Oct. 18, 2023 (SFChronicle.com)
Downtown San Francisco’s pandemic recovery is nearly twice as strong as previously reported, according to a revised analysis of U.S. cities led by the University of Toronto.
The city’s pandemic recovery rate was 67% from March to June compared to the same period in 2019, based on cell phone activity. That’s nearly double the 34% rate reported in the prior three months — at the time ranked as the weakest in North America. San Francisco’s recovery rate now ranks 38th out of 55 U.S. cities.
The major shift was due to a number of methodology changes, which resulted in multiple cities seeing their rates increase substantially, and was seen as another sign that the city’s economy and the return of tourists, office workers and residents to downtown’s situation isn’t as bad as previously believed.
Karen Chapple, director of the University of Toronto’s School of Cities, said that downtown’s boundaries changed significantly to include more of South of Market, Union Square and part of Chinatown, reflecting where more jobs are concentrated. Part of the Embarcadero was cut from the analysis.
Data sources were shifted from two companies, Safegraph and Spectus, to just Spectus.
Other Bay Area cities saw gains: Downtown San Jose saw its recovery rate revised to 96% of 2019 levels by June, up from 71% in the previous analysis. Downtown Oakland was revised from 47% to 74% in the same time period.
Booming Las Vegas, which just opened the hyped Sphere event venue, topped the list at 103% recovered. St. Louis was at the bottom of U.S. cities at 53% recovered.
San Francisco has been buoyed by major conventions like Dreamforce and will soon host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit with world leaders, including President Joe Biden, in November. The city’s office vacancy rate rose to a record of 34% in September, but AI firms including OpenAI and Anthropic are close to major leases, the Chronicle previously reported.
Though tech layoffs have continued, the city’s unemployment rate was 3.6% in August, tied for second lowest in the state, behind neighboring San Mateo County.
Reach Roland Li: roland.li@sfchronicle.com; Twitter: @rolandlisf
Written By Roland Li
Roland Li covers commercial real estate for the business desk, focusing on the Bay Area office and retail sectors.
He was previously a reporter at San Francisco Business Times, where he won one award from the California News Publishers Association and three from the National Association of Real Estate Editors.
He is the author of “Good Luck Have Fun: The Rise of eSports,” a 2016 book on the history of the competitive video game industry. Before moving to the Bay Area in 2015, he studied and worked in New York. He freelanced for the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times and other local publications. His hobbies include swimming and urban photography.
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