by Randy Shaw on October 6, 2025 (BeyondChron.org)
As San Francisco awaits Congressmember Nancy Pelosi’s re-election decision, the signs are becoming clear. We break down the growing evidence and provide an early assessment of the three leading candidates to replace her.
The Evidence Trail
Nancy Pelosi has been a leading, high-profile national spokesperson for the Democratic Party since becoming the House leader in 2003, She has not played that role in 2025. Some of this shift is attributable to her no longer formally leading House Democrats. But I think Pelosi only ran in 2024 because she wanted to help shepherd through President Kamala Harris’ ambitious agenda in 2025. She did not run because she was eager to potentially again lead the fight against President Trump.
Pelosi will be 86 before the 2026 election. She recently lost 92-year old John Burton, her longtime friend and political mentor. Burton’s death offered a stark reminder of what a great life Pelosi has outside politics.
I always recall the Pelosi-Burton connection because I backed progressive Harry Britt in his 1987 congressional race against Pelosi. Britt was San Francisco’s champion for tenants’ rights. We saw Pelosi as a Democratic Party fundraiser with no grassroots connections. Burton kept telling me that I was wrong about Pelosi. He insisted she was an even bigger fighter for progressive causes than he was. He was right.
A Viable Rival
If she runs, Pelosi faces a well-funded rival campaigning nonstop for her job. Saikat Chakrabarti, a former chief of staff for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, will make this more of a contest than Pelosi has faced before. He has no chance to win, but the longtime incumbent may not want to have to attend the debates and/or campaign interviews that this challenge requires.
Scott Wiener and Christine Pelosi’s Increased Visibility
It’s been long assumed that Nancy Pelosi would be succeeded by either her daughter, Christine, or State Senator Scott Wiener. Both have increased their social media posts about national issues in recent months.
True, part of this could be Trump’s actions. But based on what I see in my feed, in previous years neither has posted so often about national issues. Both are likely laying the groundwork for their congressional campaigns.
Wiener vs Pelosi
Scott Wiener has been the most impactful state legislator on housing issues in California history. He has done as much to reshape the state’s future as any California legislator ever.
Wiener’s support for upzoning and overcoming the longtime political dominance of homeowners has brought him passionate allies. And powerful enemies. Backers of the recent recall of Joel Engardio attacked the supervisor as a Wiener ally who must be defeated.
Opponents of Mayor Lurie’s upzoning plan blame Wiener for promoting the measure. They seem more interested in attacking Wiener than the mayor. Wiener won key votes from Westside Chinese-American voters in his tight 2016 race against Jane Kim. Those voters have broken with Wiener over Prop K.
Scott Wiener has held elective office in San Francisco since 2010. He has never hesitated to take strong positions on controversial issues. That’s not the typical gateway to higher office, which is why so few politicians go that route.
Wiener has the demonstrated ability to get big stuff done in a challenging legislative environment. He also gives the city a chance to do what Harry Britt asked voters to do in 1987, which is to elect San Francisco’s first GLBTQ congress member.
Wiener’s allies will work day and night to elect him. He has a legendary work ethic—he’s reputed to have knocked on virtually every D8 door when running for supervisor—and has no trouble raising money for his campaigns.
Wiener starts as the likely frontrunner in the race.
Don’t Underestimate Christine Pelosi
It would be easy to see this contest as a referendum on Wiener. But many voters will see it as a referendum on Nancy Pelosi. That’s one why her daughter, Christine, can win.
I know firsthand that in 1987 Nancy Pelosi benefited from being the choice of her predecessor, Sala Burton. I talked to tenants who appreciated Britt’s leadership but who were voting for Pelosi because they wanted to honor the enormous contributions of Phil and Sala Burton.
Thousands of voters in June 2026 will have benefited from Nancy Pelosi’s actions. Many who like Wiener will nevertheless feel obligated to support Pelosi’s daughter.
Christine Pelosi is on the Democratic National Committee. She has long been active in the California Democratic Party. She’s been involved in countless campaigns and may well be better known in San Francisco than her mother was in 1987.
This will be a hugely funded and very competitive race. Saikat Chakrabarti’s campaign could be a deciding factor, as he will win progressive votes that would otherwise go to Pelosi. There is no ranked choice voting in this congressional election. Many on San Francisco’s left have never been big Nancy Pelosi fans. I can see them backing Charkrabarti even if it appears he cannot win.
We expect to hear Nancy Pelosi’s formal decision not to run soon after the November election. In the meantime, keep working to pass Prop 50 on November 4.
Randy Shaw
<I>Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco’s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s new book is the revised and updated, The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco. His prior books include Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century. </I>
