by Randy Shaw on October 27, 2025 (BeyondChron.org)
On October 6 I assessed a likely three-way race to succeed Congressmember Nancy Pelosi. She is expected to announce her decision not to run after the November elections. Evidence has since emerged that Pelosi’s daughter, Christine, will not run and that the legendary former Speaker would back D1 Supervisor Connie Chan.
As stated in Politico, “Chan was the only local elected official to speak alongside Pelosi at a related labor event to rally support for Democrats’ gerrymandering proposal. The two posed together for photos at a union hall surrounded by dozens of workers. Many local political observers interpreted the event as an indicator of Pelosi’s thinking — especially after Chan’s reelection fight last year, when she narrowly defeated a moderate challenger with the help of Pelosi’s endorsement and union money.”
My sources tell me that Chan planned on running for State Senate in the special election following Wiener’s election to Congress. But some Chan supporters have a larger goal. They think Chan can curtail Wiener’s political career by defeating him in the congressional race. Even if she lost, running a strong campaign would make her the clear favorite in the state senate contest in early 2027.
Would Chan pose a serious threat to Wiener? He announced his candidacy last week with a powerful video about his family background and political legacy. Here’s how the race looks.
Chan’s Strengths
Chan has a much stronger Chinese-American voter base than Wiener. He won strong support from this community in his 2016 State Senate race as Korean-American Jane Kim could not get votes that Chan will secure.
Wiener’s strong support for Joel Engardio and Prop K (the Great Highway measure) hurts him among the Westside’s Chinese-American voters. In contrast, Chan is pushing for a citywide vote to reverse Prop K. A repeal Prop K measure on the June ballot would lose citywide but the fact that she is talking about reversing Prop K boosts her with the moderate to conservative Westside voters she needs to win.
Stereotypes about Westside Chinese-American voting depict the constituency as too moderate or conservative to back Chan. Yet she has twice won election from that demographic in D1. In 2024 Chan won by over 1000 votes despite redistricting adding conservative Sea Cliff voters to her district.
As with Harry Britt’s campaign against Nancy Pelosi in 1987, a theme of Wiener’s effort is likely to be San Francisco electing its first LGBTQ congressmember. But Chan can offer a counter-narrative: she would be the city’s first Chinese-American elected to that office.
Chan is a great campaigner. People like her.
Chan would be universally supported by progressive voters. If she runs, Saikat Chakrabarti will either drop out or get far fewer votes than if Christine Pelosi were Wiener’s chief opponent. If you combine progressives with her support from Westside Chinese-Americans and moderates who don’t like Wiener for one reason or another, a path for a Chan victory is there.
Chan’s Challenges
Chan will need money to get her message out. Never having run outside of D1, she has nowhere near the financial backing and name recognition as Wiener (Wiener raised $730,000 within days of announcing his candidacy).
The union money that helped Chan win in 2024 may not be as available in the congressional race. Labor’s priority is stopping Trump. Does it make sense for unions to divert money from swing congressional races to fund Chan against a rival who, if elected, will vote with labor 100% of the time? Plus Wiener also has strong labor support.
I understand that the June election is a primary. But money labor spends in June is not available in the historically significant November 2026 national elections.
Can Nancy Pelosi find ways to fund Chan’s campaign? I had always heard that Pelosi had $5 million to spend on her daughter’s effort. I recently had that number confirmed by a political insider. Nancy Pelosi would not back a candidate in San Francisco and then not ensure the campaign had sufficient funds.
Chan’s biggest challenge is that Scott Wiener is a political powerhouse. I described his strengths in my October story. Since that time Wiener has been aggressively attacking Trump on social media. He is sending a message that he is the fighter San Francisco needs in Washington DC.
Can Chan convince voters she can outdo Wiener in fighting for the city? That won’t be easy.
Post-November Election Announcements
If Chan is running I assume she will announce after the November elections.That post Prop 50 marker may also answer a question on many people’s minds: Will California Senator Alex Padilla run for Governor?
Would potentially strong Democrats like Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis drop out of the race unless they assumed Padilla was going to be in? Padilla would be the immediate front runner. He can assemble the broad coalition necessary to win.
As a big fan of the Senator, here’s hoping the answer to whether he is running for governor is Yes.
Randy Shaw
<I>Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco’s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s new book is the revised and updated, The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco. His prior books include Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century. </I>
