{"id":34062,"date":"2024-05-30T13:01:31","date_gmt":"2024-05-30T20:01:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/?p=34062"},"modified":"2024-05-30T13:01:32","modified_gmt":"2024-05-30T20:01:32","slug":"sf-supervisor-races-heat-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/2024\/05\/30\/sf-supervisor-races-heat-up\/","title":{"rendered":"SF SUPERVISOR RACES HEAT UP"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

by\u00a0Randy Shaw<\/a>\u00a0on\u00a0May 28, 2024 (BeyondChron.org)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

\"Photo<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Roberto Hernandez campaign kickoff<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Board Control Up for Grabs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

San Francisco has tightly contested supervisor races in Districts 1, 3, 5, 9 and 11. That\u2019s the most since district elections returned in 2000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s our latest analysis of the key races.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

District 1<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Supervisor Connie Chan is the most vulnerable incumbent. Here\u2019s why.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, redistricting brought an estimated 2500 Seacliff voters into D1. Most will back Marjan Philhour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second, a Chinese-American moderate candidate will not divert votes to Chan as David Lee did four years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Third, crime is a much bigger issue. Philhour is seen as far more concerned with public safety.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fourth, Philhour will get the SF Democratic Party endorsement. I discuss below the meaning of these endorsements this election cycle but it clearly helps Philhour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chan is campaigning hard. Self-identified progressives have always won in D1 (see McGoldrick, Mar, Fewer). Labor sees Chan as its top supervisor priority. Chan also benefits from Aaron Peskin\u2019s campaign in D1. There are a lot of progressive voters in the Richmond and those energized for Peskin will also help Chan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Philhour has the edge. But there\u2019s a long way to go.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

District 3<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moe Jamil, Sharon Lai and Danny Sauter all have a path to victory.  They are well-informed and have key district endorsements, which explains the close race (JConr Ortega is also running but despite his great work exposing retail vacancies he is not in position to win)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Only Moe Jamil has endorsed D3 Supervisor Peskin for mayor. That could mean a lot in a district likely to go big for Peskin in November. Lai has been endorsed by Peskin (who also backed Jamil) but has not endorsed him. Sauter is not a Peskin ally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What do D3 voters care most about? If public safety is the chief issue\u2014which appears likely \u2014it will matter that Jamil and Sauter backed the police staffing measure Prop E in March while Lai opposed it. Lai backed the rival Prop B, which Jamil and Sauter opposed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jamil was alone in backing Mayor Breed\u2019s Prop F. The measure says substance abusers who refuse treatment lose their welfare grant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prop E and F passed by large margins in D3 and Prop B was defeated there. If voters connect their stance on these public safety measures to those of the candidates, this could help Jamil and Sauter and hurt Lai.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sauter\u2019s prior campaign gives him a huge name identification edge. This could be especially important  in a large turnout presidential cycle where many voters don\u2019t pay close attention to local politics. Sauter is also the favorite to get the SF Democratic Party endorsement; allies of Lai and Jamil will try to prevent him from getting the 2\/3 vote required.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ranked Choice Votes will prove decisive in a race that is too close to call.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D5<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Supervisor Dean Preston faces two strong challengers, Bilal Mahmood and Autumn Looijen. Preston is targeted by some of the same moderate groups as Chan. His connection with DSA\u2019s ground game coupled with the fact he remains an incumbent for most voters despite redistricting gives him a fair chance to win. The question is whether Preston\u2019s ignoring D5\u2019s public safety problems will alienate enough voters to elect one of his opponents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I described in March<\/a> what I still see as Mahmood\/Looijen\u2019s path to victory: a concerted rank choice voter strategy ensuring each is the other\u2019s second choice. Mahmood\u2019s greater name recognition from both his Assembly and DCCC races (the latter he won) gives him an edge. But Looijen\u2019s  campaign has just started so its too soon to draw conclusions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D9<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long held by supervisors on the city\u2019s left\u2014-Ammiano, Campos and Ronen\u2014the D9 November election once seemed safely in Jackie Fielder\u2019s hands . But Roberto Hernandez\u2019s entry into the race changed this (See \u201cSF D9 Supervisor Race Takes Big Turn<\/a>,\u201d October 30, 2023). His May 5 kickoff turned out hundreds and included Senator Wiener and Supervisors Walton and Melgar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Labor has backed past D9 winners. But this year unions will be split. Hernandez was the first D9 candidate to qualify for public financing and has a field campaign in place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is Ronen still popular in D9? I hear a lot of criticism about her public safety views. These concerns could also hurt Fielder. As with D1 and D3, public safety will likely be a bigger issue in D9 than ever before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trevor Chandler is the most visible D9 candidate on X (formerly Twitter). But a lot of D9 voters are not on X. And while he\u2019s door to door canvassing to meet voters, I had not even heard of him until he mounted his campaign. His greatest impact on the race could be to ensure his second-place votes go to Hernandez. Either he or Hernandez will get the SF Democratic Party endorsement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hernandez is a legend in the Mission. He\u2019s spent his entire life in D9. His win would not be an upset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D11<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As in D3, there are three top candidates who can win. EJ Jones, former aide to Supervisor Ahsha Safai, appears to have the most window signs. Chyanne Chen has the longest career in labor, youth and community organizing. Michael Lai, recently elected to the SF DCCC, has the most money and likely the largest name recognition given his DCCC campaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s not clear to me at this point is what district or citywide issues divide the candidates.  Jones and Chen have a much longer history working in the district than Lai. That matters in D11. But until debates reveal how the candidates differ on key issues it is too soon to analyze this race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D7<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I know Supervisor Melgar has opposition but do not see her at risk of losing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will SF Democrats Endorsements Matter?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In The Activist\u2019s Handbook<\/a> I wrote how our Prop H campaign in 1992\u2014which cut annual rent increases in half and remains the biggest progressive redistribution of wealth in the nation\u2019s history\u2014tied the initiative\u2019s campaign themes to those of Clinton-Gore. I felt highly partisan presidential elections elevate the value of San Francisco Democratic Party endorsements in local races.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don\u2019t think the Party\u2019s endorsement means as much as it once did. Voters overwhelmingly rejected the Party\u2019s opposition to the School Board and District Attorney recalls. Plus the Party\u2019s ranked choice voting endorsements can easily get voters unhappy with where their favored candidate is ranked; this can lead them to thrown out the entire slate card.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Philhour and Mahmood are virtually certain endorsees. Sauter is probable. Hernandez is the most strategic and politically pragmatic first choice for the moderate SF DCCC majority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All will be helped by the Party\u2019s first choice endorsement. But it\u2019s not the game changer it once was. Considering the SF Democratic Party will either make Breed their sole first choice or give the mayor and Farrell their co-number 1 choices, supporters of other mayoral candidates could quickly throw the Party slate card in the recycling bin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My advice to candidates is keep talking to voters. That, not mailers, social media ads, or spending hours each night on candidate forums, is the key to victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Randy Shaw<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco\u2019s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s latest book is Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. He is the author of four prior books on activism, including The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century. He is also the author of The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

More Posts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source: https:\/\/beyondchron.org\/sf-supervisor-races-heat-up\/<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by\u00a0Randy Shaw\u00a0on\u00a0May 28, 2024 (BeyondChron.org) Roberto Hernandez campaign kickoff Board Control Up for Grabs San Francisco has tightly contested supervisor races in Districts 1, 3, 5, 9 and 11. That\u2019s the most since district elections returned in 2000. Here\u2019s our latest analysis of the key races. District 1 Supervisor Connie… Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34062"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34062"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34062\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34063,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34062\/revisions\/34063"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34062"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34062"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34062"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}