by Randy Shaw on January 5, 2026 (BeyondChron.org)
Handicapping the Key Races
San Francisco in 2026 faces an electoral blizzard. Its first contested congressional race since 1987, two tight June supervisor races on top of the November contests, and at least three high-profile ballot measures. San Franciscans will also be involved in the governor’s race and helping Democrats take back the House and Senate.
For campaign professionals, hardworking volunteers, and political junkies, 2026 should be a great year.
Here’s our early forecast of the key San Francisco races along with the governor’s contest.
Wiener v. Chan for Congress
Many thought State Senator Scott Wiener would face Christine Pelosi in the race to succeed Nancy Pelosi in Congress. He is instead challenged by D1 Supervisor Connie Chan (Pelosi opted to run for State Senate should Wiener win).
I analyzed this race in October (“Can Connie Chan Defeat Scott Wiener?”). I have since noticed two key developments.
First, people question whether Chan can raise enough money to win. Even with a massive volunteer base it is hard to win a citywide election without sufficient funds. Chan needs money to respond to the avalanche of hit pieces that “independent” pro-Wiener committees have already launched. She also needs money to build citywide name recognition.
Nancy Pelosi’s endorsement of Chan’s re-election led many to believe she would endorse Chan for Congress. That has not happened. This means that Pelosi’s $1.5 million in surplus campaign funds and the political power of her endorsement may never go to Chan.
Chan’s first financial report should prove illuminating.
The other new development in this race is the 25 story Marina Safeway project. It puts Wiener’s historic leadership for state upzoning legislation front and center. Chan was already criticizing his aggressive pro-housing advocacy but the Marina Safeway project puts meat on the proverbial bone.
Wiener has been surprisingly defensive about his role in the project. He has even gone so far as to blame Aaron Peskin in multiple forums. I don’t see many voters viewing it that way.
We will learn a lot from this congressional race whether a candidate’s stance on upzoning meaningfully impacts San Francisco voters.
Saikat Chakrabarti, the third candidate for Congress, cannot overcome Wiener or Chan. I don’t care how much money he spends; he’s up against two candidates with very loyal constituencies.
Under California’s “top two” law, Wiener and Chan will follow June with a November rematch. In the June 2016 State Senate race Jane Kim narrowly beat Wiener; he came back to win in November.
June Supervisor Races
D2’s Steven Sherrill and D4’s Alan Wong must run in June to finish prior terms. The June outcome still requires a race for a four-year term in November. So as with the congressional contest, these two June supervisor races are likely to be repeated in the fall.
D2: Sherrill v. Brooke
Before the Marina Safeway project, Supervisor Stephen Sherrill was a clear favorite over anti-upzoning activist Lori Brooke. Sherrill actively works to combat open-air drug markets and has been very accessible to constituents. Mayor Lurie endorsed him, which likely means more in D2 than in any other district.
Brooke is the quintessential neighborhood activist. A highly personable candidate, Brooke has been saying “I Told You So” since the Marina Safeway project confirmed her predictions about upzoning.
Sherrill’s vulnerability comes from the Marina Safeway project coming on the heels of his vote for the Family Zoning Plan. Even though the Plan could not have stopped state law from allowing the 25-story towers, many voters won’t see it that way.
Will enough voters who align with Sherrill on most issues care so much about the project that they’ll reject the mayor’s ally?
Expect mailings from the mayor urging D2 voters to elect a reliable member of Team Lurie. That may do the trick for Sherrill in a race that is now a tossup.
D4: A 3-Way Race?
Since writing about how appointee Alan Wong can win in June, I’ve heard enough feedback to elevate the chances of Albert Chow and Natalie Gee. The politics of D4 voters are complex.
Considered the city’s most conservative district, D4 elected progressive Gordon Mar in 2018. While that victory was seen as a fluke due to a weak moderate appointed opponent, Mar nearly won re-election against Joel Engardio in 2022.
