by Randy Shaw on June 30, 2025 (BeyondChron.org)
Mamdani 2025/ Gonzalez 2003
Two Inspiring Campaigns
A young insurgent running outside the traditional Democratic Party galvanizes young voters. His candor, optimism and energy bring support from voters of diverse ideologies and income levels. He infuses fresh air into the city’s tired politics. Despite entering the race at the last minute, his grassroots base propels him to a primary runoff against the establishment candidate.
The insurgent’s name is Matt Gonzalez. If Zohran Mamdani’s Democratic primary victory in New York City looked familiar, its because it so closely paralleles Gonzalez’s 2003 San Francisco campaign.
Why has San Francisco not seen a similar insurgent mayoral campaign since 2003? Moderates blame the city’s problems on “progressives” despite no insurgent progressive candidate even coming close to winning in over twenty years.
NYC 2025 v. SF 2003
Mamdani’s campaign differed from Gonzalez’s 2003 race in two key ways.
First, Mamdani’s chief opponent, Andrew Cuomo, was deeply flawed. Backed by $8 million from Michael Bloomberg and over $31 million overall, Cuomo spent little time energizing voters. He did not seem excited to even be in the race.
In contrast, Gonzalez faced a young, ambitious politician in Gavin Newsom. Many saw Newsom as a political lightweight heading into the 2003 campaign. But he always had a large moderate to conservative base. I helped prepare Gonzalez for one of his debates with Newsom. We were surprised when Newsom demonstrated a grasp of issues he had not shown as a supervisor.
So unlike New York City in 2025, San Francisco’s 2003 race had grassroots energy and rising young talent on both sides. In both cities the insurgent progressive was massively outspent. Newsom over Gonzalez 10-1, Mamdani was outspent nearly 4-1.
Newsom’s spending did not include the political value of Bill Clinton and Al Gore joining his campaign against the Green Party’s Gonzalez. The national Democratic Party was deeply concerned about the message a Green Party mayoral victory in San Francisco would send. Newsom’s campaign won over longtime Democrats by turning the mayoral runoff into a political loyalty test.
Mamdani’s campaign also differed from Gonzalez by the availability of ranked choice voting. Mamdani’s partnership with Brad Lander hugely impacted his victory. Landers’ alliance broadened Mamdani’s support, as voters saw a candidate accused of being hostile to Jews strongly backed by the city’s top Jewish official.
Gonzalez did not have a ranked choice option. So had no chance to overcome Newsom via a partnership with other progressive candidates in the field. But given resentment from Tom Ammiano backers against Gonzalez entering the race, it’s unlikely that the Green Party icon could have replicated what Mamdani did with Lander.
Is NYC More Open to Progressive Mayors?
That seems unlikely given NYC gave two terms to Rudy Giuliani and three to Michael Bloomberg. Neither could have been elected mayor in San Francisco (Lurie is rich but his career focused on starting a nonprofit for the homeless. Very different from Bloomberg).
But NYC also gave two terms to progressive Bill de Blasio (2014-21). And while de Blasio was not a Democratic Party outsider like Mamdani, he also was elected by a powerful grassroots campaign.
San Francisco’s last insurgent mayor’s race that gained traction was Jane Kim’s 2018 campaign. It came nowhere close to Gonzalez’s 2003 effort.
The Jane Kim-Mark Leno ranked choice voting alliance nearly brought a Leno victory. Yet San Francisco progressives were unable to offer a similar partnership to boost Aaron Peskin’s mayoral chances last November. Peskin did not get the second choice votes needed to win.
Different Outcomes
Had Newsom lacked his own strong grassroots campaign and the money for a huge absentee voter effort, Gonzalez would have won. He almost pulled off the upset of the century.
Mamdani has a stronger chance. Unlike Gonzalez, who was not a Democrat in 2003, Mamdani won the Democratic nomination. Major unions that backed Cuomo have already endorsed and are committed to mobilizing for Mamdani. There will be pressure on other elected Democrats to back their nominee instead of Democrats coalescing to save San Francisco from a Green Party mayor.
When ranked choice votes are tabulated on July 1 Mamdani’s already large victory margin will expand as he gets the vast majority of Lander’s second place voters. On election night Cuomo did not sound like a candidate interested in staying in the race. Cuomo’s name will appear on the ballot but multiple sources report that he is still deciding whether to run an active campaign.
As with Gonzalez, Mamdani’s primary victory has provoked an all-out establishment media attack on the progressive insurgent. The San Francisco media largely ignored Gonzalez in the November primary because he was not seen as likely to make the runoff. Once he did, and displayed a massive grassroots turnout of young voters, the establishment media went to work against him.
The Sunday SF Chronicle prior to the Tuesday December runoff had so many stories and columns attacking Gonzalez and praising Newsom that it read like a Newsom campaign mailer. It led my organization to launch Beyond Chron to offer another alternative voice (social media was still in its infancy)
Because polls repeatedly showed Mamdani running second to Cuomo he’s already experienced media attacks. The good news is that voters ignored the recommendation of the NY Times Editorial Board that they not include Mamdani among their top five ranked choices. Establishment media’s clout has vastly diminished since 2003.
I was a big fan of de Blasio when he ran but after he took office was disappointed over his housing policies toward tenants and his difficulty connecting with people. Mamdani appears to have the people skills that de Blasio lacked and that politicians pushing real change always need.
Matt Gonzalez left politics when his term ended in 2004. He returned to the San Francisco Public Defender’s office where he continues working as one of the nation’s top criminal defense attorneys. Since that time the city’s left has not produced a candidate with his charisma, openness to those with different views, and overall ability to win a citywide mayor’s race.
I have my thoughts on why this is the case. What are yours?
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Randy Shaw
Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco’s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s new book is the revised and updated, The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco. His prior books include Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century.
