by Randy Shaw on May 18, 2026 (BeyondChron.org)
Will Democrats Take Top Two?
California’s Governor’s race has shifted. The risk of two Republicans topping the field has sharply declined. Xavier Becerra is first or second in recent polls with Tom Steyer close behind; both could make the November runoff.
I was out of the country when polls found Eric Swalwell voters primarily switching to Becerra. Bacerra has since become the Democratic frontrunner. How long this lasts is unclear. After long being ignored by rivals, Becerra is under attack in both paid media and major newspapers. He may have peaked too soon.
I’ve always had good feelings about Becerra. I met him last fall where we had a brief talk. I told him how disappointed I was that Senator Alex Padilla decided not to run for Governor; I didn’t know Becerra was a candidate).
Progressives are Backing Steyer
With Becerra now among the top two in polls, he offers the historic opportunity for California to elect a Latino Governor. But as looked into his backers I found virtually no progressive legislators. I had previously noted that two of the most solid Sacramento progressives—Isaac Bryan of Culver City and San Jose’s Alex Lee—had endorsed Tom Steyer. Steyer has since been endorsed by the California Nurses Association, the California Teachers Association, UNITE HERE, the Sierra Club and a host of other progressive organizations and activists.
Betty Yee, my original choice for governor, left the race and endorsed Steyer.
Some are reluctant to favor a white billionaire over a longtime Latino public official. But the political differences between Steyer and Becerra are not a close call. Steyer is clearly more progressive.
Steyer would be among the nation’s most progressive governors. And likely California’s most progressive governor since Jerry Brown first two terms. Unlike Brown and Gavin Newsom, Steyer would work more closely with legislators and constituency groups. Lacking the charisma and personal following of his predecessors, Steyer would bring a more collaborative leadership model.
Billionaires have spent millions attacking Steyer. Many rich people see Steyer as a traitor to his class.
The Mystery of CA Politics
The California economy is among the world’s largest. Yet few voters pay close attention to legislative actions in Sacramento. Nor do they seem well informed about what Governor Newsom actually does.
There isn’t much media coverage about what happens in California government outside of Newsom press events. I don’t think most California voters have a clear sense of the governor’s powers. They clearly do not hear enough about the backroom dealing that is par for the course in Sacramento.
California’s governor can create a positive progressive political model for the nation. Newsom tries to do this but when he promotes progressive state policies he’s accused of really promoting his expected 2028 presidential run.
Promoting a California policy model won’t be a problem for Tom Steyer.
What About Porter and Mahan?
Katie Porter is a solid progressive. She simply has not resonated with the electorate. In recent polls Porter is at 10% and 12%. She will not become California’s first woman governor.
For moderate Democrats, San Jose’s Matt Mahan remains in the race. In a February story I foresaw a huge upside for Mahan. I thought he could become the front-runner. But his campaign never took off despite ample funding from the tech sector.
The two most recent polls have Mahan in 6th place at 7% and 8%. It appears Mahan wasn’t ready to run a statewide campaign. Gavin Newsom held elective office for over a decade before running for Lieutenant Governor; Mahan started his political career on the San Jose City Council in 2021.
The overwhelming Democratic legislature is not as progressive as many believe. That’s why progressives need to support the most progressive governor’s candidate who can win. Tom Steyer is the one.
Randy Shaw
Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco’s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s new book is the revised and updated, The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco. His prior books include Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century.