No wonder progressive Natalie Gee entered the D4 race. Gee’s energy and personal popularity along with being the only major woman candidate gives her a real chance to win—if D4 voters are again willing to elect an outspoken progressive.
But what if most D4 voters are conservative? In 2006 D4 elected conservative outsider Ed Jew over multiple strong candidates. I had a good relationship with Jew before he ran for office and wish he had not taken political advice from prior D4 Supervisor Leland Yee. That advice led to Jew’s removal from office— and imprisonment.
Albert Chow has the same conservative outsider politics as Jew. He could easily get the most first-place votes and then win by getting second place votes from others.
Alan Wong can still win in D4. But this race will remain a tossup until all votes are counted. And the June winner still must run in November for a full term.
Other November Supervisor Elections
D8 and D10 will also see tough battles. The two leaders in the D8 contest are Manny Yekutiel of Manny’s fame and HealthRIGHT360 official Gary McCoy. Both backed the Family Zoning Plan so the winner may be the candidate who can attract votes from those opposed to this housing strategy.
I’ll hold off discussing D10 until the field is complete. There is currently no clear front runner. I am not aware of any serious challenger to Matt Dorsey in D6. I
San Francisco Ballot Measures
San Francisco voters will also face three major ballot measures in 2026.
The Overpaid CEO Act
San Francisco labor unions are leading an effort for a June ballot measure that would increase taxes on CEO’s that earn dramatically more than the average worker. As explained by SEIU Local 2015, “The Overpaid CEO Act places a small surcharge on large corporations whose top executives earn more than 100 times the median salary of their workers. Only companies with at least 1,000 employees and more than $1,000,000,000 in revenue—truly the biggest corporations—whose CEOs make over one hundred times the median salary of their employees will pay this surcharge.”
The tax would bring an estimate $200 million annually to the general fund.
With Trump health-care and housing cuts looming, increasing taxes on billionaires hardly seems radical. But billionaires and their allies don’t see it that way. And we know how they impact the information that reaches voters.
I’ll hold off analyzing the measure’s chances until it qualifies.
Parcel Tax for MUNI
Mayor Lurie and a large coalition are backing a progressive parcel tax measure for the November 2026 ballot to fund Muni. It aims to raise about $187 million annually to close budget deficits and expand services. It would cost smaller homes around $129/year with larger properties paying more based on size.
I’m convinced that MUNI’s survival depends on passing this tax. But there could be strong opposition. I’ll hold off a political analysis until the fall.
Charter Reform
It has yet to be decided what the planned charter reform ballot measure will cover and whether it will be on the June or November ballot (or both). Here’s what I previously wrote about all those claiming that San Francisco’s biggest problem is its charter:
Charter reform will not close open-air drug markets. It will not fill downtown office vacancies. It will not solve MUNI’s financial troubles. It will not lower health care or housing costs. It will not get lenders to make loans to build new housing. It will not boost the international tourism that Donald Trump has deterred. Charter reform will make San Francisco government operate more effectively. But it will not address the top ten problems facing the city.
Governor’s Election
California heads to June without a clear Democratic Party favorite. Kamala Harris and Senator Alex Padilla both declined to run.
The big outstanding question is whether Attorney General Rob Bonta enters the race.
Bonta previously rejected running when it appeared that Harris would run. He is now publicly reconsidering, no doubt recognizing that he would become the leading progressive in the large field.
Bonta would bring a Mamdani-type progressive to the governor’s race. But winning is no sure thing. Whether Bonta rolls the career dice by giving up being Attorney General —where he has done an A+ job—-is a tough call. I expect he will announce his future very soon.
We’ll have a separate analysis of the governor’s race once the field is final.
Randy Shaw will be discussing The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco at Glide Church on Sunday, January 11 at 1pm. Join us for the talk and book signing! All proceeds go to support the Tenderloin Museum.
Randy Shaw
<I>Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco’s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s new book is the revised and updated, The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco. His prior books include Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century. </I>
