by Randy Shaw on March 4, 2024 (BeyondChron.org)
Picking CA and Bay Area Races
What will happen in California and the San Francisco Bay Area’s key election contests on March 5? Here is our analysis and picks.
California U.S. Senate
It doesn’t take a crystal ball to foresee Adam Schiff leading the the race for Dianne Feinstein’s former Senate seat. The only uncertainty is whether Democrat Katie Porter or Republican ex-Dodger Steve Garvey will face Schiff in November.
Given California’s overwhelmingly Democratic electorate and Garvey’s absence from Republican Party politics, one would think Porter would easily make the runoff. But three factors make Garvey the likely second choice.
First, the anticipated low statewide voter turnout will disproportionately consist of older whites and Republicans. This boosts Garvey’s prospects.
Second, Porter is competing with both Schiff and Barbara Lee, further dividing the Democratic electorate.
Third, I’ve run across Porter backers who feel that Schiff is a lock to win in November. They don’t want to see millions of Democratic dollars squandered on a Schiff-Porter runoff so are voting for Schiff rather than Porter (ensuring an easy Schiff win over Garvey).
I’m sorry to say that I see Garvey joining Schiff in the November runoff.
Prop 1: Mental Health Bond
Governor Newsom’s ability to secure key Republican support for a long needed $6.4 billion mental health bond will likely bring passage. But polls show Prop 1 only winning narrowly. This is due both to the expected disproportionate older and conservative turnout and by opposition from progressives who feel the measure has flaws.
If you are among the latter, ask yourself what the chances are of another $6 billion bond being placed on the California ballot should Prop 1 fail; if voters defeat Prop 1, the best chance for the state addressing its mental health crisis will be gone.
San Francisco Ballot Measures
Props E, F and C
Mayor Breed placed three measures on the March ballot. My October 23, 2023 story asked “Will Ballot Initiatives Boost Breed?” Recent poll results show the mayor’s launching of Props C, E and F has not helped her politically. This despite Props E and F being headed for victory.
Why haven’t these popular ballot measures boosted Mayor Breed’s poll numbers?
Many reasons.
Prop E
Prop E makes positive reforms to police practices. But open air drug markets still thrive. Nor do the absence of Prop E’s reforms explain why Chief Scott refuses to send beat officers to virtually the entire Tenderloin neighborhood. This despite a city law that took effect in January requiring beat officers. The SFPD also doesn’t need Prop E to prevent tent dwellers from constantly returning to their illegal positions on sidewalks.
Most voters will support Prop E. But polls indicate they don’t credit the mayor for Prop E reforms amidst ongoing public safety concerns.
Prop F
I’ve been an outspoken backer of Prop F, which requires single adults getting welfare who have substance abuse problems to get treatment. I see it winning handily. But many voting yes nevertheless see this reform as only one of many steps the city should have already taken to reduce drug tourism and tents on sidewalks. So their support for Prop F has not meaningfully boosted Mayor Breed’s re-election prospects.
Prop C
Prop C waives the original transfer tax charge for office to housing conversions. My October story cited opposition to the measure, which recently ran into unexpected trouble with a damaging Controller’s report. The report concluded that “Conversion of office space to housing does not appear to be financially feasible at the moment, and the proposed incentive is likely too small to close the feasibility gap.” Even worse, the report found that “If market conditions change and more conversions end up happening, it could result in lower taxes due to fewer jobs.”
When the Controller’s report on Prop C was issued, less than 10% of mailed ballots had been returned. That tells me the Controller’s report will have some negative impact. Prop C will lose.
Prop B: Police Staffing
Prop B is a confusing measure that emerged from efforts by the mayor and Supervisor Dorsey to get Board approval for raising police staffing levels without identifying the funding stream to cover the costs. Labor opposed the plan and could have been content defeating it at the Board. Instead, opponents led by Supervisor Safai placed Prop B on the ballot. Prop B was designed to send a message that if the city wants to raise the SFPD budget it must pass a tax increase to do so; that opened the door for opponents to attack Prop B as a “Cop Tax.”
Dorsey has waged a verbal war against Safai and has been the most vocal public opponent of Prop B. Prop B will lose big.
Prop A: Affordable Housing Bond
Until recently I saw Prop A losing. It’s hard getting a 2/3 vote in a low turnout election among an electorate unhappy with the state of the city. I also haven’t seen the strong grassroots campaign that accompanied past bond victories.
But as Election Day approaches no well-funded No on A campaign has emerged. Past housing bonds that failed to reach the 2/3 level faced such opposition.
So if I had to bet I’d say Prop A narrowly loses. But it’s certainly possible it can win.
Prop G
Voters will overwhelmingly back the return of algebra to eight grade math classes.
State Assembly
Catherine Stefani wins easily.
Judges
Incumbent Superior Court Judges Michael Begert and Patrick Thompson are being challenged by Chip Zecher and Jean Myungjin Roland. Stop Crime SF has done a great job publicizing how judges keep sending drug dealers back to the streets at the expense of public safety. But it’s incredibly difficult to unseat an incumbent judge. Most of the legal profession has united behind the incumbents, because, let’s face it—few judges or attorneys live in the neighborhoods where drug dealers operate.
I supported the last successful campaign to unseat an incumbent in 1991. Donna Hitchens became the first lesbian judge by defeating a Republican appointee.
We don’t have that dynamic here. Both incumbent judges will win.
SF Democratic County Central Committee (DCCC)
This is the first San Francisco election in history where the most activism surrounds who will officially represent the San Francisco Democratic Party. Voters have not only got multiple mailers from the competing Democrats for Change and Labor and Working Families slates but there has been more grassroots campaigning by candidates than ever before.
So who will win?
My standard prediction for these races has been that name recognition wins. Voters confront a long list of names and start their selection process by picking out those that are familiar. The ballot does not segregate candidates by slate.
But the unprecedented spending and campaigning around these races changes the standard model. Plus the anticipated moderate to low voter turnout for March 5 resembles the recent recall elections more than the turnout we will see in November.
This means I see the Democrats for Change slate winning most seats. The high name recognition among current and former supervisors on the Labor and Working Families slate could keep the moderate slate from a sweep.
On to the Mayor’s Race
My final San Francisco prediction is that prior to all votes being counted the public will quickly shift attention to the November mayor’s race. Aaron Peskin’s anticipated candidacy has already got people talking.
I have a long history with Peskin. I handed out Tenants for Peskin flyers in the southern part of his district as part of Get Out the Vote efforts for his original 2000 supervisor’s campaign (tenant groups backed him, Chinatown did not). I know his record well. My story on his mayoral chances will come soon.
East Bay State Senate
Voters in Senator Nancy Skinner’s district have received a deluge of mail on this race. Most supports Kathryn Lybarger or Jesse Arreguin. I see those two making the runoff.
Alameda County Board of Supervisors
I see a runoff between Oakland Councilmember Nikki Fortunato Bas and former Emeryville Mayor and current City Councilmember John Bauter.
Please check back on these predictions after votes are counted. And be sure to vote!
Randy Shaw
Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco’s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s latest book is Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. He is the author of four prior books on activism, including The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century. He is also the author of The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco
