by Randy Shaw on January 8, 2024 (BeyondChron.org)
The Stakes Are High
In 2024 the United States of America faces a presidential election whose outcome will either impose a dictatorship or the continuation of democracy. The stakes have never been higher. Here’s my national and Bay Area political forecast.
National Forecast
Did any serious commentator prior to 2016 foresee a would-be dictator winning a U.S. presidential election? Many contemplated dark times for America. But a democratically-installed dictatorship—if we can call the Electoral College “democratic”—-was not on the radar.
That’s what the nation faces in the November 2024 election.
Many of us view Joe Biden as the best President of our lifetimes Others disagree. For forecast purposes I see Biden defeating Donald Trump in another election only “close” due to the Electoral College. Biden’s victory will require a huge amount of activist and financial resources to keep America under the rule of law—-it’s a situation the nation has not faced since the Confederacy.
Democrats will retake the House by a solid margin. Senate control, however, remains a tossup. The best case and most likely scenario for Democrats could be a 50-50 split with the VP breaking ties. We could very easily see 2024 repeat the national results of 2020.
For updated and trusted assessments of House and Senate races I recommend DailyKos.com.
San Francisco
Thanks to voters overwhelming approving Prop H in November 2022—a measure I opposed that aligned the city’s mayor’s race with that of the presidential rather than the governor’s election—San Francisco’s 2024 election cycle will be its busiest ever. Here are the key races.
The DCCC
One reason the mayor’s race is getting little attention is that many of the city’s leading political activists are running in March for the San Francisco Democratic Party County Central Committee (DCCC). That plus high profile ballot measures makes March the focus, not November.
DCCC victories are driven by name-recognition and slate cards. That’s why so many current and former elected officials run for these posts—they have an advantage in both areas.
The DCCC has come to reflect the city’s political divisions. The DCCC’s opposition to the DA and school board recalls have prompted a “moderate” slate of opposition candidates (SF Democrats for Change) who backed both (I say “moderate” because that’s how other media and the public define it. Opposing those recalls was not “progressive”). “Progressive” DCCC candidates are running as the Labor and Working Families slate.
Who will win control of the DCCC? And does it matter?
It matters because some voters pay little attention to local politics. They rely on the San Francisco Democratic Party endorsements in casting ballots. The DCCC endorsement most impacts community college board and school board races which are off the radar of many voters. But given that recent supervisor elections have been decided by under 200 votes, even a small impact of a DCCC endorsement could sway the outcome.
It’s too early to forecast the outcome of the DCCC races because the likely voter turnout and funding levels for the competing slates are still unclear. The March results will offer insights as to what San Francisco voters are likely to do in November.
March Ballot Measures
There are five major ballot measures on the San Francisco March ballot. I wrote about the three placed by Mayor Breed (“Will Ballot Measures Boost Breed,” October 23, 2023). I still believe two of the three (Measures E and F) are a lock to win (the police reform and treatment initiatives). The mayor’s real estate transfer tax exemption for office to housing conversions (Measure C) remains little known. As I described in my story, opposition to the measure, if not met with a strong campaign from the yes side, could make it vulnerable.
The fourth initiative (Measure A) is a $300 million affordable housing bond. I support this 100%. I urge everyone to vote for it. But sadly, despite the city’s desperate need for more affordable housing funds, I doubt voters will pass it. Housing bonds still require a 2/3 yes vote. That’s always been a very tough climb. It will be even steeper in March amidst a huge city budget deficit and voter anger over the state of public services.
The fifth major ballot measure (Measure B) could draw the most money of all. Sponsored by Supervisor Safai with the backing of Supervisors Stefani, Melgar, Chan, Walton and Peskin, the initiative adds to the current police staffing level “only if voters in a future election amend an existing tax or approve a new tax that would fully fund police staffing and recruitment.” In other words, if voters want to increase police staffing levels they must approve a tax to pay for it.
Mayor Breed, Supervisor Dorsey and other opponents describe the initiative as a “Cop Tax.” They claim the measure wrongly conditions public safety on a new tax. Safai and backers argue that the mayor could use her budget authority to expand police staffing without a ballot measure.
Who will voters believe? It depends on how much each side spends on campaigns. Labor has pledged $1 million to pass the measure while opponents’ spending plans remain unclear. Ultimately, voter confusion as to what the initiative actually does could cause its defeat.
A sixth ballot measure (Measure G), allowing eight graders to take algebra, is certain to pass. This obvious action should not have required a ballot initiative.
Mayor’s Race
I’ll be writing often about this a lot after March. One forecast for now: I don’t believe the field of potentially winning candidates is complete. Former supervisor and acting mayor Mark Farrell may enter the race. So might Aaron Peskin. If Peskin does not run the progressive backers of Dean Preston, Connie Chan, Hilary Ronen and Shamann Walton will recruit an ally into the race. I can’t see San Francisco’s 2024 mayor’s race excluding a single candidate widely identified as “progressive.”
Supervisor Races
San Francisco has at least four supervisor races that will be heavily contested. In D1, the rematch between Connie Chan and Marjan Philhour is already in full swing. Philhour’s campaign has a billboard up in the district saying “Had Enough?” Chan is fighting hard to retain her seat. And history shows its hard to defeat a district-elected incumbent (Joel Engardio in 2022 was the first to do it).
D3 has three strong candidates, Moe Jamil, Sharon Lai, and Danny Sauter (Jconr Ortega is also running). Since 2000 D3 has only elected two supervisors, Aaron Peskin and David Chiu. This may be the most open supervisor’s race in modern district election history. It is a race made for ranked choice voting.
D5 will see incumbent Dean Preston challenged by Bilal Mahmood in a race that will also draw major outside funding. Preston has never run in the current D5 so the standard advantages of incumbency may be less. Plus Mahmood’s prior Assembly race and current DCCC candidacy gives him greater name recognition than the typical challenger.
D9 faces a potentially tight three way race between Jackie Fielder. Roberto Hernandez and Trevor Chandler. Here’s my October story on the D9 contest.
D7 Supervisor Myrna Melgar is often criticized by conservatives on social media but no potentially winning challenger has emerged.That could change in response to broad opposition to a misguided so-called “code enforcement” legislation Melgar introduced on November 28. Done at the behest of a private tenant attorney seeking more income, the battle over the legislation could convince a strong challenger to challenge Melgar.
Ernest “EJ” Jones is the leading candidate to replace Ahsha Safai in D11 (he was formerly Safai’s legislative aide). To my knowledge he is the only potentially winning candidate currently in the race.
Will the Board elected in November become more “moderate?” This outcome could be fueled by voters across the board feeling that City Hall must change. I don’t buy the argument that the Board of Supervisors rather than the mayor actually runs the city. But I hear from so many voters unhappy with the status quo that the same factors causing Mayor Breed’s low poll numbers could put incumbent supervisors in jeopardy.
Assembly
Catherine Stefani easily wins to replace Phil Ting in the Assembly.
Oakland
Crimes and violence are happening on a daily basis in Oakland. It’s occurring in a volume that is hard to believe. My analysis blames the mayor and District Attorney. An election to recall Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price could occur as soon as April. Chances of success are high. And if Mayor Sheng Thao doesn’t get the crime situation back in control and finally hire a police chief efforts to recall her will follow (one has already started).
Berkeley
Berkeley’s mayoral election will go a long way in shaping the city’s future. Councilmember Rigel Robinson (Update: Robinson announced on January 9 that he is resigning from the council and withdrawing from the mayoral campaign) represents the pro-growth, visionary side of the city council that has moved the city in an urbanist direction since 2021. Councilmembers Sophie Hahn and Kate Harrison represent the anti-development faction that previously controlled city politics.
I’ll be writing about the Oakland and Berkeley political races through Election Day.
With so much at stake let’s all work to ensure the 2024 elections bring positive changes across the nation.
Randy Shaw
Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco’s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s latest book is Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. He is the author of four prior books on activism, including The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century. He is also the author of The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco
