{"id":37483,"date":"2024-11-05T11:55:58","date_gmt":"2024-11-05T19:55:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/?p=37483"},"modified":"2024-11-05T11:55:59","modified_gmt":"2024-11-05T19:55:59","slug":"in-san-franciscos-most-expensive-election-money-talks-do-voters-listen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/2024\/11\/05\/in-san-franciscos-most-expensive-election-money-talks-do-voters-listen\/","title":{"rendered":"In San Francisco\u2019s most expensive election, money talks. Do voters listen?\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Mayor Breed\u2019s claim of a left-wing \u2018power-grab\u2019 looking zanier with every massive donation in city\u2019s costliest political race ever<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A by\u00a0JOE ESKENAZI<\/a><\/strong> NOVEMBER 4, 2024 (MissionLocal.org)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\u4e09\u85e9\u5e02\u5e02\u653f\u5ef3\u5728\u7fe0\u7da0\u71c8\u5149\u4e2d\u7c60\u7f69\uff0c\u7f8e\u9214\u7d1b\u98db\u800c\u4e0b\"\/
\u7da0\u5bf6\u77f3\u5e02\u653f\u5ef3\uff0c\u7531 Kelly Waldron \u88fd\u4f5c\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Stop the presses: Tomorrow is Election Day. Who you vote for matters. It will affect your life and your childrens\u2019 lives in the near- and longterm. The winner will control a vast nuclear arsenal. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019re talking about the mayor\u2019s race of course. Is San Francisco\u2019s mayoral race top of mind for you? If so: What\u2019s wrong with you?<\/em> (Okay, the mayor can\u2019t deploy weapons of mass destruction. Except for that one time. Sorry, Livermore.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some 71 percent of San Franciscans in 2022 voted for Supervisor Dean Preston\u2019s Proposition H, which pushed the 2023 mayoral election to this year. The rationale was simple:<\/a> In the three prior odd-year municipal elections, the turnout was, respectively 42 percent, 45 percent and 29 percent. And in the three prior even-year municipal elections, coinciding with presidential and\/or gubernatorial contests, turnout was 86 percent, 74 percent and 81 percent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s very hard to argue that our most consequential elections shouldn\u2019t be timed to maximize turnout (as Prop. H opponents discovered). You may recall Mayor London Breed in 2022 claiming Prop. H was a \u201cpower grab\u201d orchestrated by the city\u2019s far left<\/a>. This was a statement that was ridiculous in the moment and has continued to grow more ludicrous with every passing moment and million-dollar give in the most expensive city mayoral race of all-time<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Mission<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Want the latest on the Mission and San Francisco? Sign up for our free daily newsletter<\/strong> below.Sign up<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The notion that enabling vastly more people to vote in a free and fair election was, somehow, a \u201cpower grab\u201d \u2014 let alone one benefitting a cadre of extreme leftists \u2014 is the sort of claim you\u2019d expect to be espoused on conspiracy podcasts sponsored by miracle diet supplements. It was never a mystery who would be the true beneficiaries of moving mayoral elections to presidential years. We wrote who it would be in 2022<\/a>. We did it again in January 2024<\/a>. It ain\u2019t the far left. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To the contrary \u2014 it\u2019s wealthy candidates. Or candidates with access to wealth. There are a number of reasons for this, but the first one is the most obvious: Math. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Laurance<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"A
A left-wing power grab, eh?<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Simple math at that. There are presently some 521,000 registered voters<\/a> in San Francisco. In previous mayoral races, around 40 to 50 percent of them would be heading to the polls. This year, at least <\/em>80 percent of voters are going to show up. There\u2019s a delta here of perhaps 200,000 voters or more. You\u2019ve got to reach these low-information voters \u2014 who are also the most <\/em>difficult voters to reach.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That costs money. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The political mailers that you could use to wallpaper three or four rooms in your home? Postage for those runs 38 cents apiece. If it costs campaigns 80 cents to dollar to design, print and send those mailers \u2014 and they have to send out up to 200,000 more in every batch to reach the voters \u2014 those costs add up. It might be more expensive than mailing people actual wallpaper, come to think of it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Christi4\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So when the math shows that an independent expenditure committee supporting Daniel Lurie has spent more on postage stamps<\/a> than the committee supporting Aaron Peskin has raised, period \u2014 that\u2019s<\/em> what\u2019s going on. This doesn\u2019t exactly scream left-wing power grab<\/em> \u2014 unless, when the polls close at 8 p.m. tomorrow, Lurie rips off his mask, Scooby-Doo style, and it turns out he\u2019s Dean Preston. We\u2019re reasonably certain that won\u2019t happen. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The assumption that a bigger turnout naturally favors progressive candidates is just that \u2014 an assumption. If the top issues are public safety and homeless encampments and hiring cops, cops, cops, these are not progressive candidates\u2019 favored subjects. Preston, by the way, has been adamant that he just wanted more people to vote \u2014 and \u201cthat is a good thing no matter what the results are.\u201d It remains challenging to argue against this. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And yet, his legislation transformed how mayors are elected in this city. Shifting the mayoral race to a presidential cycle, it turns out, completely altered the winning formula. No longer is this a turnout<\/em> race in which candidates target their likely voters and\/or community influencers and successfully cajole them into voting. This year, every <\/em>voter is a likely voter. Every <\/em>voter is voting. So this is a 100 percent persuasion<\/em> and visibility<\/em> race. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nov<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Instead of microtargeting the right<\/em> people, campaigns need to reach everyone<\/em>. And how do they do that? Via electoral carpet-bombing: Ads on every platform. Direct mail on top of direct mail. Paid canvassers. You\u2019re not going to believe this, but, once again, this favors candidates with wealth or access to it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paid canvassers are a luxury most campaigns can\u2019t afford. And volunteers are harder and harder to come by. An appreciable percentage of this city\u2019s unionized workforce is walking precincts in Nevada or Wisconsin for Kamala Harris instead of back in San Francisco for their endorsed mayoral candidate. Same goes for the high-level volunteers of the sort every mayoral campaign needs; Reno must be lousy with San Francisco volunteers by now. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s an additional hurdle for candidates without access <\/a>to fabulous wealth<\/a> or a dodgy ballot-measure committee enabling them to commingle expenses and sidestep San Francisco\u2019s $500 contribution limit<\/a>. As is the fact that the $500 contribution limit dates back to \u2014 wait for it \u2014 1973. Gasoline cost 39 cents a gallon in 1973. You could buy a Ford Mustang convertible for around $3,100 brand new. To put things in context, 500 bucks in 1973 had the same buying power as $3,700 today. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Roberto<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But for San Francisco candidates raising money the conventional way, $500 remains the limit in 2024. Unless, of course, they can write themselves seven-figure checks or receive six-figure gives to their independent expenditure campaigns. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Daniel Lurie, of course, can do both. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A
Mayoral hopeful Daniel Lurie with a dog at Mishka Dog Boutique at 2124 Union St. Photo by Xueer Lu. August 21, 2024.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Does that mean Lurie is guilty, as his opponents charge, of buying the mayoral race? Yes and no. In politics, as in life, it\u2019s better to be rich and famous than poor and unknown. But California\u2019s political septic tank is replete with wealthy candidates who couldn\u2019t beat out career politicians, despite spending a king\u2019s ransom: Meg Whitman, Rick Caruso, Steve Westly and Michael Huffington come to mind. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, in addition to being difficult (and costly) to reach, San Francisco\u2019s forthcoming massive electorate is difficult (and costly) to poll. So it remains to be seen how more than 400,000 San Franciscans are going to vote and how closely our behavior matches the numbers pollsters have provided.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will Lurie win? Or will he join Rick Caruso et al.? Vamos a ver. But while money never hurts \u2014 unless it falls on you \u2014 it clearly takes more than money to win. Why is Lurie potentially in the catbird seat? Discipline. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It requires discipline to stay as relentlessly on-message as Lurie, to interact with as many people as he has, and to never, ever say anything inflammatory. Some of Lurie\u2019s competitors could host a television show. Hey, Gavin Newsom already did!<\/a> But Lurie is not a showman. The impression voters had of him when he jumped into the race in September 2023<\/a> was that he was a nice guy with no government experience who was really wealthy. And \u2014 it still is. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s discipline. It\u2019s a lot harder than you\u2019d think to never go off-script, never give your opponents ammunition and never even try<\/em> to be entertaining.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, Election Day is tomorrow. Who you vote for matters. But what matters most is that you vote. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

