By Joe Garofoli, Political Columnist March 10, 2026 (SFChronicle.com)
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California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks speaks earlier this year during a press conference at the state convention at Moscone Center in San Francisco.Lea Suzuki/S.F. Chronicle
California Democratic Party leaders are so worried about the rising chance that Democrats will be shut out of the governor’s race that they’re spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on polling in an attempt to publicly shame the lower-ranking candidates to bow out of the race.
Most polls show two Republicans — Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News commentator Steve Hilton — leading the race, with the top eight Democrats splitting the remaining support. The top two finishers, regardless of party, advance to the general election in November. The lack of a Democratic candidate in the state’s top race could depress turnout for key House races in California, hurting the party’s chances to retake control of the House and put a check on President Donald Trump’s power.
The chances of two Republicans advancing is now 24%, according to an online tool developed by political data expert Paul Mitchell that runs thousands of simulations of the race. Despite that number, California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks said at a press conference Tuesday that “I take issue with the term ‘freak out,’” asserting that “I sleep very well at night.”
But Hicks appears to be sleepless enough that he announced the party is spending “multiple six figures” to conduct and post six surveys of the race. Hicks also bristled at my suggestion that this was a genteel, transparent form of public shaming — information that donors and voters could use to pressure lower-performing candidates out of the race, thus increasing the chance that at least one Democrat advances to November.
“If people are afraid of information, you have to ask why,” Hicks said. “This is simply conducting credible, real time publicly available information. And if you feel shamed by information and data that’s available, then I think everyone has to inquire exactly why. So I will leave that to others to determine how it makes them feel. Certainly, that’s not my intention.”
It is the latest step Hicks has taken to try to winnow the field. On March 3, days before the deadline for candidates to file to be on the June 2 ballot, Hicks wrote an open letter to the Democrats in the race, telling them “it is imperative that every candidate honestly assess the viability of their candidacy and campaign.” Only one candidate, former Assembly Member Ian Calderon, heeded Hicks’ imperative. Other candidates pushed back aggressively. Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, the only Black candidate in the race, accused party leaders of trying to push out candidates of color, who are the lowest performers in most public polls.
“Bernie Sanders was right. Our political system is rigged,” Thurmond said in a video posted on social media. “The California Democratic Party is essentially telling every candidate of color in the race for governor to drop out. Instead, they want a billionaire, a man who doesn’t even bother showing up for work in Congress, and a person who tears into her staff and reporters on the regular — all white candidates — to stay in the race,” referring to opponents Tom Steyer, Rep. Eric Swalwell and former Rep. Katie Porter.
Hicks said the letter “speaks for itself, and a response, even from a superintendent that I respect, doesn’t change its message. It also doesn’t change the facts and the reality of the race.”
Thurmond received 2% of the vote in a Public Policy Institute of California survey last month, while former Secretary of Health and Human Services Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former Controller Betty Yee all received 5%. None of the candidates received more than 15%. Ten percent of the respondents didn’t support any candidate, and 48% of the respondents said they weren’t following the race closely.
Thurmond and other lower-polling candidates responded to the polling effort with the same defiance they displayed toward Hicks’ letter.
“This seems like another misguided attempt from the party to put their thumb on the scales in this race in favor of D.C. Democrats or billionaires,” Thurmond said of the polling effort. “There will be plenty of public polling. For the hundreds of thousands of dollars the party is spending on this, they could instead be working to flip a congressional seat red to blue to help us win back the House and impeach Trump.”
Becerra said, “Now the race is on, and I’m not surprised that the party is engaging. … I’ve won a statewide race election in California (as attorney general) and will do it again by meaningfully engaging voters across our great state.”
Villaraigosa’s campaign manager, Ajay Mohan, said the state party “would be better off spending money winning back the House after passing Prop 50 instead of running another needless poll in the governor’s race.”
Yee agreed, saying that even though there is no shortage of polling, the state party — which she was formerly vice chair of — commissioned another costly poll “clearly aimed at narrowing the field. This unprecedented tactic raises legitimate concerns about the construction of the poll and its potential interpretations.”
The candidates also ignored a letter signed by two dozen Democratic Party county chairs last week, echoing Hicks’ missive: “If you do not have a clear, viable path to advancing to the general election as one of the top two finishers, withdraw your candidacy in order to consolidate our strength and secure a Democrat in the general election.”
On Tuesday, the author of that letter, San Diego County Chair Will Rodriguez-Kennedy, said he supported Hicks’ plan.
“I think that Chair Hicks is doing a good thing here. The more information we have is better for all of us,” Rodriguez-Kennedy said.
Rodriguez-Kennedy said that as an Afro-Latino, he is “sensitive” to Thurmond’s charge that the party is trying to purge its candidates of color. But given that his letter asked all candidates to evaluate their viability, he said, “that kind of falls flat.” Hicks said the state party’s polling will be done by California’s largest Black- and Latina-led polling firm and will over-sample Black, Latino and AAPI voters to ensure their voices are heard.
The only reason that candidates are likely to drop out at this point is the same reason they’d ever drop out: They run out of money, said Nancy Tung, chair of the San Francisco Democratic Party. She supported Hicks’ plan Tuesday.
“I think more information is always going to help people make better decisions,” Tung said.
The freak-out level among top donors is “about a middle level,” said Joe Cotchett, a prominent Burlingame attorney and Democratic fundraiser. Mark Buell, another Democratic fundraiser, said the biggest question he hears from fellow top donors is, “Who are you supporting? And I turn around and ask, ‘Who are you supporting?’ There is no buzz of any consequence with any of the candidates.”
But Rodriguez-Kennedy predicted that donors will be looking at the public polls closely.
“At some point, donors are going to look at this and (say to candidates), ‘This doesn’t look like it’s working out,’” he said.
Hicks nudged California’s most prominent and powerful Democrats — Gov. Gavin Newsom and Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi — to help persuade some Dems to leave the race. Newsom has waffled on whether he would get involved, telling CBS that while he agreed with Hicks’ letter, he wasn’t ready to “put his thumb on the scale” yet.
“I think we all share a responsibility, every party leader, every endorser, everybody who’s standing on the sidelines, who cares about California’s leadership, both at home and abroad, has a responsibility to be a part of what ultimately happens here,” Hicks said. “So certainly, having the leader of California, the current governor of the state being a part of that. I think he sees himself in that space. I certainly believe he is.”
March 10, 2026
Senior Political Writer
Joe Garofoli is the San Francisco Chronicle’s senior political writer, covering national and state politics. He has worked at The Chronicle since 2000 and in Bay Area journalism since 1992, when he left the Milwaukee Journal. He is the host of “It’s All Political,” The Chronicle’s political podcast. Catch it here: bit.ly/2LSAUjA
He has won numerous awards and covered everything from fashion to the Jeffrey Dahmer serial killings to two Olympic Games to his own vasectomy — which he discussed on NPR’s “Talk of the Nation” after being told he couldn’t say the word “balls” on the air. He regularly appears on Bay Area radio and TV talking politics and is available to entertain at bar mitzvahs and First Communions. He is a graduate of Northwestern University and a proud native of Pittsburgh. Go Steelers!
