{"id":47579,"date":"2026-04-08T14:28:38","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T21:28:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/?p=47579"},"modified":"2026-04-08T14:28:39","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T21:28:39","slug":"californias-confusing-governors-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/2026\/04\/08\/californias-confusing-governors-race\/","title":{"rendered":"California\u2019s Confusing Governor\u2019s Race"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

by\u00a0Randy Shaw<\/a>\u00a0on\u00a0April 6, 2026 (BeyondChron.org)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Attacks from Trump’s FBI help Eric Swalwell<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Can Democrats Make It Into Top-Two?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Two months before the primary election, millions of California Democrats remain disconnected from the state\u2019s governor race. The combination of the March 28 No Kings marches and Donald Trump\u2019s war on Iran have kept national rather than state politics on the front burner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s out of control actions across the world deservedly dominate our attention. But two other factors have diverted attention from the governor\u2019s primary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, no governor candidate has galvanized grassroots activists behind their campaign. Wouldn\u2019t you think that California would produce at least one Bernie Sanders\/Zohran Mamdani candidate who would inspire young people to get involved? Someone like Michael Tubbs, the former Stockton mayor running for Lieutenant Governor?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We always hear grassroots campaigns don\u2019t work in the big state of California. But in a large field, a candidate capable of mobilizing activists could have prevailed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tom Steyer is espousing progressive values that have won him key progressive support. But his campaign has not mobilized a grassroots base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second reason for the lack of interest is the absence of an actively contested Democratic governor\u2019s race since Gray Davis in 1998. In the last two contested elections powerful Democratic Party interests unified behind Jerry Brown in 2010 and Gavin Newsom in 2018. Brown didn\u2019t have to mobilize people as he headed to a certain victory in 2010. Nor did Newsom in 2018. So it could be that California Democrats are out of practice in mobilizing for statewide governor primary races.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Top Two Problem<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A low-interest primary wouldn\u2019t matter if California had not approved a top-two election system designed to help Republicans. But top-two was approved. As a result, a sleepy multi-candidate Democratic race could bring Republicans the top two finishers This would force a Democratic write-in candidacy to keep the governor\u2019s office.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paul Loeb recently wrote<\/a> about how top-two brought Republicans the Washington Treasurer\u2019s Office in a 2016 election where Clinton beat Trump by 16 points. The same could happen with far more dire impacts in California should no Democrat break from the pack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grading the Field<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I previously saw San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan as potentially moving forward (\u201cIs Mahan the Front-Runner in Governor\u2019s Race?<\/a>\u201d). But despite public and financial support from his tech allies, Mahan is treading water. His campaign director just left, not a good sign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I downplayed Eric Swalwell\u2019s chances, saying in my February story<\/a> that he \u201cremains unknown to most voters.\u201d But Trump Administration attacks on Swalwell<\/a> last week has elevated his name recognition. The Guardian, New York Times, Politico<\/em> and multiple other news outlets all covered how Trump\u2019s FBI is trying to undermine Swalwell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These attacks have likely built his support among voters. While FBI Director Patel\u2019s plan to release an old case file of never proven charges against Swalwell seemed designed to hurt his campaign, it will instead do the opposite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Swalwell also recently won the big labor endorsements<\/a>, which includes the California Teachers Union. We could soon reach a point where top officials, including Governor Newsom, see endorsing Swalwell as the safest course in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will Candidates Drop Out?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The campaigns of Antonio Villaraigosa, Xavier Becerra and Betty Yee are going nowhere. It\u2019s time for them all to drop out. Tony Thurmond is California\u2019s Superintendent of Public Instruction. His campaign is also going nowhere. He too should drop out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leaves Katie Porter and Tom Steyer. Both have polled well enough to stay in the race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steyer\u2019s Progressive Support<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Steyer has become the leading progressive choice. Solid Assembly progressives like Culver City\u2019s Isaac Bryan and San Jose\u2019s Alex Lee are backing him. His personally funded multi-million dollar campaign has boosted his name recognition.  His commercials during Bay Area sporting events are omnipresent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Steyer lacks the institutional support that labor unions are giving Swalwell. Steyer will not be on many of the slate cards that low-information voters will use in casting ballots.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Porter\u2019s chances remain focused on her being the only woman in the top tier. I still don\u2019t think her personality resonates with enough voters to beat Swalwell or Steyer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My assessment leaves three white Democrats while the four candidates of color are being asked to drop out. This racial breakdown led to the cancellation of a high-profile USC debate<\/a> and probably explains why people are hesitant to urge candidates to leave a race they have no chance of winning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I urged Senator Alex Padilla to run<\/a> for Governor. He would have won easily and eliminated any risk of a Republican Governor. Kamala Harris would have also easily won. California\u2019s great Attorney General Rob Bonta was not a lock to win but would have been the leader in the Democratic field. He also chose not to run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you wonder why the top three California Democrats running for governor are all white, it\u2019s because the top candidates of color chose not to run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Randy Shaw<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco\u2019s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s new book is the revised and updated, The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco. His prior books include Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by\u00a0Randy Shaw\u00a0on\u00a0April 6, 2026 (BeyondChron.org) Attacks from Trump’s FBI help Eric Swalwell Can Democrats Make It Into Top-Two? Two months before the primary election, millions of California Democrats remain disconnected from the state\u2019s governor race. The combination of the March 28 No Kings marches and Donald Trump\u2019s war on Iran… Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47579"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47579"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47579\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":47580,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47579\/revisions\/47580"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47579"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47579"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/occupysf.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47579"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}