by Randy Shaw on March 11, 2024 (BeyondChron.org)
Flyer from Peskin’s 2000 Supervisor’s race
Peskin Galvanizes SF’s Mayor’s Race
While he has not formally announced his candidacy, Aaron Peskin has made it clear he is running for San Francisco mayor. I had long assumed this would happen.
Peskin has decided to join the race. And San Francisco now has the most open mayor’s race since 1975.
There is no clear front runner.
Let me share by sharing my history with Aaron Peskin.
Saving The Columbo Building (1998-99)
I first heard from Aaron Peskin when he called me in 1998. His father had recommended that he read my book, The Activist’s Handbook (first published by UC Press in 1996). He sought my advice on how to save North Beach’s historic Columbo Building.
City College had bought the property in the fall of 1997. It planned to demolish it for a new Chinatown campus. Peskin sought to save the historic building, feeling it “really incorporates a benchmark between North Beach and the Financial District.”
The demolition would also displace tenants, which is why Peskin sought my counsel. We teamed up to get the SF Bay Guardian on board; the weekly vigorously promoted the “Save the Columbo Building” campaign. Peskin filed a lawsuit to stop the demolition. I’m not sure if he was head of the Telegraph Hill Dwellers when we first met but he held that position during the struggle.
Peskin was an outsider in the North Beach/Chinatown community. North Beach activists were mad at him for challenging plans for a new parking garage for the local police station; he angered Chinatown activists for blocking plans for a long sought Chinatown campus. (For more on Peskin’s pre-Supervisor days see my January 10, 2005 story, “What Drives Aaron Peskin?“).
We saved the Columbo building. Peskin’s willingness to take on tough fights impressed me. Tenant groups rallied to back him when he decided to run for D3 Supervisor in 2000.
I still recall handing out Tenants for Peskin flyers (see above) as part of the Get Out the Vote push in the portion of D3 bordering the Tenderloin. Despite mainstream opposition from Chinatown and North Beach, Peskin won.
Peskin’s Supervisor Tenure: 2001-2008
Peskin was not the “leader of the left” during his first two terms. That title went to Chris Daly and Matt Gonzalez. Peskin was seen as the consummate deal maker, the supervisor who could get things done (Daly was also a great deal maker).
Peskin was often in conflict with consummate deal maker Mayor Willie Brown. But the two had a lot in common. It tells you a lot about Peskin that he and Brown established a regular dining schedule and remain close to this day.
Early in his tenure Peskin created a template for district supervisors that greatly increased their power. He told colleagues that they should not interfere with land use decisions in other districts as they would not want supervisors to challenge what they were doing in their own district. This rule applied even when the outcome was not progressive. And it still largely applies today.
Peskin quickly proved a genius at rounding up votes. His ability to corral votes led his colleagues to elect him Board President after Gonzalez left the Board. The Board of Supervisors had some of its most productive period ever during the first two terms of the return of district elections. (For more on Peskin’s first four years see my January 11, 2005 follow up, “What Drives Aaron Peskin?“).
Head of SF Democratic Party
After leaving the Board Peskin maintained influence by serving as President of the San Francisco Democratic Party. In 2010 he and I had a dispute over who to support in the D6 Supervisor’s race. My allies and I backed Jane Kim. Peskin, the SF Democratic Party, SF Bay Guardian and virtually every progressive organization went all out for Debra Walker.
Jane Kim won.
Peskin and I didn’t speak for the next five years. I assumed we were done with each other for good. But I was wrong.
2015 Supervisor’s Race
When D3 supervisor David Chiu was elected to the Assembly in 2014, everyone in my political world urged Mayor Lee to appoint Cindy Wu as his replacement. At a small meeting with the mayor Rose Pak called on me to give a speech explaining why Wu was the best choice. My speech highlighted that if Wu were not selected, Aaron Peskin would win back his seat. I told Lee point blank that he would revive Aaron Peskin’s political career—something nobody in that room wanted, least of all the mayor— if he did not pick the best candidate for the job, Cindy Wu.
My prediction proved correct. In the worst decision of his mayoralty, Lee picked a D3 Supervisor who Peskin easily defeated in the election. To his credit Peskin offered to step aside if Wu wanted to run and said he would support her. Wu declined, and people like Pak, myself and others who had been disaffected from Peskin were suddenly back in his corner (See my March 31, 2015 story, “The Return of Aaron Peskin“).
Mayoral Prospects
Let’s start with Peskin’s negatives.
