{"id":37335,"date":"2024-10-30T13:07:58","date_gmt":"2024-10-30T20:07:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/?p=37335"},"modified":"2024-10-30T13:07:59","modified_gmt":"2024-10-30T20:07:59","slug":"why-lurie-leads-in-sf-mayors-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/2024\/10\/30\/why-lurie-leads-in-sf-mayors-race\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Lurie Leads in SF Mayor\u2019s Race"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

by\u00a0Randy Shaw<\/a>\u00a0on\u00a0October 28, 2024 (BeyondChron.org)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Daniel<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Daniel Lurie<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lurie Seized Political Opening With Strong Campaign<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to last week\u2019s San Francisco Chronicle poll<\/a>, Daniel Lurie now leads the San Francisco mayor\u2019s race. This did not happen out of nowhere. Evidence of his potential strength has long been available. Consider our past stories:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beyond Chron, July 24, 2023<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDaniel Lurie has not announced a mayoral run but <\/em>the SF Standard<\/em><\/a> made it pretty clear he\u2019s entering the race. Lurie brings what many see as a major advantage: he has not been part of city government. Voters blaming \u2018City Hall\u2019 for the city\u2019s problems may prefer an \u2018outsider;\u2019 Lurie fits the bill<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beyond Chron, February 20, 2024<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cLurie\u2019s big picture theme that San Francisco can do better resonates with voters. So does his core message, \u201cIt\u2019s time for a new era of accountable leadership,\u201d which reflects both his and Safai\u2019s view that the mayor\u2019s race is about who can best manage the city. Lurie is strongest speaking to small groups and is spending a lot of time in such meetings<\/em>.\u201d\u2014 .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beyond Chron, April 15, 2024<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe other candidates aren\u2019t attacking Lurie. They don\u2019t think he can win. But doesn\u2019t a moderate anti-Peskin RCV strategy give Lurie a chance to get Breed and Farrell\u2019s second choice votes?\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beyond Chron, September 30, 2024<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cLurie may well be the current frontrunner. He has at least as good a chance as his rivals to be elected mayor<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lurie Took Advantage of Two Openings<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

When Lurie announced his candidacy last fall I could not find a single political insider who thought he could win. But I saw Lurie potentially taking advantage of two big openings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. No Clear Favorite<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    First, Lurie confronted a field of potential rivals lacking a clear favorite. Breed, along with Mark Farrell and Aaron Peskin who were projected to enter the race, had far higher negatives than outsider Lurie. David Chiu, the candidate most capable of beating Lurie, did not run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Lurie started the race with much lower negatives than his rivals. As a political outsider he never had to cast a vote that alienated people. Lurie\u2019s only negative was among people opposed to rich candidates who fund their own campaigns. If that were an obstacle to winning we wouldn\u2019t have so many rich governors and senators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    So Lurie was perfectly positioned to be the candidate with the lowest negatives. That\u2019s a huge boost in a ranked choice voting election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Some mistakenly believe that Breed and Farrell could have stopped Lurie by attacking him earlier. I don\u2019t agree. The unconvincing attacks now being made on his alleged lack of experience and failure to slash homelessness would be ineffective whenever made.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The attacks on Lurie\u2019s ability to hold a job are embarrassing. And likely counter-productive.  Here\u2019s a guy who, in addition to his work with Tipping Point, chaired the host committee for Super Bowl 50<\/a>, raising millions for Bay Area charities. Yet his rivals want voters to believe he cannot hold a job.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Voters clearly don\u2019t agree.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Lurie\u2019s negatives are low because the public does not associate him with the ethical taints they connect to his rivals. In an election highlighting claims of City Hall corruption, Lurie is completely free of that allegation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. San Francisco\u2019s Deep Crisis<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      The second opening Lurie could seize running as an outsider is that most voters believe San Francisco in a deep crisis. If the city were booming, voters would have proof of City Hall\u2019s success and would not turn to an outsider.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      San Francisco is not booming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The city\u2019s mood reminds me of 1991. But much worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Mayor Agnos held office (1988-1991) during the worst local, state and national economy of the preceding decade. Post-earthquake dissension, rising homelessness due to Reagan budget cuts, and the lack of revenue forcing budget cuts hurt the mayor\u2019s popularity (the years of Feinstein budget surpluses ended just as Agnos took office).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Former Police Chief Frank Jordan was effectively a political outsider when he challenged Agnos in the 1991 election. Few  thought he could win. But as with Lurie, not being part of City Hall was the perfect message to a voting base deeply unhappy with the city\u2019s direction. Jordan won.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      San Francisco\u2019s 2024 electorate is even more unhappy. Many are despondent over the lack of progress since COVID.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Residents who visit New York City, Boston, Chicago or Los Angeles see cities that have returned to normal post-Covid. They do not have flagrant open-air drug markets. Their downtown\u2019s are not vacant. They do not have sharp declines in conventions and tourist business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      No wonder voters want to give a chance to an outsider candidate pledging to take a fresh look at the city\u2019s problems. An outsider who cannot be held responsible for City Hall\u2019s scandals and misguided policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Backers of Breed and Farrell have spent millions attacking Aaron Peskin<\/a> as the quintessential City Hall insider. They seemed unaware that their attacks on insiders also weakened Farrell and Breed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Lurie\u2019s Abilities<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Ultimately, Lurie could not have seized these political openings if voters did not like him. Daniel Lurie has held countless small meetings. He has been out talking to voters day and night. He has run a virtually error-free campaign.  I\u2019ve yet to hear anyone claim he was rude, arrogant, or would not listen to concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Lurie\u2019s money wouldn\u2019t matter if he could not convince voters he would be a good mayor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      San Francisco voters want change. We will soon learn who this demand for change elects as mayor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Randy Shaw<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

      Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco\u2019s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s latest book is Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. He is the author of four prior books on activism, including The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century. He is also the author of The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      More Posts<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      by\u00a0Randy Shaw\u00a0on\u00a0October 28, 2024 (BeyondChron.org) Daniel Lurie Lurie Seized Political Opening With Strong Campaign According to last week\u2019s San Francisco Chronicle poll, Daniel Lurie now leads the San Francisco mayor\u2019s race. This did not happen out of nowhere. Evidence of his potential strength has long been available. Consider our past stories:… Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37335"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37335"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37335\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37336,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37335\/revisions\/37336"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37335"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37335"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37335"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}