Farrell is the first choice among respondents, followed by London Breed and Daniel Lurie
by KELLY WALDRON JUNE 12, 2024 (MissionLocal.org)
If voters were to head to the polls to elect a new mayor today, Mark Farrell would likely come out on top in first-place votes, a poll commissioned by his campaign shows.
The poll, conducted by Impact Research — whose past clients include President Joseph Biden, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama — shows little headway for Mayor London Breed since The San Francisco Chronicle published its poll in February.
Since that time, Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin has joined the race, but the top three contenders remain the same: Farrell would be the first-choice candidate for 23 percent of respondents; followed by Breed, with 21 percent; and Daniel Lurie, a Levi Strauss heir and nonprofit CEO, with 20 percent.
Farrell remains first choice among likely voters, poll shows
23%
Farrell
21%
Breed
Lurie
20%
Peskin
17%
Safaí
4%
Other
5%
Undecided
11%
500 likely voters were surveyed by phone and online in English, Spanish, Mandarin and Cantonese between June 1 and June 6. Source: Impact Research, via Mark Farrell’s campaign. Chart by Kelly Waldron.
Peskin is ranked second-to-last, and would receive 17 percent of the first-choice votes, according to the poll, followed by Supervisor Ahsha Safaí, with a dwindling four percent. Eleven percent of respondents said their first choice remains undecided, and five percent said they would choose another candidate. More than 50 people have entered the race.
The margin of error for this poll is 4.5 percent which, in effect, means any of the top contenders could be in first place.
“These results show a 3-way tie for first place, with Farrell’s support having plateaued while Lurie continues to gain ground. Ultimately, Lurie’s field leading favorability reflects that he’s best positioned to prevail in a rank choice voting contest,” said David Binder, the pollster for Lurie’s campaign.
Jim Stearns, a political consultant for Peskin’s campaign, said he does not comment on other people’s polls.
The results are suboptimal for Breed who, during her campaign, has put a positive spin on the state of the city: She has recently touted declining crime rates, what she calls the city’s “enlightenment period,” and events such as a recent impromptu Skrillex rave.
In the survey, 67 percent of respondents gave Breed a negative favorability rating, and 56 percent said that “things in San Francisco are going poorly, and we need a drastic change to get back on track.”
Those results are not markedly different from those obtained by the Chronicle in February. In that survey of 812 likely voters, 71 percent of respondents disapproved of Breed’s performance as mayor
While other candidates have commissioned their own polls, Farrell’s campaign is the first to publicize any results, presumably because it means spreading a good word.
“Our campaign has been in first place since launch, we are taking nothing for granted, and have no intention of easing off the gas,” said Farrell, in a statement.
Farrell echoed a similar sentiment at his recent campaign headquarters launch in West Portal. During the event, his team applauded their campaign’s progress, but warned against becoming complacent. “We cannot rest on our laurels,” he said.
Farrell’s campaign also released select responses to other questions, including an open-ended question where respondents were asked to describe each candidate. Eleven percent described Farrell as “experienced,” while 6 percent described him as “moderate.” Farrell’s campaign would not disclose whether these were the most common words received.
Lurie received the highest favorability rating, 39 percent, followed by Farrell at 36 percent and Peskin at 26 percent.
Impact Research conducted the survey over the phone and web, in English, Spanish, Mandarin and Cantonese from June 1 to 6. Responses from 500 likely voters were collected.
Requests for comment were made on Wednesday morning to the Breed, Lurie, Peskin and Safaí campaigns, and this story will be updated when they reply.
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KELLY WALDRON
Kelly is Irish and French
Sand grew up in Dublin and Luxembourg. She studied Geography at McGill University and worked at a remote sensing company in Montreal, making maps and analyzing methane data, before turning to journalism. She recently graduated from the Data Journalism program at Columbia Journalism School.
