by Randy Shaw on October 28, 2024 (BeyondChron.org)
Daniel Lurie
Lurie Seized Political Opening With Strong Campaign
According to last week’s San Francisco Chronicle poll, Daniel Lurie now leads the San Francisco mayor’s race. This did not happen out of nowhere. Evidence of his potential strength has long been available. Consider our past stories:
“Daniel Lurie has not announced a mayoral run but the SF Standard made it pretty clear he’s entering the race. Lurie brings what many see as a major advantage: he has not been part of city government. Voters blaming ‘City Hall’ for the city’s problems may prefer an ‘outsider;’ Lurie fits the bill.”
Beyond Chron, February 20, 2024:
“Lurie’s big picture theme that San Francisco can do better resonates with voters. So does his core message, “It’s time for a new era of accountable leadership,” which reflects both his and Safai’s view that the mayor’s race is about who can best manage the city. Lurie is strongest speaking to small groups and is spending a lot of time in such meetings.”— .
“The other candidates aren’t attacking Lurie. They don’t think he can win. But doesn’t a moderate anti-Peskin RCV strategy give Lurie a chance to get Breed and Farrell’s second choice votes?”
Beyond Chron, September 30, 2024:
“Lurie may well be the current frontrunner. He has at least as good a chance as his rivals to be elected mayor.”
Lurie Took Advantage of Two Openings
When Lurie announced his candidacy last fall I could not find a single political insider who thought he could win. But I saw Lurie potentially taking advantage of two big openings.
- No Clear Favorite
First, Lurie confronted a field of potential rivals lacking a clear favorite. Breed, along with Mark Farrell and Aaron Peskin who were projected to enter the race, had far higher negatives than outsider Lurie. David Chiu, the candidate most capable of beating Lurie, did not run.
Lurie started the race with much lower negatives than his rivals. As a political outsider he never had to cast a vote that alienated people. Lurie’s only negative was among people opposed to rich candidates who fund their own campaigns. If that were an obstacle to winning we wouldn’t have so many rich governors and senators.
So Lurie was perfectly positioned to be the candidate with the lowest negatives. That’s a huge boost in a ranked choice voting election.
Some mistakenly believe that Breed and Farrell could have stopped Lurie by attacking him earlier. I don’t agree. The unconvincing attacks now being made on his alleged lack of experience and failure to slash homelessness would be ineffective whenever made.
The attacks on Lurie’s ability to hold a job are embarrassing. And likely counter-productive. Here’s a guy who, in addition to his work with Tipping Point, chaired the host committee for Super Bowl 50, raising millions for Bay Area charities. Yet his rivals want voters to believe he cannot hold a job.
Voters clearly don’t agree.
Lurie’s negatives are low because the public does not associate him with the ethical taints they connect to his rivals. In an election highlighting claims of City Hall corruption, Lurie is completely free of that allegation.
- San Francisco’s Deep Crisis
The second opening Lurie could seize running as an outsider is that most voters believe San Francisco in a deep crisis. If the city were booming, voters would have proof of City Hall’s success and would not turn to an outsider.
San Francisco is not booming.
The city’s mood reminds me of 1991. But much worse.
Mayor Agnos held office (1988-1991) during the worst local, state and national economy of the preceding decade. Post-earthquake dissension, rising homelessness due to Reagan budget cuts, and the lack of revenue forcing budget cuts hurt the mayor’s popularity (the years of Feinstein budget surpluses ended just as Agnos took office).
Former Police Chief Frank Jordan was effectively a political outsider when he challenged Agnos in the 1991 election. Few thought he could win. But as with Lurie, not being part of City Hall was the perfect message to a voting base deeply unhappy with the city’s direction. Jordan won.
San Francisco’s 2024 electorate is even more unhappy. Many are despondent over the lack of progress since COVID.
Residents who visit New York City, Boston, Chicago or Los Angeles see cities that have returned to normal post-Covid. They do not have flagrant open-air drug markets. Their downtown’s are not vacant. They do not have sharp declines in conventions and tourist business.
No wonder voters want to give a chance to an outsider candidate pledging to take a fresh look at the city’s problems. An outsider who cannot be held responsible for City Hall’s scandals and misguided policies.
Backers of Breed and Farrell have spent millions attacking Aaron Peskin as the quintessential City Hall insider. They seemed unaware that their attacks on insiders also weakened Farrell and Breed.
Lurie’s Abilities
Ultimately, Lurie could not have seized these political openings if voters did not like him. Daniel Lurie has held countless small meetings. He has been out talking to voters day and night. He has run a virtually error-free campaign. I’ve yet to hear anyone claim he was rude, arrogant, or would not listen to concerns.
Lurie’s money wouldn’t matter if he could not convince voters he would be a good mayor.
San Francisco voters want change. We will soon learn who this demand for change elects as mayor.
Randy Shaw
Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco’s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s latest book is Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. He is the author of four prior books on activism, including The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century. He is also the author of The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco
