by Randy Shaw on April 6, 2026 (BeyondChron.org)
Attacks from Trump’s FBI help Eric Swalwell
Can Democrats Make It Into Top-Two?
Two months before the primary election, millions of California Democrats remain disconnected from the state’s governor race. The combination of the March 28 No Kings marches and Donald Trump’s war on Iran have kept national rather than state politics on the front burner.
Trump’s out of control actions across the world deservedly dominate our attention. But two other factors have diverted attention from the governor’s primary.
First, no governor candidate has galvanized grassroots activists behind their campaign. Wouldn’t you think that California would produce at least one Bernie Sanders/Zohran Mamdani candidate who would inspire young people to get involved? Someone like Michael Tubbs, the former Stockton mayor running for Lieutenant Governor?
We always hear grassroots campaigns don’t work in the big state of California. But in a large field, a candidate capable of mobilizing activists could have prevailed.
Tom Steyer is espousing progressive values that have won him key progressive support. But his campaign has not mobilized a grassroots base.
The second reason for the lack of interest is the absence of an actively contested Democratic governor’s race since Gray Davis in 1998. In the last two contested elections powerful Democratic Party interests unified behind Jerry Brown in 2010 and Gavin Newsom in 2018. Brown didn’t have to mobilize people as he headed to a certain victory in 2010. Nor did Newsom in 2018. So it could be that California Democrats are out of practice in mobilizing for statewide governor primary races.
The Top Two Problem
A low-interest primary wouldn’t matter if California had not approved a top-two election system designed to help Republicans. But top-two was approved. As a result, a sleepy multi-candidate Democratic race could bring Republicans the top two finishers This would force a Democratic write-in candidacy to keep the governor’s office.
Paul Loeb recently wrote about how top-two brought Republicans the Washington Treasurer’s Office in a 2016 election where Clinton beat Trump by 16 points. The same could happen with far more dire impacts in California should no Democrat break from the pack.
Grading the Field
I previously saw San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan as potentially moving forward (“Is Mahan the Front-Runner in Governor’s Race?”). But despite public and financial support from his tech allies, Mahan is treading water. His campaign director just left, not a good sign.
I downplayed Eric Swalwell’s chances, saying in my February story that he “remains unknown to most voters.” But Trump Administration attacks on Swalwell last week has elevated his name recognition. The Guardian, New York Times, Politico and multiple other news outlets all covered how Trump’s FBI is trying to undermine Swalwell.
These attacks have likely built his support among voters. While FBI Director Patel’s plan to release an old case file of never proven charges against Swalwell seemed designed to hurt his campaign, it will instead do the opposite.
Swalwell also recently won the big labor endorsements, which includes the California Teachers Union. We could soon reach a point where top officials, including Governor Newsom, see endorsing Swalwell as the safest course in June.
Will Candidates Drop Out?
The campaigns of Antonio Villaraigosa, Xavier Becerra and Betty Yee are going nowhere. It’s time for them all to drop out. Tony Thurmond is California’s Superintendent of Public Instruction. His campaign is also going nowhere. He too should drop out.
This leaves Katie Porter and Tom Steyer. Both have polled well enough to stay in the race.
Steyer’s Progressive Support
Steyer has become the leading progressive choice. Solid Assembly progressives like Culver City’s Isaac Bryan and San Jose’s Alex Lee are backing him. His personally funded multi-million dollar campaign has boosted his name recognition. His commercials during Bay Area sporting events are omnipresent.
But Steyer lacks the institutional support that labor unions are giving Swalwell. Steyer will not be on many of the slate cards that low-information voters will use in casting ballots.
Porter’s chances remain focused on her being the only woman in the top tier. I still don’t think her personality resonates with enough voters to beat Swalwell or Steyer.
My assessment leaves three white Democrats while the four candidates of color are being asked to drop out. This racial breakdown led to the cancellation of a high-profile USC debate and probably explains why people are hesitant to urge candidates to leave a race they have no chance of winning.
I urged Senator Alex Padilla to run for Governor. He would have won easily and eliminated any risk of a Republican Governor. Kamala Harris would have also easily won. California’s great Attorney General Rob Bonta was not a lock to win but would have been the leader in the Democratic field. He also chose not to run.
If you wonder why the top three California Democrats running for governor are all white, it’s because the top candidates of color chose not to run.
Randy Shaw
Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco’s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s new book is the revised and updated, The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco. His prior books include Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century.