LATEST NEWS<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Election 2024 Live Updates: From Chinatown, the Mission, the Excelsior<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Election<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Election extra! Best and worst 2024 S.F. election ads<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"Bob<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Bob Lee murder trial: Jury shown video of Nima Momeni allegedly reenacting stabbing<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

JOE ESKENAZI<\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

getbackjoejoe@gmail.com<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Managing Editor\/Columnist. Joe was born in San Francisco, raised in the Bay Area, and attended U.C. Berkeley. He never left.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYour humble narrator\u201d was a writer and columnist for SF Weekly from 2007 to 2015, and a senior editor at San Francisco Magazine from 2015 to 2017. You may also have read his work in the Guardian (U.S. and U.K.); San Francisco Public Press; San Francisco Chronicle; San Francisco Examiner; Dallas Morning News; and elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He resides in the Excelsior with his wife and three (!) kids, 4.3 miles from his birthplace and 5,474 from hers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Northern California branch of the Society of Professional Journalists named Eskenazi the 2019 Journalist of the Year.More by Joe Eskenazi<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mayor Breed\u2019s claim of a left-wing \u2018power-grab\u2019 looking zanier with every massive donation in city\u2019s costliest political race ever by\u00a0JOE ESKENAZI NOVEMBER 4, 2024 (MissionLocal.org) Stop the presses: Tomorrow is Election Day. Who you vote for matters. It will affect your life and your childrens\u2019 lives in the near- and… Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37483"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37483"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37483\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37484,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37483\/revisions\/37484"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37483"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37483"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37483"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}