By Anabel Sosa,Senior California politics reporter March 13, 2026 (SFGate.com)
Conservative commentator and Silicon Valley entrepreneur Steve Hilton announces his campaign for California governor at the Pier Plaza in Huntington Beach on April 22, 2025. Hilton received support from 19% of likely voters in a recent poll.Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times/Getty Images
Republican Steve Hilton, a British-born former Fox News commentator, continues to lead the governor’s race as Democrats remain divided over a favored candidate.
Hilton received support from 19% of likely voters, according to a poll released Wednesday from the UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research and Politico. Following him is Tom Steyer, a billionaire Democrat, with 13% support. Former Rep. Katie Porter, current Rep. Eric Swalwell, both Democrats, and Chad Bianco, the Republican sheriff of Riverside County, are tied with 11% support.
Even with a June primary election approaching, the governor’s race remains crowded, and polling has been anything but consistent. Prior polls have shown Hilton has an edge with likely voters and that there is oscillating support for the top three Democratic candidates, with Porter, Swalwell and Steyer playing political musical chairs in the rankings. It is clear, however, that they are the top three Democratic contenders right now.
Those leading candidates are followed by the lingering Democrats with polling in the single digits. Xavier Becerra, the former health and human services secretary in the Biden administration, had 5% of likely voter support in Politico’s latest poll. Antonio Villaraigosa, the former mayor of Los Angeles, had 4%; Matt Mahan, the mayor of San Jose, had 3%; former state Controller Betty Yee had 2%; and state Superintendent Tony Thurmond had 1%.
Ian Calderon, a former state legislator who was already at the bottom of the polls, is the only Democrat to drop out before the state’s March 6 deadline to officially declare candidacy. The remaining Democrats will appear on the June ballot. California Democratic Party Chairperson Rusty Hicks in February subtly pressured candidates who were polling in the single digits to drop out in order to make room for voters to coalesce around one clear Democrat.
Overall, 41% of likely voters said they were most looking for the next governor of California to bring a fresh perspective from outside politics. Meanwhile, 27% said the most important quality would be having prior state government experience; 25% said they wanted someone with business experience; and 24% said prior elected office experience was most important to them.
Another section of the poll examined voters’ second choices. Nearly 40% of voters who said they would vote for Swalwell said Porter would be their second choice; 25% of those who said they’d vote for Porter put Swalwell as their alternative choice. Meanwhile, Steyer was a popular second pick, with 18% of voters who said they’d cast a vote for Becerra or Villaraigosa choosing him next.
In California’s primary election system, the top two vote-getters in June, regardless of party, will move on to the general election in November. That means the final race can be between two Democrats, between two Republicans, or between a Democrat and a Republican. California has a high number of registered Democratic voters, which usually makes it unlikely for a Republican candidate to reach the general election, but with several polls showing Hilton with a steady lead, it’s increasingly possible the showdown this November will be between a Republican and a Democrat.
The poll was conducted between Feb. 25 and March 3 in both English and Spanish. It surveyed a random sample of 1,004 registered voters who are likely to vote in the June primary. There is a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
In a separate poll also released Wednesday, this one conducted by Emerson College, Swalwell was in the lead with 17% support, followed by Hilton with 13%, Bianco and Steyer with 11%, and Porter with 8%.
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March 13, 2026
Senior California politics reporter
Anabel Sosa is the senior California politics reporter at SFGATE. She previously covered the statehouse and elections for the Los Angeles Times. She has a masters degree in investigative journalism from UC Berkeley. You can reach her at anabel.sosa@sfgate.com.
