By Sophia Bollag, Staff Writer Updated March 3, 2026 (SFChronicle.com)
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California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks speaks during a press conference on Feb. 20 at the state convention at Moscone Center in San Francisco.Lea Suzuki/S.F. Chronicle
SACRAMENTO — The leader of the California Democratic Party on Tuesday began publicly urging Democrats to drop out of the governor’s race because of the possibility they will be locked out of the general election.
About 45% of California voters are registered Democrats, compared with about 25% registered as Republicans. But nine candidates are splitting the Democratic vote, versus just two dividing Republicans. As a result, the two Republican candidates — Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and former Fox News pundit Steve Hilton — could place first and second in the primary. Under California’s jungle primary system, where the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party, that would guarantee a Republican governor in liberal California.
On Tuesday morning, a website built by California election data expert Paul Mitchell to assess the likelihood of a Democratic shutout was pegging that possibility at about 15%. The website factors in recent polling and fundraising data and runs simulated primary elections to predict how much of the vote each candidate might expect to win.
“The likelihood of two Republicans effectively ‘locking out’ California Democrats from the contest for Governor in the General Election is relatively low,” California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks wrote in an open letter. “However, while it is implausible, it is not impossible.”
At its convention last week, the party failed to coalesce around one candidate to endorse.
Hicks didn’t name any candidates in his letter. But he urged all Democrats to assess whether they have a path to victory and to drop out before Friday, the deadline to file paperwork to appear on the ballot, if they don’t. If they decide to stay in the race, he said they should assess their viability again before April 15 and endorse someone else if they can’t win.
At a forum Monday evening, most Democrats in the race declined to do just that. Moderators asked all seven of the candidates participating which of their rivals they would endorse if pressed, and just three gave an answer. Billionaire Tom Steyer said he would pick former Controller Betty Yee. Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa said Yee and state schools chief Tony Thurmond. Yee said Steyer and Villaraigosa. No one said they planned to drop out.
Just hours after Hicks called on candidates to consider dropping out, Yee and Thurmond announced they had formally filed paperwork to appear on the ballot. Once candidates file paperwork, they cannot remove their names from the ballot.
“Bernie Sanders was right. Our political system is rigged,” Thurmond said in a video posted on social media. “The California Democratic Party is essentially telling every candidate of color in the race for governor in the race to drop out.”
The same afternoon, Villaraigosa began publicly calling for former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra to drop out, citing Mitchell’s website. Becerra responded on social media that unlike Villaraigosa, he has actually been elected to statewide office.
“And I’ll do it again,” Becerra wrote.
Villaraigosa, Yee, Thurmond and Becerra all garnered less than 5% of the vote in a February poll from Emerson College, alongside San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and former Assembly Member Ian Calderon.
The same poll found Hilton leading with 17% and Bianco tied with Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Castro Valley, at 14%. Former Rep. Katie Porter came in fourth place with 10% followed by Steyer at 9%.
Jodi Hicks, CEO of Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California, also urged candidates to drop out on Tuesday. She noted that it will be more difficult for Democrats to flip competitive U.S. House seats in California without a Democratic gubernatorial candidate at the top of the ticket to draw liberals to the polls.
“Two Republicans advancing to the general election for California governor would be beyond detrimental to the progress we have made in California to protect access to abortion and reproductive health care,” she wrote.
Planned Parenthood has not yet endorsed in the race.
Gov. Gavin Newsom has also not endorsed anyone in the race. On Monday, he said his attention has been elsewhere. That’s true, he said, for the California electorate more broadly, who have been focused on the constant stream of news coming from President Donald Trump’s White House.
Newsom acknowledged his own effort last year to redraw California’s congressional maps also took attention away from the race.
Newsom has mostly avoided answering questions about the contest. On Monday, he suggested that might change.
“When I’m out in the community, people aren’t talking to me about it, which is interesting this late, just weeks before early voting,” he told reporters at an event in the Bay Area. “As a consequence, I’m not directly as engaged as perhaps I might need to be.”
March 3, 2026
Politics Reporter, Sacramento
Sophia Bollag joined the San Francisco Chronicle as a politics reporter in 2022. She has covered state government from Sacramento since 2016 and has worked at The Sacramento Bee, The Associated Press and the Los Angeles Times. She grew up in the East Bay and graduated from Northwestern University, where she studied journalism and literature.
