Feb 28, 2024 (wesodonnell.medium.com)
As we blow past the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine stands at a pivotal juncture.
They are now on their own.
And I’m furious.
Many people in my mostly conservative network have turned against Ukraine — veterans that I served with are posting memes like this:
Or this:
I know they’re just memes, but it speaks to a larger issue among conservatives in my country. Somehow, in their minds, the Ukraine war became a cause championed exclusively by the left and President Biden. So, opposing the left means opposing Ukraine.
This dwindling stream of US support casts a long shadow over Ukraine’s prospects. And Putin has been proven right, insofar as his prediction that the US would lose its “nerve” and stop supporting Ukraine if only Russia could wait long enough.
For several months, President Biden has faced hurdles in securing congressional approval for a new aid package for Ukraine, hindered by resistance from some factions within the “Putin-Wing” of the Republican Party.
Europe, too, is wrestling with its own constraints. Germany, for instance, has incrementally increased its military support but has refrained from supplying Ukraine with the critical Taurus missiles. The continuity of the UK’s assistance is also under a cloud of uncertainty with an impending general election.
Even if European support could somehow maintain its peak level — a situation quite removed from present-day reality — it still falls dramatically short when stacked against Russia’s extensive arsenal and resources.
Take, for example, France’s commitment to supply 3,000 155mm shells each month — a wonderful gesture no doubt — but one that barely scratches the surface in contrast to the daily onslaught of up to 20,000 shells from Russia.
With the tapering-off of allied support, the Russian military, adept at sidestepping sanctions and buoyed by largely unrestrained oil revenues, has ramped up its offensive.
This recent escalation has left Ukraine grappling with a critical deficit of essential military supplies, including artillery shells, air defense missiles like Stingers, and even Patriot missiles, compelling it into a defensive stance.
Yes, Ukraine has had some success shooting down Russian fighter jets, but it comes at a steep cost: Patriot munitions are not exactly plentiful.
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This shortfall in air defense capabilities has rendered Ukraine increasingly susceptible to aerial attacks, leading to a spike in civilian casualties.
Yet, in the face of these daunting challenges, Ukraine refuses to buckle under despair.
Instead, it has charted a course toward self-sufficiency, marked by resilience and strategic ingenuity. The Ukrainian defense sector is pivoting from emergency procurements towards bolstering domestic weapons production and forging strategic alliances with international defense firms.
This strategic realignment aims at fortifying Ukraine’s indigenous defense capabilities for the long haul.
Let’s dive into the heart of Ukraine’s quickly growing defense capabilities, a testament to composure and innovation under extreme pressure.
Starting with armored vehicles, there’s a palpable buzz around Ukraine’s defense circles, thanks to a staggering boost in the production of armored personnel carriers (APCs).
A recent update from Ukrainian officials highlighted a 3.4-fold increase in APC output from 2022 to 2023, with a five-fold surge from spring to December 2023 alone. It’s a notable feat, especially when considering the challenges faced.
While Ukraine might no longer be able to craft complete tanks from scratch, the revival in tank undercarriage production is nothing short of remarkable.
Repair workshops are buzzing too, with over 3,000 armored vehicles brought back to life in 2022, a testament to the tireless efforts of Ukrainian workers on the home front.
Shifting gears to drones, Ukraine’s skies are seeing a dramatic transformation.
From the onset of full-scale hostilities, drone manufacturing has skyrocketed, marking a hundredfold increase by November 2023.
Initially, a modest cohort of 35 companies were in this arena in 2022, but fast forward to October 2023, and over 200 entities, predominantly private firms, are crafting an array of drones for military use.
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Russian troops have started calling the drone ‘Baba Yaga’ — after a mythical Slavic evil witch.
A standout example of Ukraine’s self-reliant strategy is its deployment of first-person view (FPV) drones. These cost-effective devices have proven their mettle by offering versatility and precision in neutralizing enemy forces and decimating high-value targets such as armored vehicles.
Oh, Ukraine’s FPV drones have also completely changed modern warfare, sending countless Western military strategists back to school to create new maneuvers and combined arms doctrine that account for this deadly development.
The production numbers are staggering, with 50,000 FPV drones rolling out in December 2023 alone, setting the stage for a projected million drones in 2024. This explosive growth isn’t just about quantity; it’s a strategic expansion into long-range strike capabilities, including the development of a kamikaze strike drone boasting a 1,000 km range, signaling a bold leap in Ukraine’s offensive capabilities.
A report on Russian equipment losses highlighted that FPV drones played a pivotal role in approximately 35% of Ukrainian operations targeting Russian equipment over a single month-long period, destroying 388 pieces of equipment, including a high-value $25 million “Tor” air defense system, all at a fraction of the cost compared to more expensive US-made drones.
Air defense is another area where Ukraine is pushing the envelope. By July 2023, whispers of new indigenous anti-aircraft missile systems began to surface, fueled by successful test flights of missiles, some of which are rumored to be based on the Neptune’s design.
Not to mention the MacGyver-like innovation that drove the creation of the Franken-SAM with US cooperation.
U.S. Sending Ukraine the “FrankenSAM” for Air Defense
One of the more shocking things about Russia’s still ongoing invasion of Ukraine is Russia’s enthusiasm for targeting…
The electronic warfare (EW) domain is also witnessing a renaissance, building on a foundation established back in 2014. Investment and innovation have led Ukraine to the creation of specialized EW systems, some reportedly surpassing their Russian counterparts in efficacy.
This focus on EW is a strategic move to shield Ukrainian forces from aerial threats, particularly Russian drones.
Out of all of Ukraine’s military developments, the EW sphere is perhaps the most top secret, so there is little information to report on beyond this.
It’s worth noting that Ukraine is also manufacturing heavy weaponry, such as the 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled artillery units.
With at least 30 Bohdanas already produced during the conflict and none lost to enemy action, Ukraine is demonstrating its capability to support itself while the US is distracted with its own upcoming Civil War II.
The Bohdana is a 155 mm NATO-standard artillery caliber, wheeled self-propelled howitzer with a range of 40 km.
Finally, the push towards tactical equipment self-sufficiency is a narrative of national pride and practicality.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s statement in November 2023 underscores a significant stride toward domestic production of military essentials, from body armor to tactical gear.
It’s a bold declaration of Ukraine’s intent to equip its defenders with home-grown supplies, ensuring that, from helmets to rations, the Ukrainian military’s needs are met within its borders.
On the international front, Ukraine is actively seeking defense cooperation agreements, like the partnerships with Germany’s Flensburger Fahrzeugbau Gesellschaft for a repair center in western Ukraine and with Swedish BAE Systems for manufacturing infantry fighting vehicles on Ukrainian soil.
German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall AG will open a new plant in Ukraine to produce artillery ammunition in 2024.
These collaborations are part of Ukraine’s broader vision to not only meet the immediate demands of the war but also to lay the groundwork for a robust defense industry that could lessen its dependency on external aid.
Unfortunately, Ukraine has been forced down this path due to infighting among and between the Western democracies. Still, Ukraine is proving the old saying that “necessity is the mother of all invention” by taking control of its own military destiny.
How fast Ukraine can fully switch over to “self-reliant” mode remains to be seen, but they are making huge progress on becoming Europe’s newest military superpower.
This is crucial because as I’ve said before, Ukraine is Europe’s shield. Soon, they will also be Europe’s sword.
Written by Wes O’Donnell
Army & Air Force Veteran | Global Security guy at War is Boring, GEN, OneZero | Intel Forecaster | Law Student | TEDx Speaker | Pro-Democracy | Pro-Human Rights
