{"id":36491,"date":"2024-09-27T12:46:43","date_gmt":"2024-09-27T19:46:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/?p=36491"},"modified":"2024-09-27T12:46:44","modified_gmt":"2024-09-27T19:46:44","slug":"see-how-they-run-crime-is-down-mayor-breed-keeps-saying-it-but-will-anyone-listen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/2024\/09\/27\/see-how-they-run-crime-is-down-mayor-breed-keeps-saying-it-but-will-anyone-listen\/","title":{"rendered":"See how they run: Crime is down, Mayor Breed keeps saying it, but will anyone listen?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Murders are at a 60-year low, but San Franciscans are fed up \u2014 and inured to data<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Man by\u00a0JOE RIVANO BARROS<\/a><\/strong> SEPTEMBER 26, 2024 (MissionLocal.org)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A
Mayor London Breed speaking in front of City Hall on Wednesday, Sept. 25, for the National Day of Remembrance for Murder Victims. Photo by Joe Rivano Barros.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Mission<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Sign up below to get Mission Local\u2019s free newsletter<\/strong>, a daily digest of news you won\u2019t find elsewhere.Sign up<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Leer en espa\u00f1ol<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mission Local is publishing campaign dispatches for each of the major contenders in the mayor\u2019s race, alternating among candidates weekly until November. This week: London Breed. Read earlier dispatches <\/em>here<\/em><\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Mayor London Breed has repeated it often on the campaign trail: Enough with the naysayers and doom loopers \u2014 San Francisco is on the up-and-up<\/a>. Crime is down to its lowest levels, encampments are dwindling<\/a>, night markets and downtown drinking and sports teams are coming to the city. It\u2019s morning again in the city by the bay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Mission<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Stay informed on local elections \u2014 sign up for Mission Local’s free daily newsletter<\/strong> today!Sign up<\/p>\n\n\n\n

She said as much again on Tuesday morning speaking to KQED host Alexis Madrigal<\/a> on the radio station\u2019s flagship program, Forum, touting \u201cone of the lowest violent crime rates in the country.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The statistics back the mayor up: Crime rose slightly in 2021 and 2022 after a post-pandemic dip, but fell again in 2023<\/a>. So far this year, it has continued falling double digits \u2014 reported crime is down 32 percent, according to the San Francisco Police Department<\/a>. Violent crime is down 14 percent, while property crime is down 34 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The worst of the worst is also down to a decades low: As the San Francisco Chronicle<\/em> reported<\/a> last week, homicides are on track for a 60-year low. If this year\u2019s murder trend continues, the Chronicle<\/em> noted, we would see 34 homicides by the end of the year, the lowest number since the 30 the city recorded in 1960 when it had 100,000 fewer residents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Bryant<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In the 1970s, the city routinely saw over 120 murders a year. In the 1980s, often over 100. Even in the early 2000s, between 60 and 100 people were killed every year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it\u2019s not clear residents are listening \u2014 and Breed herself may shoulder some of that blame.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Poll after poll finds that San Franciscans are dissatisfied with the state of crime in the city. Residents feel less safe than they have in 20 years<\/a>, they say crime is getting worse<\/a>, and they have given the city a C+ for safety<\/a>, according to San Francisco\u2019s own government survey from 2023 \u2014 the lowest safety rating in a decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"August<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The voter revolt helped bring down the city\u2019s first progressive district attorney, Chesa Boudin, and the irony of Breed now touting crime statistics when she downplayed their importance during the recall was not lost on Boudin\u2019s backers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI think that if London Breed loses, the recall will have taken out two politicians,\u201d said Jim Ross, a political strategist who served as the campaign manager for Boudin during his 2022 recall fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cShe drove a narrative that Chesa Boudin was to blame for the crime issues in San Francisco, creating the environment for the recall,\u201d he said. \u201cHer famous press conference where she said this bullshit needs to stop<\/a> \u2014 she very much drove this line and this narrative that crime was out of control and it\u2019s Chesa Boudin\u2019s fault.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Guaracheras\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

