{"id":39244,"date":"2025-02-04T12:35:50","date_gmt":"2025-02-04T20:35:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/?p=39244"},"modified":"2025-02-04T12:35:50","modified_gmt":"2025-02-04T20:35:50","slug":"how-can-sf-fund-muni-and-prevent-a-total-system-and-civic-collapse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/2025\/02\/04\/how-can-sf-fund-muni-and-prevent-a-total-system-and-civic-collapse\/","title":{"rendered":"How can SF fund Muni and prevent a total system (and civic) collapse?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The city and state have to look seriously at changing the way local governments can collect taxes. There’s no other option. That’s The Agenda for Feb. 2-9<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By TIM REDMOND<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FEBRUARY 2, 2025 (48hills.org)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

George Monbiot is quite the journalistic character<\/a>. He has worked, reported from, and almost died in some of the most dangerous parts of the world. He\u2019s written 13 books. He\u2019s also organized several environmental groups, been arrested numerous times\u2014and writes a column for the UK Guardian that\u2019s often among the most interesting things in that publication.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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You can demolish all the Victorians and up all the dense housing you want, it won\u2019t bring prices down\u2014any more than drilling for oil will bring down gas prices.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In a Jan. 26 column<\/a>, he takes on the Yimby narrative of Britain\u2019s Labour Party in a way that makes perfect sense, not just across the Pond but here in the US:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Build baby, build. That\u2019s about the intellectual limit of the government\u2019s housing strategy. Millions are under-housed, so let\u2019s \u201cbulldoze\u201d<\/a> the planning system and build more homes. But it\u2019s not nearly so simple.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As soon as anyone challenges the policy, the government brands them a nimby<\/a> \u2013 another of the crude truncations that pass for debate on this issue: nimbys versus yimbys<\/a>. So before I go further, let me state that I want to see lots of new social and genuinely affordable housing<\/a> built as part of a massive programme to solve the worst housing crisis<\/a> of any wealthy country. I\u2019ve been making similar calls for years, not least in the report I co-authored for the Labour party in 2019: Land for the Many<\/a>. I oppose Labour\u2019s current approach for a different reason. It will fail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The plan to build 1.5m homes over five years now depends on just six volume housebuilders<\/a>. No other mechanism is proposed at scale: Labour\u2019s extension of the home building fund to incentivise small and medium housebuilders will deliver only 12,000 homes<\/a>. But volume builders have an incentive to limit construction to the \u201cmarket absorption rate\u201d: in other words, they won\u2019t dent their profits by building enough homes to reduce the selling price. They also minimise the release of affordable homes: they tend to promise them, then pare down their promises as development proceeds. Un<\/em>affordable homes are more profitable. The government has proposed no measures sufficient to change these incentives. \u2026 The financialisation of housing is a major driver of the fivefold increase in prices since the 1980s. You cannot simultaneously ensure that housing remains a lucrative investment and that everyone is well housed \u2013 yet this is what the government seeks to do.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The US has a lot more than six large corporations that build housing. But his larger point applies in any Capitalist economy: Builders won\u2019t flood the market if that brings down prices. Profit is more important than housing. And housing has now become another Wall Street commodity, valued as an investment product\u2014which means the current system will never lead to more affordability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Interestingly, oil companies,<\/strong> which should be thrilled by Trump\u2019s promise to \u201cdrill, baby, drill,\u201d are saying they aren\u2019t so sure it makes economic sense to go to the expense of opening new wells and new oil fields unless \u2026 oil prices go up. From The New York Times<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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On the critical question of whether his policies will lead to more oil and gas production \u2014 one of Mr. Trump\u2019s central goals \u2014 industry executives say not unless prices rise a lot, something the president says he will not stand for.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

So more drilling won\u2019t cause the cost of a tank of gas to come down, any more than increased market-rate housing will cause the price of an apartment to come down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Imagine if we made policy based on the real world of modern, late-stage Capitalist economics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Everyone agrees that San Francisco can\u2019t function<\/strong>, much less revitalize downtown, without a functioning transportation system, which means Muni. And yet, Muni is a fiscal disaster, facing a massive budget deficit that right now means significant service cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Cut lines, or find new revenue; there aren\u2019t a lot of other options. Wikimedia Images photo<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As of this summer,\u00a0lines will be abolished, or wait times will get longer, or connections will be more difficult<\/a>. Here, according to the SF Standard, are the main options:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Scenario 1<\/strong>: Reducing routes that have a parallel bus service nearby. Affected routes would include<\/p>\n\n\n\n

21-Hayes<\/p>\n\n\n\n

31-Balboa<\/p>\n\n\n\n

55-Dogpatch<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2-Sutter<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6-Haight\/Parnassus<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

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Scenario 2<\/strong>: The routes mentioned above would be preserved, but \u201cconnector\u201d routes like the 35, 36, 37, 39, 52, 55, 56, 57, 58, 66, and 67 would run less frequently \u2014 every 45 minutes, instead of every 30.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The following lines would see the number of stops scaled back or less frequent service:<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\n

5-Fulton<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5R-Fulton Rapid<\/p>\n\n\n\n

9-San Bruno<\/p>\n\n\n\n

9R-San Bruno Rapid<\/p>\n\n\n\n

14-Mission<\/p>\n\n\n\n

14R-Mission Rapid<\/p>\n\n\n\n

28-19th Avenue<\/p>\n\n\n\n

28R-19th Avenue Rapid<\/p>\n\n\n\n

38-Geary<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

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Scenario 3<\/strong>: Some routes would be suspended.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

