BEGIN KOZIN REPORT
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Report # 310. Military developments in the Kursk Region after 17 days of the AFU invasion
August 23, 2024
How it has begun?
As it has been announced by Russian MoD on August 6, 2024, the same day from 8:00 AM Moscow time, up to 300 Ukrainian militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) 22nd Mechanized Brigade supported by 11 tanks and more than 20 armored fighting vehicles launched an attack following preparatory fire at the positions of the Russian State Border Forces near Nikolayevo-Daryino and Oleshnya (the Kursk Region, the Russian Federation) adjacent to the state border existing between Russia and Ukraine. According to Russian estimates, during several days after that, nearly 12,000 AFU GIs supported by heavy weapons entered the nearest area inside the Kursk Region stretching 12 km deep and 40 km wide.
Several key tasks pursued by the AFU
By launching such offensive, the ex-Ukrainian president Zelensky has put forward several aims: 1) to create additional front line against Russia desiring to recall many Russian servicemen fighting in Donbass and Novorossiya after Kiev has launched unprovoked armed aggression against Donbass since April 14, 2014 (repeated: April 14, 2014); 2) to capture the Russian Kursk Nuclear Power Plant having two operational reactors, and to use such action as radioactive blackmail against Russia at a potential ‘peace talks’ with Moscow; 3) to intimidate Russian civilians who became internal refugees (by August 23, 2024 more than 150,000 local civilians have left their populated areas and found safe heavens in other regions of Russia).
The AFU losses
Since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk Region and by August 23, 2024, the AFU losses amounted to up to 5,137 Ukrainian troops, 69 tanks, including foreign MBTs, 27 infantry fighting vehicles, 55 armored personnel carriers, 350 armored fighting vehicles, 158 motor vehicles, 34 artillery guns, five SAM launchers, 11 multiple-launch rocket systems, including three of HIMARS systems, six electronic warfare stations, as well as four units of engineering vehicles, including two road obstacles’ clearing vehicles and one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle.
Russia’s commitment
According to Russian MoD official information released on 23 August 2024, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue search operations to locate and eliminate AFU small sabotage and reconnaissance groups still operating on the Russian territory. The specific features of the Ukrainian attack are that there is no exact front line between the AFU and Russian troops; the AFU units have dispersed in various groups in several locations; the AFU do not have aviation support from Ukraine and use very poor manpower and logistic support.
Ukrainian POWs captured in the Kursk Region admit that their morale is very low; they lament that they do not have enough food, water and medicines, as well as ammunition.
Due to Ukrainian attack upon the Kursk Region Russian troops have been able to increase the tempo of their movements in Donbass and Novorossiya by 1.5 times.
Moscow’s determination is an ironclad – to entirely destroy the AFU invasion force in the Kursk Region as soon as possible.
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Note: My last Report # 309 dates back December 2023. Probably I will resume sending them from time to time.
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END OF KOZIN REPORT
(Courtesy of Janet Kobren)