On Dec. 14, 2021, calling for one of many crackdowns in the Tenderloin, Breed said residents should be \u201cless tolerant of all the bullshit that has destroyed our city.\u201d<\/a> Three days later, she told a New York Times<\/em> reporter<\/a> \u201cThe data doesn\u2019t matter when somebody randomly walks up to you who is on crystal meth and socks you in the face and puts you in the hospital.\u201d About a month later, during a press conference<\/a> on a rising number of killings and other statistics, she said \u201cStatistics really don\u2019t matter when you\u2019re a victim.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But now, they matter mightily to her campaign. Can she have it both ways?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhen London Breed benefitted from creating a San Francisco doom loop narrative, she was the chief sponsor and amplifier of that narrative,\u201d added Eric Jaye, a longtime campaign strategist who is working on an independent political action committee for Breed\u2019s rival, Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This election, like the races nationally and like the political temperament across the country, is about emotions more than statistics, Jaye said. \u201cVibes and feelings do drive votes,\u201d he said. \u201cIf it\u2019s a break-in, it\u2019s breaking news \u2026 [so] it\u2019s pretty hard to tell voters that everything is safe.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Breed, for her part, does this \u2014 she has acknowledged in public appearances that perception matters. In front of a law-and-order crowd back in July, during the StopCrimeSF mayoral debate<\/a>, she said \u201cI know that numbers don\u2019t mean anything if you don\u2019t feel safe, and that we have a lot more work to do.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Her campaign spokesperson, Joe Arellano, added that it went beyond perception, and spoke to a level of amity between the mayor\u2019s office, DA, and police chief. \u201cIt\u2019s not just about the data. It\u2019s about the level of coordination, the new resources, and the renewed focus on accountability that is driving the data,\u201d wrote Arellano.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Breed talked about that coordination in her discussion on KQED, pointing to new police drones, automated license plate readers, law enforcement surveillance, and coordination with federal and state agencies like the Drug Enforcement Agency, the U.S. Attorney\u2019s Office, and the California Highway Patrol, the National Guard. \u201cI will tell you that it is making a difference, even though we know it\u2019s not where we want it to be.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile residents \u2014 and campaign rivals \u2014 are not letting up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During last week\u2019s KQED and San Francisco Chronicle<\/em> mayoral debate<\/a>, two of Breed\u2019s rivals effectively said \u201cFacts be damned\u201d when Breed pointed out reductions in crime and used her well-worn campaign line that her opponents are trying to take the city backwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf you believe those stats, I got a bridge to sell you,\u201d retorted Mark Farrell. Said District 11 Supervisor Ahsha Safa\u00ed: \u201cTo consistently tell people crime is down is gaslighting.\u201d Farrell and Daniel Lurie, in particular, have emphasized the failure of incumbent leadership on the campaign trail, pointing particularly to public safety.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And on Monday night out in the tony Forest Hill neighborhood during a District 7 supervisorial debate<\/a>, Mission Local Managing Editor Joe Eskenazi underscored to the tough-on-crime challengers to Supervisor Myrna Melgar that crime is down double digits in the police precincts covering the area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He was shouted down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat\u2019s not real!\u201d an audience member yelled, as Eskenazi attempted to ask \u201cDo facts not matter anymore?\u201d The naysayers would not be swayed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cStop trying to fact-check,\u201d another said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MORE FIELD NOTES FROM THE MAYOR\u2019S RACE<\/mark><\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"See<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See how they run: Farrell pitches law and order at St. John\u2019s, longtime progressive church<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"See<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See how they run: Breed and Farrell\u2019s attacks overshadow mayoral debate <\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"See<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See how they run: What Mark Farrell would do in his first 100 days as mayor<\/a><\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

JOE RIVANO BARROSSENIOR EDITOR<\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

joe.rivanobarros@missionlocal.com<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joe was born in Sweden, where half of his family received asylum after fleeing Pinochet, spent his early childhood in Chile, and moved to Oakland when he was eight. He attended Stanford University for political science and worked at Mission Local as a reporter after graduating. He then spent time at YIMBY Action and as a partner for the strategic communications firm The Worker Agency. He rejoined Mission Local as an editor in 2023.More by Joe Rivano Barros<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Murders are at a 60-year low, but San Franciscans are fed up \u2014 and inured to data by\u00a0JOE RIVANO BARROS SEPTEMBER 26, 2024 (MissionLocal.org) Sign up below to get Mission Local\u2019s free newsletter, a daily digest of news you won\u2019t find elsewhere.Sign up Leer en espa\u00f1ol Mission Local is publishing campaign… Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36491"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36491"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36491\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36492,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36491\/revisions\/36492"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36491"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36491"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36491"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}