Public Safety
The top issue in the mayor’s race is public safety. That is not an area of Peskin’s strength. He backed Police Commissioners that many see as anti-police but has fostered good relations with the leadership of Central Station. He authored a July 2023 story for Beyond Chron on how the city should close drug supermarkets but then was criticized for moving a supervisor’s meeting to then-drug dealer filled UN Plaza.
In the week before the March 5 election Peskin appeared on KQED Forum to debate the “No on F” side against HSA head Trent Rhorer. Voters handily passed Prop F. Peskin also opposed Prop E to reform police practices; it also won big.
Can Peskin convince voters that he is tough enough and committed enough to aggressively fight illegal drug activities and other crimes? Can he convince them that opposition to police reforms and mandatory substance abuse treatment does not mean he cannot make the city safe?
This could prove an uphill fight.
Anti-Housing?
Peskin is seen by many as anti-housing and a classic NIMBY. San Francisco has never elected a mayor who is perceived as anti-housing. Peskin does not equate opposing upzoning plans with being “anti-housing” but many in the city do.
Peskin backed major housing upzoning plans in the Eastern Neighborhoods, Hunters Point Shipyard, and Treasure Island. The Residential Builders Association (RBA) endorsed Peskin against Mayor Lee’s choice in the 2015 Supervisor’s race.
In recent months Peskin has become far more outspoken against upzoning neighborhoods. State law requires San Francisco to build 82,000 units and Peskin has discussed suing the state to overturn the city’s Housing Element mandate.
I foresee Senator Scott Wiener crossing the city to condemn Peskin’s housing policies. The two have a long rivalry. Wiener does not want Peskin to be San Francisco’s next mayor.
Personal Negatives?
Peskin’s other challenge is that polls have long shown he has high negatives. A sizable portion of the electorate will not include him among their three choices. He is arguably a more polarizing figure than Mayor Breed.
RCV Problem?
Peskin’s inability to get second or third place votes from his rivals could doom his candidacy. I can see him getting second place votes from Safai and Lurie. Aware of the importance of rivals votes I expect Peskin’s campaign to avoid criticizing candidates other than Breed.
Controversial Votes?
Finally, rival candidates must be pouring through Peskin’s voting history to find votes that will trouble a citywide electorate. You cannot be in office as long as he has and not have some that will require explaining.
Let’s turn to the positives.
Strong Progressive Support
Peskin will likely get the most first place votes. Those thinking only ranked choice voting offers him a path to victory are wrong; as the first place finisher he would likely win any runoff (see Frank Jordan vs. Art Agnos, December 1991).
Peskin will sweep progressive support across the city. But that’s never been enough to elect a mayor. He needs more.
Here’s how he gets it.
A Path to Votes on the Westside
Peskin’s vocal opposition to significant upzoning will win him support on the city’s more conservative Westside. There’s a reason Peskin is attending Westside events highlighting the notorious Fontana Apartments near the wharf—that and the proposed 50 story building in the Sunset has Westside voters freaked out.
Many San Francisco voters opposed Scott Wiener’s state housing legislation (after all, if cities promoted housing state preemption would not be needed). Peskin is the only candidate in the race vowing to stop the state from controlling San Francisco’s zoning (supervisor Farrell also opposed some housing projects).
YIMBYs will mobilize to defeat Peskin. But housing development is not a front-burner issue in the 2024 mayor’s race. To the extent he can secure support from non-progressive voters via his housing stands, Peskin’s opposition to upzoning will broaden his support.
A Strong Manager for the City
Breed’s opponents have attacked the mayor for failing to manage the city. Peskin is seen by many who disagree with him ideologically as someone who knows how to get things done. I’ve had conversations with people who I assumed would oppose Peskin who say they would support him as someone who can get San Francisco back on track.
Labor and Tenant Support
Peskin’s candidacy puts him in competition with Ahsha Safai for labor support. Labor voters will likely rank them 1 and 2, helping both their campaigns.
Peskin also wins the votes of those most concerned about tenant issues. Criticism of his support for expanding rent control ignores that San Francisco voters have proved time and again that they support that agenda.
We Finally Have a Real Race
All five candidates have distinct personalities and backgrounds. We have an incumbent mayor in a city that has typically re-elected incumbents. We have an outsider in a city whose voters are mad at City Hall. We have a business person running when downtown, Mid-Market and other neighborhoods face an office and retail vacancy crisis. We have a planner and former union Political Director and organizer who has gone to bat for city workers. And we have a consummate deal maker in the city’s political wars who is mounting his first citywide campaign.
San Francisco now has a mayor’s race the city deserves.
Randy Shaw
Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco’s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s latest book is Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. He is the author of four prior books on activism, including The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century. He is also the author of The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco