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These include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2-Sutter<\/p>\n\n\n\n

21-Hayes<\/p>\n\n\n\n

55-Dogpatch<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The problem is that the city doesn\u2019t have a lot of options. Muni\u2019s deficit this year is $50 million, and it will rise in coming years. Some of that is due to the lingering impact of COVID, when people didn\u2019t ride the bus; Muni depends on fares for about 30 percent of its operating budget. Ridership is growing, getting closer to pre-pandemic levels, but a lot of riders don\u2019t pay; farebox revenue was $197 million in 2019, and is predicted at $108 million for 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Muni decided to speed up boarding by allowing riders to enter from back doors, and pay by tapping a Clipper card. There are fare inspectors who ride some lines, sometimes, who too often target young riders and people of color.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But fare evasion is a problem. So are fares: The price of a bus ticket just went up 25 cents, to $2.75 for an adult ride, and the more you raise fares, the more incentive people have to cheat, walk, drive, or ride a bike. At some point, fare increases are self-defeating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So are service cuts: Fewer buses means fewer riders, and the less convenient Muni is, the more the likes of Uber and Lyft and Waymo are going to try to cannibalize public transit<\/a> in the name of profit. It\u2019s already happening.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The state\u2019s not subsidizing Muni. The federal government did under Biden, but those days are over. So how can the city provide a public transportation system when there\u2019s no money?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the heart of this issue is the deeply flawed and unsustainable system<\/strong> that local governments have to use to finance public services in California. The passage of Prop. 13 in 1978 devastated property tax revenues, which had been a primary source of funding for everything from buses to schools (and enriched commercial developers and landlords in the process<\/a>). The state backfilled some school funding, but did nothing to allow local government new revenue sources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, about the only way cities and counties can bring in new money is from business taxes, real-estate transfer taxes\u2014and sales taxes. San Francisco has already raised transfer taxes on high-end sales to fund affordable housing (let\u2019s hope Mayor Daniel Lurie spends that money the way it was intended<\/a>.) The city has already rewritten its business tax rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And sales taxes are about the most regressive way possible to raise money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

San Francisco could do what Oakland is talking about<\/a>, and raise sales taxes again. The current sales tax revenue is about $130 million a year; the city would have to double its local sales tax (now about 2.6 percent; the rest goes to the state) to begin to fund Muni\u2019s deficit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s not going to work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So how do we keep Muni, and the city, from a serious crisis that everyone wants to avoid?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s time for the mayor, and our state legislators, to take seriously the fact that the only way we can fix cities in the Trump era, when the federal government is cutting taxes on the rich, is to let cities and counties enact more progressive taxes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The state could do its own part,<\/a> more easily than local government can. But I don\u2019t see Gov. Gavin Newsom, who wants to be the next president<\/a>, moving to raise taxes on the billionaires he would court to fund his campaign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So that leaves local government.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

New York has a city income tax (it\u2019s about 3 percent). Philadelphia has a city income tax (3.8 percent) and people who commute to work in the city also pay (3.4 percent). In fact, lots of cities have a local income tax<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Income taxes, if set properly, are the most progressive form of taxation (other than wealth taxes, which nobody in the US has).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

San Francisco could impose, say, a 1 percent to 3 percent levy on all income of more than, say, $300,000 a year; at the low end, people would pay $3,000 a year. People who make more than, say, $1 million would pay 3 percent, or $30,000 a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rich people who itemize their deductions could take this off their state and federal taxes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead of the blunt instrument of gross receipts or payroll taxes, the city could tax corporate profits, helping small businesses, which would see tax cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That would solve the Muni problem\u2014and in fact, the entire local budget deficit problem\u2014without making anyone who earns less than $300,000 a year pay a penny in higher bus fares or sales taxes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is considered perfectly normal in many places. Not in California.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this state, the Legislature has banned local income taxes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A simple act of enabling Legislation in Sacramento could fix that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

State Sen. Scott Wiener is a huge fan of public transit, and has been talking about a major regional transit bond issue for 2026. Fine, but bonds can\u2019t be used for operating expenses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, Weiner could introduce a bill to allow, not require, cities and counties to enact income taxes for transit. Or he could create a regional transit funding agency with the power to levy income taxes to pay for (and only for) bus and BART service; that would mean rich people in San Mateo and Marin would help pay for Muni service in Bayview. I prefer the local option, but a regional income tax (NOT a sales tax) might make sense, if it\u2019s administered properly (NOT by MTC) and used just for buses and trains, not real-estate development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I don\u2019t see a lot of other options, except a fairly high regional sales tax. Scott?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The SFMTA will hold a hearing<\/a> Tuesday\/4<\/strong> consider the options; the public is welcome to comment. That\u2019s at 1pm, in Room 400 City Hall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tim Redmond<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tim Redmond has been a political and investigative reporter in San Francisco for more than 30 years. He spent much of that time as executive editor of the Bay Guardian. He is the founder of 48hills.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The city and state have to look seriously at changing the way local governments can collect taxes. There’s no other option. That’s The Agenda for Feb. 2-9 By TIM REDMOND FEBRUARY 2, 2025 (48hills.org) George Monbiot is quite the journalistic character. He has worked, reported from, and almost died in some… Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39244"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39244"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39244\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39245,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39244\/revisions\/39245"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39244"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39244"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39244"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}