by Randy Shaw on December 16, 2024 (BeyondChron.org)
Daniel Lurie, Connie Chan, Michael Moritz, Jackie Fielder
What Voters Wanted for 2025
San Francisco politics in 2024 was a roller coaster: the prospects of mayoral candidates went up and down. The same was true for the moderate versus progressive political fight. Where did we see consistency? In Daniel Lurie’s campaign, where slow and steady won the race.
Here’s our take on 2024’s most significant political happenings. And what it portends for 2025.
A City in Crisis
San Francisco began 2024 in crisis. Downtown office vacancies, a steep tourist decline, open-air drug markets, and long vacant storefronts all damaged the city’s image. San Franciscans visiting other major U.S. cities came back wondering why they had rebounded from COVID but San Francisco had not.
People began 2024 very discouraged about San Francisco. The mayoral election reflected this.
The Mayor’s Race
In Grow SF’s February 2024 poll a whopping 68% of San Francisco voters said the city was on the “wrong track.” Only 20% felt the city was on the “right track.” The San Francisco Chronicle poll of voters from February 14-18, 2024 echoed this; it found more than 70% of voters disapproving of Mayor Breed’s performance.
Is it any wonder Breed lost? Or that moderate voters switched to Daniel Lurie and Mark Farrell?
I always felt Lurie could win. Insiders kept telling me that San Francisco would never elect a wealthy, non-politician outsider. That we weren’t like Los Angeles or New York City.
But ranked choice voting was perfect for Lurie. 2024 was also the perfect year for an outsider running against candidates whose tenure at City Hall made them “insiders.” Daniel Lurie ran a great campaign. This fact was not widely recognized until votes were counted.
Board of Supervisors
The supervisor races occurred in a context of many blaming the Board rather than Mayor Breed for the city’s big problems. Money poured into district contests at record levels.
Upsets are historically rare in supervisor races. But Connie Chan in D1, Bilal Mahmood in D5 and Chyanne Chen in D11 all won upset victories. And Danny Sauter and Jackie Fielder both easier victories than most expected.
Why did this happen?
The above winners either had the backing of the San Francisco Democratic Party or key city public employee unions. The latter clearly brought victory to Chan and Chen. Sauter’s leading opponents had the support of neither.
I predicted that the ranked choice voting strategy of EJ Jones and Clyanne Chen would upset Michael Lai in D11. But I thought Jones would get the most first place votes of the duo; I did not recognize the power of Chen’s union support.
Fielder was the latest candidate in the Ammiano-Campos-Ronen political tree; they have always won in D9. I thought D9’s public safety problems and Roberto Hernandez’s long history in the district could change this dynamic; I was wrong.
Chan ran in an election cycle of heightened concerns about violence against Chinese-Americans. The Chinese-American electorate on the Westside was also deeply upset by Prop K, which some saw as racially charged. Would Chan have defeated a moderate Chinese-American challenger? Did David Lee’s Assembly race bring more Chinese-American votes to Chan? Both questions have not been fully explored.
Chan won by over 1000 votes. She won by only 125 votes against Philhour in 2020. Chan won big despite running in a new district that added more conservative Sea Cliff voters. And despite Philhour having the Democratic Party endorsement whereas Chan had it in 2020.
You cannot understand San Francisco politics in 2024 without recognizing Chan’s electoral success. Next to Daniel Lurie, Connie Chan had the most impressive victory of all San Francisco candidates.
Prop K and Joel Engardio
D4 Supervisor Joel Engardio had a particularly roller coaster year. Riding high after the success of his Sunset night markets, 2024 began with the supervisor likely coasting to re-election.
That was before Prop K. Engardio is now fighting off a recall campaign. And even if the recall fails to qualify (as is likely) many believe a strong challenger could unseat Engardio in 2026.
Prop K’s bold plan to transform a portion of the Great Highway into a seaside park captivated the city. But it deeply angered Engardio’s D4 base. Voters expect district supervisors to put district needs over citywide interests. Opponents saw Prop K as a profound betrayal. A betrayal that particularly disempowered Chinese-American voters.
The November 2026 election is a long way off. But many D4 voters appear unwilling to forgive a supervisor who they saw as their champion when 2024 began.
Did “Moderates” Achieve Their Goals?
In 2024 “moderate” political forces united to, in their words, take back the city from the left. Big funders like Michael Moritz poured millions of dollars into a ballot measure (Prop D) to eliminate 65 commissions and increase mayoral power.
As I told San Francisco Chronicle reporter Joe Garofoli when he interviewed me for a story on Moritz that never ran, Moritz’s blaming commissions for San Francisco’s problems lacked a factual basis. The Prop D campaign promoted an invented narrative of San Francisco that did not correspond to political reality. Moritz would never have reached such success as an investor had he ignored facts and history as he did by throwing millions behind Prop D.
Prop D reflected a troubling reality: Many moderates refused to hold Mayor Breed chiefly responsible for city problems. It was always someone else’s fault. Many blamed Aaron Peskin, who represented one vote on an eleven member Board. Moderates willing to blame Breed supported Farrell or Lurie.
Many politically active people in 2024 only understand the city through the lens and tenure of Mayor Breed. Nobody who lived or worked in San Francisco under Mayor Willie Brown could buy Breed’s claims that the city’s mayor lacked sufficient power.
I suspect that those who gave Mayor Breed a pass will accept no excuses from Mayor Daniel Lurie.
Action Needed Now
San Francisco’s core problems— Downtown office vacancies, a steep tourist decline, ongoing open-air drug markets, long vacant storefronts, misguided health and homelessness policies—have remained or even worsened since COVID began.
Mayor Breed failed to effectively manage the city. She involved too few people in formulating city policies. She failed to hold department heads accountable. Breed alienated voices she needed to hear. She kept many stakeholders out of the loop.
Whereas former mayor Ed Lee promoted a big tent approach that brought diverse stakeholders together, Breed used the equivalent of a sleeping bag. Key city workers had their input ignored. The basis for policy decisions were often unclear.
I see Lurie as following Ed Lee’s successful model. But he must act quickly. San Francisco is impatient for positive change. Lurie must signal that he is moving to fix city problems within his first 100 days; that’s all the time people will give him before cynicism sets in.
On to 2025!
Randy Shaw
Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco’s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s latest book is Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. He is the author of four prior books on activism, including The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century. He is also the author of The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco
