by Randy Shaw on June 15, 2026 (BeyondChron.org)
The Upcoming Political Feast
Are you are a San Francisco voter glad that the June campaigns are finally over? Enjoy the brief break. The November campaigns are already in high gear and the Wiener-Chan congressional race could trigger three hotly contested special elections in 2027.
Here’s our breakdown of the likely contests.
State Senate/D1 Supervisor
If Connie Chan wins, a special election will be held for her D1 seat. Mayor Lurie will pick Chan’s replacement. The appointee will then face a Special Election.
The mayor will assuredly appoint a moderate supervisor who would be part of Team Lurie. We’d see the same combination of Lurie’s endorsement and the influx of Big Money we saw in Alan Wong’s D4 race D1 voters would probably see even more of Lurie on the campaign trail, as no moderate has won D1 since district elections returned in 2000.
Scott Wiener led the field in June. If he moves on to Congress, Assembly member Matt Haney plans to run for Wiener’s seat. Haney would face Christine Pelosi, who has already announced plans to run when Wiener’s term expires in 2028. His elevation to Congress would move Pelosi’s race to 2027.
Haney v. Pelosi
A Haney-Pelosi State Senate race would cover all of San Francisco.
I confirmed Haney’s State Senate plans with multiple sources because I assumed he would be happy to stay in the Assembly until 2034. Haney has never lost an election. He was elected to the School Board in 2012, the D6 Supervisor’s seat in 2018 and the Assembly in 2022.
Haney didn’t just defeat former Supervisor David Campos in the April 2022 Special Election; he trounced the progressive Campos 63%-37%. This was in the Assembly district that covers most of the city’s progressive electorate.
Haney offers a record of political success against a candidate who has never faced voters. That would normally lead to a Haney walkover. But Christine Pelosi is not a normal candidate.
Pelosi’s strength goes beyond being the daughter of the city’s most popular emeritus politician. She has carved out her own support among labor and progressive groups through years of work with the California Democratic Party.
A lack of name recognition often holds first-time candidates back; it’s not a problem for Christine Pelosi.
If Wiener wins and a Haney-Pelosi special election happens, the contest will dominate San Francisco politics. It will be a true “which side are you on” moment for the city’s progressives. I see most going with Pelosi, particularly given how much Nancy Pelosi is helping Connie Chan.
If Haney Wins: The Assembly Special Election
If Haney defeats Pelosi there will have to be a special election to fill his Assembly seat. Board President Rafael Mandelman has long made it clear he plans to run for Haney’s seat if it is vacated. Mandelman has an Assembly campaign website and his campaign kickoff occurs on June 17.
Mandelman is termed out in November. So he can freely campaign for another office. The same is not true for a candidate that multiple sources have told me is set to run against Mandelman —D5 Supervisor Bilal Mahmood.
If it seems odd that Mahmood would run for Assembly before serving a full term as supervisor, that’s precisely what Haney did. Voters did not mind. The special Assembly election would likely not occur until November 2027.
So while the November 2026 elections have tremendous national significance, San Francisco voters could find themselves even busier with elections between Democrats in 2027.
It’s also possible that a special election to replace D9 Supervisor Jackie Fielder could occur in 2027. Reports have her leaving office soon, with the special election more likely this November.
Local political consultants could see 2027 as a banner year. The same is true for those who write about political campaigns.
Randy Shaw
Randy Shaw is the Editor of Beyond Chron and the Director of San Francisco’s Tenderloin Housing Clinic, which publishes Beyond Chron. Shaw’s new book is the revised and updated, The Tenderloin: Sex, Crime and Resistance in the Heart of San Francisco. His prior books include Generation Priced Out: Who Gets to Live in the New Urban America. The Activist’s Handbook: Winning Social Change in the 21st Century, and Beyond the Fields: Cesar Chavez, the UFW and the Struggle for Justice in the 21st Century.
