by Randy Shaw on March 13, 2023 (BeyondChron.org
March 7 event promoting SFPD/DA funding
Key Issue in 2024 Elections
The public safety crisis is reshaping San Francisco politics.
This first became clear from the recall of former DA Chesa Boudin. It was amplified with the November 2022 election of DA Brooke Jenkins and Joel Engardio’s defeat of Gordon Mar in the District 4 supervisor’s race. In District 6, Matt Dorsey won on a strong anti-crime, pro-recovery platform. Independent groups backing rival Honey Mahogany sought to discredit Dorsey by highlighting his work for the SFPD; that strategy failed.
Last week, Supervisor Catherine Stefani announced her candidacy for the State Assembly. She did so a day after speaking at an event with Mayor Breed, DA Jenkins and Chief Scott in support of the $27 million SFPD/DA supplemental to be heard in committee on March 15.
Stefani has been a strong advocate for increasing public safety. But the timing of her announcement— the day after publicly backing more police funding—may not have been coincidence. Stefani tweeted last Thursday: “I have been fighting for public safety my entire career. Now, it’s time to bring that fight to Sacramento.”
Stefani appears to have a clear path to victory.
“democrats” vs “ideologues
Does San Francisco’s increased focus on public safety mean the city is more “moderate?” I see it differently.
I see a split between “democrats” and “ideologues.” Since district elections returned in 2000 every supervisor elected to represent the Tenderloin was a progressive. All supported community concerns about crime.
Matt Haney, the most recent, was extremely vocal about the need for more police. Like his predecessors, Chris Daly and Jane Kim, Haney is an unequivocal progressive.
Small “d” democrats care about what working-class residents of San Francisco think. They listen to small businesses and SRO tenants rather than ignoring their concerns.
Small “d” democrats care more about protecting immigrant-run restaurants and cafes than immigrants selling deadly drugs to low-income people.
Small “d” democrats respond to the pleas for public safety from those already living in affordable housing. Ideologues think that once such housing is provided their responsibilities to those residents ends.
Ideologues have a fixed world view unimpeded by facts. If they think police are a problem, they don’t want to fund them. If they think a mayor is controlled by big money interests, they make sure to consistently oppose “supporting” their power.
Ideologues only care about input from fellow true believers.
Only ideologues could look at what’s happening in San Francisco and oppose more funding for police.
Impact on 2024 Local Elections
Mayor Breed faces voters in November 2024. She is going all out on public safety.
As I wrote last week, Breed has no chance of winning re-election in 2024 unless the public’s confidence in her safety record improves. Rival candidates will be lining up to make the 2024 mayor’s race a plebiscite on Breed’s ability to keep San Francisco safe.
There will be at least four hotly contested supervisor races in 2024. Connie Chan in D1 and Dean Preston in D5 are expected to face major challengers. The open seats in D3 and D9 currently lack a clear favorite.
What issue other than public safety will potentially divide candidates in these four races? Full support vs nuanced opposition to market-rate housing? Whether the candidate is backed by Mayor Breed? Disagreement over whether San Francisco’s future depends on taxing businesses more vs less?
I don’t see any of those issues galvanizing voters as much as public safety. It will be far and away the top issue in Districts 5 and 9. D1 and D3 have less crime than these two districts but public safety will be a top if not the leading issue.
Last week, a Miraloma Park safety group held an evening meeting that occurred during a day long rainstorm. Yet over sixty people, including D7 Supervisor Myrna Melgar, attended. This is a community not known for drug dealing or crime. That so many attended despite harsh weather further confirms that safety is the biggest concern across San Francisco.
An even larger crowd attended a D8 Public Safety Town Hall last Friday night. Hosted by Supervisor Rafael Mandelman, residents again voiced concerns about the safety of San Francisco.
SF’s State and Federal Races
Public safety will also impact state and federal races in 2024.
If Scott Wiener runs for Congress in 2024—he’s formed an Exploratory Committee and its long been rumored this would be Nancy Pelosi’s last term— there could be a big scramble for his State Senate seat (there could also be multiple candidates running for Pelosi’s seat but that’s for another story).
Haney would be the favorite. But having just started a potential twelve-year Assembly career and as a close ally of the incoming Speaker, why would Haney give up rising power in the Assembly to run a citywide State Senate race? Haney has so quickly built Assembly alliances that a sudden switch to the Senate does not make sense to me.
Rafael Mandelman and Hillary Ronen could also run for State Senate. Both must leave office in 2024. Mandelman is a co-sponsor of the measure to increase police and DA funding and has been outspoken about public safety. Ronen has recently faced a major district backlash over rising crime and drug activities in the Mission; she has a chance to bolster her public safety credentials for a State Senate race by voting in favor of the $27 million supplemental.
I don’t recall public safety being a major issue in the Wiener-Kim 2016 State Senate race. But it will be next year.
San Francisco’s economic future depends on improving public safety. And more and more people concerned about safety are making their voices heard.
Randy Shaw
Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco’s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s latest book is Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. He is the author of four prior books on activism, including The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century. He is also the author of The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco
