by Randy Shaw on February 5, 2024 (BeyondChron.org)
Highlighting State and Bay Area Races
Elections officials are sending out vote-by-mail ballots for California’s March 5 election. Here’s my take on the key state and Bay Area races.
Prop 1: Mental Health Bond
I see Prop 1 as the single most impactful measure on the March ballot. California has failed to address its mental health crisis for over fifty years. Prop 1 is the biggest effort yet to finally do so.
Why is Prop 1 headed for victory? Last week’s LA Times story on Prop 1, “‘Universal frustration’: In California, a crisis so dire Republicans and Democrats are working together” explains a lot. It should be required reading for activists. The story described how California Governor Gavin Newsom—a prime Trump adversary—built a coalition with State Sen. Shannon Grove, a huge Trump ally, to address the state’s mental health crisis.
In The Activist’s Handbook I refer to this as coalitions rounding up the “unusual suspects.” It has longtime adversaries willing to become partners on key issues. That’s what happened with Prop 1.
Newsom’s alliance with Grove led the Republican Party to stay neutral. This likely assures passage. Newsom is taking on another big issue (like homelessness) that his fabled precedessor Jerry Brown did not address. It bolsters my October story that found Newsom the best California Governor of the past fifty years.
U.S. Senate
California’s next Senator will be Barbara Lee, Katie Porter or Adam Schiff. They will vote the same on major issues over 95% of the time. If Republican and ex-Dodger Steve Garvey finishes in the top two the runoff will be a landslide for the Democrat. Schiff is well ahead in polls, leaving a tight battle for the second spot.
SF’s Democratic Party
Democratic Party endorsements carry the most weight in highly partisan presidential election years. That’s why so much energy is going into competing slates for the SF Democratic County Central Committee (DCCC). DCCC endorsement in the November supervisor and mayor’s races could swing these elections. For example, mailers proclaiming either Connie Chan or Marjan Philhour the “Choice of Democrats” could easily decide the winner.
The “moderate” San Francisco Democrats for Change slate is out raising the “progressive” Labor and Working Families slate by a roughly 4-1 margin in both Assembly Districts 17 and 19. But there’s a lot of time for these numbers to change. And donations to candidates do not reflect what could be massive independent expenditures for slate cards backing candidates.
I realize candidates want to be seen as speaking for “working families” but noticed a lot of unions recently endorsed the Democrats for Change slate. Aren’t these unions composed of working families?
I’ve never seen more active campaigning for the DCCC. Typically, name recognition drove outcomes which is why so many current and former elected officials run. We’ll soon learn whether the door-knocking and voter outreach being done this election cycle made a difference.
San Francisco’s Props A, B, E F and G
Prop A: Affordable Housing Bond
San Francisco’s $300 million affordable housing bond (Prop A) addresses the city’s acute shortage of affordable housing. Voters seeking to address this crisis should vote Yes.
Unfortunately, the timing is not great for a bond needing a 2/3 vote in San Francisco (property values are not soaring, there is discontent around public services and the city has a budget deficit). The good news is that should Prop A not pass there could be a $10-20 billion regional housing bond on the November ballot.
This bond, already approved for the ballot by the legislature, must be approved by the ABAG Executive Board and the BAHFA (Bay Area Housing Finance Authority) Board by the end of June. BAHFA’s Advisory Committee voted recently to move forward. Those close to the scene are optimistic that the bond will reach the ballot. To all those long arguing that the Bay Area housing crisis needed a regional solution, that could finally come.
SF’s Prop B: Police Staffing
This ballot initiative involving police staffing levels is attracting the most money of any San Francisco measure. As I’ve written before, I don’t think most voters clearly understand what the measure does.
If Prop B passes, the city cannot raise police maximum staffing levels without a tax measure to pay for it. That “pay as you go” approach is usually pushed by conservatives to attack progressive measures as “unfunded mandates.”
But opponents of Prop B feel police staffing is too critical to be subjected to what they call a “Cop Tax.” One might think from the debate that San Francisco is coming close to its police officer maximum; no, we have nowhere near the number of officers current limits authorize.
No wonder voters are confused. And when voters are confused they typically vote No. Some progressives also oppose the labor-backed Prop B, increasing the likelihood of its defeat.
Prop E: Police Practices
This ballot measure offering improved police practices will win. I see the benefit of many of the changes but do not feel the absence of such reforms have held back the SFPD from closing down drug activities in the Tenderloin and SOMA.
Prop F: Treatment Reform
Prop F asks voters whether they want their tax dollars to continue to subsidize addiction or to instead be used to help addicts turn around their lives. The “freedom” to be a drug addict at public expense is not an argument that works for me. Nor do I see mandating drug treatment as a condition of receiving public benefits as “coercion.” Those already housed who refuse substance abuse treatment will still get their rent paid by the city. It’s a long overdue measure that an October poll showed has nearly 70% voter support.
Prop G: Algebra in 8th Grade
It’s a sad comment on SFUSD governance that a ballot measure is required for kids to learn algebra in 8th grade. Let’s hope a mammoth Prop G win sends a strong message to the School Board about respecting parent input.
Assembly
Catherine Stefani should get over 50% of the vote. She will easily win the November runoff.
East Bay State Senate
Nancy Skinner has been among the most effective members of the State Senate. She elevated the power of her East Bay district and was a powerful pro-housing, pro-tenant voice.
To keep that pattern going voters will choose between Berkeley Mayor Jesse Arreguin, AC Transit Board member Jovanka Beckles, Oakland Councilmember Dan Kalb, President of the California Labor Federation Kathryn Lybarger, and former Assemblymember Sandre Swanson.
It’s a star-studded field. The winner could be in office for the next twelve years so the stakes are high. The most likely outcome is a runoff between Arreguin and Lybarger.
Alameda County Supervisor
Alameda County also has a hotly contested supervisor’s race. The Board has a major say in Berkeley and Oakland, particularly over distribution of homeless funding. Progressive Keith Carson has held the seat for over thirty years and is not seeking re-election.
Top candidates include Oakland Councilmember Nikki Fortunato Bas, Berkeley Councilmember Ben Bartlett, former Emeryville Mayor and current City Councilmember John Bauter, Alameda County Board of Education Trustee Ken Berrick and former Oakland Unified School District board member Gregory Hodge.
I see a Bas-Bauter runoff. It will be a very policy-driven campaign.
Given the high profile candidates and the money being spent on ballot measure I foresee a strong voter turnout in March. Stay tuned for future stories on these races as Election Day nears.
Randy Shaw
Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco’s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s latest book is Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. He is the author of four prior books on activism, including The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century. He is also the author of The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco
