the author of four prior books on activism, including The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century. He is also the author of The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

More Posts<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by\u00a0Randy Shaw\u00a0on\u00a0March 4, 2024 (BeyondChron.org) Picking CA and Bay Area Races What will happen in California and the San Francisco Bay Area\u2019s key election contests on March 5?  Here is our analysis and picks. California U.S. Senate It doesn\u2019t take a crystal ball to foresee Adam Schiff leading the the… Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32170"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32170"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32170\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32171,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32170\/revisions\/32171"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32170"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32170"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32170"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}